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Seven-Day Tornado Outlook 
March 19th through March 26th
Current risk: LOW. There is a low risk of severe weather today. The risk is mainly over Illinois and Kentucky. The tornado risk is low.
Current confidence level: MEDIUM.
Comment: A cold front will push across the region this afternoon and tonight. A few showers and storms will form along the front.
There is a low-end level one risk of severe weather. The tornado risk is low, but perhaps not zero. If a tornado were to form, it would be short-lived. Monitor updates.
Another cold front arrives on Sunday. I will monitor it.
Here is a graphic from the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning will be possible this afternoon and evening. Lightning will be possible this coming Sunday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? LOW RISK. A few of the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could be severe. The concern will mainly be quarter-size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. A low-end tornado risk.
I am watching a strong cold front this coming Sunday, as well. For now, the severe weather risk appears to be shunted southward of our region. I will keep a close eye on it.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? YES. Winds will gust above 40 mph today.
5. Will temperatures drop below 10 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 0 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
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Avoid burning brush and trash today. That is area-wide. Not just in the red flag warning.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Forecast discussion.
- Mild and windy today. There is an enhanced fire danger. Avoid burning brush, fields, and trash.
- The wind today will range from 20 to 40 mph. Gusts from 40 to 55 mph are possible. This could bring down some tree limbs and power lines.
- A few thunderstorms are possible along a cold front this afternoon and tonight. Some storms could perk up to severe levels with quarter-size hail, high winds, and a low risk of a brief tornado. Overall, the risk is relatively low. The risk is a bit higher north of our region.
- Another cold front arrives this coming weekend. At this time, Sunday will deliver the highest probability of showers and thunderstorms.
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Good morning, everyone
We are waking up to mild temperatures. Winds are beginning to increase, as well. A windy day ahead of us.
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Winds will range from 20 to 45 mph. Then, some gusts of 45 to 50 mph. This will combine with relative humidity levels in the 20s and 30s. This is a bad combination when it comes to field and brush fires.
A wind advisory is in effect.
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We will have an enhanced fire danger today into tonight. Avoid burning fields or trash.
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A cold front will push across the region tonight. This front will bring with it a broken band of showers and thunderstorms.
There are some disagreements in the data as to how far west to push the thunderstorm risk.
The Hrrr model keeps most of the region dry. The NAM 3K guidance pops the storms a bit farther west. This will need to be monitored.
You can see the low-pressure area on this map over northern Illinois. A windy system.
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The Hrrr model shows those gusty winds today.
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Thunderstorm chances.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region as having a low level one risk of severe weather. The scale goes from one to five.
One being the lowest. That would be the dark green zone. The light green is where thunderstorms are possible but likely below severe levels.
This is for this afternoon and evening.
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Damaging wind risk zone.
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And the hail risk zone
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The tornado risk zone
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A few of the storms could perk up to severe levels. The primary concern will be a few reports of quarter-size hail and 60 mph winds. The tornado risk is low but perhaps not zero.
The storm fuel map shows a little bit of energy in the region. Nothing like our last event.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Here is the Wednesday system.
Here is the NAM 3K model future-cast radar for the Wednesday storms.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
There is a small chance of a lingering shower on Thursday morning. Perhaps even a few wet snowflakes mixed in. Hopefully, there will be some clearing on Thursday behind the cold front. Sometimes, these systems wrap around a few clouds. Cooler temperatures.
A weak front will pass through the region on Friday. An isolated shower will be possible.
Another cold front will move across the region on Sunday. This one will be a bit stronger.
Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has a severe risk to our south.
Monitor updates.
Here is the system on the GFS model. Future-cast radar.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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Here is the future-cast radar.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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