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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Friday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms could produce damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app. Have three to five way of receiving severe weather information. Additional storms are likely Monday night into Tuesday night. It is too early to know if some of those storms will be severe.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible next Tuesday.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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March 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 68° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 7:04 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Rain chances increase late at night from west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:36 PM
Moonset: 7:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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March 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms likely. It won’t rain all day. The showers and thunderstorms will come in waves. There will be dry periods of weather. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 65° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph becoming west.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 7:05 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° / SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 8 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:42 PM
Moonset: 7:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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March 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. If we have more clouds, then temperatures will be cooler. Keep that in mind. A slight chance of a shower lingering near the IL/TN State line.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Before 12 pm
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 48° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 52° to 54°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 7:06 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Winds will be from the: West 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:50 PM
Moonset: 7:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 66° to 68° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 7:07 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° / SE MO 42° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 44° / South IL 42° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 42° to 44° / NW TN 42° to 44°
Winds will be from the: South 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:59 PM
Moonset: 8:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 21, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing clouds from west to east. A slight chance of afternoon showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 4 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 68° / South IL 65° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 68° to 70° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 7:08 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 11 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 46° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 48° / South IL 46° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:10 PM
Moonset: 8:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 22, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Southeast to south 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 7:09 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 11 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 46° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 48° / South IL 46° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 9:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through March 23rd: Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. The risk has increased since the last update. Some of these thunderstorms could produce damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes. Monitor updates.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Mild temperatures today ahead of our next rain event.
- Showers and thunderstorms likely late tonight into Friday night.
- Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. The risk has increased.
- Cooler this weekend.
- Another chance of showers and thunderstorms next Monday night and Tuesday.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
No weather concerns today.
Shower chances will increase late tonight from west to east. Some rumbles of thunder will also be possible.
The primary change in the forecast has been the threat of severe thunderstorms. If you remember, I told you if the low were to track further north then our severe weather risk would increase. The low is tracking further north.
The primary concern will be Friday afternoon and evening. This is when the ingredients will come together for the potential of damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded us to a level two our of five severe weather risk. One being the lowest. Five being the highest.
SPC forecast comments.
I always watch CAPE levels during these events.
Here is the Hrrr model CAPE forecast. Think of CAPE as energy for thunderstorms to tap into.
I also watch dew points. Typically, dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s are sufficient for a severe weather risk.
Those blue colors represent the 60 degree dew point line. As you can see, it does push into at least a good portion of our local area.
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app. Have several ways of receiving your severe weather information in the event one of those ways fails.
Storms will be moving southwest to northeast at 50 mph. Fast moving thunderstorms.
It is possible we have some supercell type thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Those would be the ones that tend to be more scattered. Either way, there is a threat of severe weather.
Colder air arrives Friday night into Saturday. If clouds linger Saturday, then temperatures may remain in the 40s across portions of the area. If we have a bit of sunshine then 50s will be the rule.
Either way, it will be cooler.
A couple of light showers are possible Saturday. This would mainly be across northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.
Dry conditions Saturday night into Monday afternoon.
Our rain chances will once again ramp back up Monday night into at least Tuesday night. Locally heavy rain will be possible. I can’t rule out some water issues if some of the data is correct.
I will have to monitor the threat of severe thunderstorms. For now, the risk appears to be to our south. Monitor updates.
Rain totals from our first system won’t be all that great. Thunderstorms can enhance totals.
The risk of heavy rain increases next week. This is the seven day rain totals forecast (this includes tomorrow’s rain)
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These four graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
THESE WON’T BE UPDATED TODAY. I HAVE A NWS WEATHER CONFERENCE
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 16th through March 22nd
Click on the image to expand it.
THESE WON’T BE UPDATED TODAY. I HAVE A NWS WEATHER CONFERENCE
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers March 23rd through March 29th
Click on the image to expand it.
THESE WON’T BE UPDATED TODAY. I HAVE A NWS WEATHER CONFERENCE
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers March 29th to April 11th
Precipitation outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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SUMMER OUTLOOK
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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