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Seven-Day Tornado Outlook 
March 17th through March 24th
Current risk: MONITOR. I am watching Wednesday afternoon and evening. I am watching next Sunday.
Current confidence level: LOW.
Comment: A cold front will push across the region Wednesday afternoon and night. A few showers and storms will form along the front. There is a low-end level one risk of severe weather. Monitor updates.
Another cold front arrives on Sunday. We will need to monitor that one, as well.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning will be possible on Wednesday afternoon and night. Lightning will be possible this coming Sunday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. A few of the thunderstorms on Wednesday could be severe. The concern will mainly be quarter-size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. A low-end tornado risk.
I am watching a strong cold front this coming Sunday, as well. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with it.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? YES. Winds will gust above 40 mph on Wednesday.
5. Will temperatures drop below 10 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 0 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Forecast discussion.
- Warming trend today into Wednesday. An enhanced fire danger, as well. Avoid burning brush, fields, and trash.
- A few thunderstorms are possible along a cold front on Wednesday afternoon and night. Some storms could perk up to severe levels with quarter-size hail, high winds, and even a brief tornado. Moniot updates, as always.
- Another cold front arrives this coming weekend. At this time, Sunday will deliver the highest probability of showers and thunderstorms.
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Good morning, everyone.
Well, it was a long weekend.
The significant tornado outbreak left several communities damaged.
A significant hailstorm also moved across many counties. Owensboro’s damage will likely reach the tens of millions of dollars.
The NWS is conducting tornado surveys. Numerous tornadoes touched down in the region. Some of them were long-tracked and strong.
It may take a week or so to find all the tornado paths and rate them.
Quite a few people lost their lives in Missouri. It is likely one of the more significant death tolls in our region since the December 2021 tornado outbreak.
Thankfully, the system has pushed off to the east.
We will have a warming trend today into Wednesday.
We have an enhanced fire danger today through Wednesday. Avoid burning fields or trash.
We had numerous fires in the region last week. Let’s not have a repeat this week.
A cold front will push across the region on Wednesday afternoon and night. This front will deliver a band of showers and thunderstorms.
It will also bring strong and gusty winds. A high wind warning may need to be issued. Winds of 20 to 45 mph will likely develop over our region. Some gusts above 50 mph will be possible.
You can see the area of low pressure on this map over northern Illinois. A gusty windy system.
A few of the storms could perk up to severe levels. The primary concern will be a few reports of quarter-size hail and 60 mph winds. The tornado risk is low, but not zero.
The risk may be a bit higher over Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi. I will monitor trends.
The storm fuel map shows a little bit of energy in the region. Nothing like our last event.
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The rain may end as light snow Wednesday night/Thursday morning. We don’t expect accumulation. Just a reminder that it is still winter.
Another cold front will move across the region on Sunday.
This one may bring a threat of severe weather. Monitor updates.
The front will have a bit more moisture with it.
Here are the dew points. I usually look for 58 degrees and above when it comes to forecasting severe weather.
Dew point is a measure of moisture.
Here is the system on the GFS model.
Storm fuel is higher.
There is some spin in the atmosphere, as well.
We still have several days to monitor the Sunday event. Monitor updates, as always.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Here is the Wednesday system.
Here is the EC model.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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Here is the future-cast radar.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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