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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Monday – The pick day of the week. Nice. Spring-like temperatures. Plenty of sun. Highs should be at or above 70 degrees! Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Above normal temperatures. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Monday night – Mostly clear. Lows around 46 to 52 degrees. Light winds. Above normal temperatures. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Tuesday – Some clouds and turning colder. High temperatures may occur early in the day with perhaps some lower 60’s over western KY and far southern IL, but falling into the 40’s and 50’s during the afternoon hours (from north to south). Winds becoming northwest and north at 10-20 mph and gusty. Below normal temperatures. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Tuesday night – Increasing clouds. Colder. Lows in the 30’s. Below normal temperatures. Winds from the north/northeast at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Wednesday – Cloudy and cold. Perhaps a few showers pushing in from the southwest and west – mostly late in the day. Highs may not get out of the 40’s. Winds becoming easterly at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Well below normal temperatures. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium.
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Who is up for some bonafide spring like temperatures?
Well, you are in luck. I have exactly what the doctor ordered. Temperatures for your Monday will reach 70 degrees for most of my forecast area…if not all. Can someone hit 75 degrees today? Not impossible.
Let’s be happy if we all reach the 70 degree mark. Anything above that will be icing on the spring cake.
Check it out! Check it out! Two days in a row of nice weather? I guess we earned it.
Forecast highs for Monday afternoon.
Now, you know that all good things must come to an end. Cooler temperatures are already going to be knocking on our door by late Monday into the upcoming work week. Monday will be the warmest and nicest day of the week. Not saying we won’t have some more nice days, this week. But, Monday is the PICK day of the week for temperatures. I don’t encourage anyone to play hookey, but let’s say hypothetically someone said “what would be the best day for me to play hookey from my responsibilities” – well, I guess I would have to say Monday. But, only after they you my arm.
A cold front pushes through the region on Tuesday and this will bring some cooler temperatures. Highs on Tuesday won’t be in the 70’s. 60’s are a good bet, perhaps early in the day for parts of the area. But, temperatures should fall during the late morning and afternoon hours from north to south. Cooler air will shove its way southward behind the front. Let’s take a look at what that looks like on the temperature map.
GFS Temperature forecast map for Tuesday around 1 pm. See the cold front/boundary? Warm to the south and much cooler to the north. The yellow and orange colors represent 50’s and 60’s. The blue colors are 40’s and 50’s. That boundary will push way south on Tuesday afternoon and night. See the second image. Image is from weatherbell.com
Click images for larger views
Wednesday temperatures continue to go downhill (I did warn you not to be the jackets and coats away just yet). Even cooler weather arrives. Some of us might not get out of the 40’s on Wednesday. That is well below normal for this time of the year.
Morning lows on Wednesday will dip into the 30’s for some of our counties. Chilly, coat weather.
Here are the Wednesday morning temperatures. Brrr – those are some 20’s to the north of Mt Vernon. 30’s for most of us. Just what we wanted…more cold air.
Temperature map for Wednesday around 12 pm – 1 pm (below). Bye bye warm air.
Those are even some 30’s back in southern Missouri on Wednesday. This is in response to our next weather maker trying to push east/northeast. Clouds and some precipitation back in Missouri – could keep it cooler. Not sure if it will be “that” cool. We will see. Either way, a big change from the 70’s.
You can see the warmer air has been shoved down to the Gulf Coast.
Fair warning – we will be on a bit of a roller-coaster ride for the next 2 weeks (temperature-wise).
A precipitation maker approaches our region from the southwest on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will bring some clouds and perhaps even some rain. There are differing opinions in the model data as to exactly how much rain will make it this far north. It appears areas further south and southwest will have more rain. I will keep an eye on the storm track.
The models are a bit sporadic on the timing of this rain event, as well. Some models bring light showers into parts of our area on Wednesday afternoon. Most of the data holds precipitation off until Wednesday night and Thursday. Bottom line…some rain showers will be possible towards the middle of the week.
Rain totals by midnight Wednesday per the NAM model (below). You can see the bulk of the precipitation is still well to our west/southwest.
Check out these amazing maps. These are the 14 day precipitation totals for our region (the PREVIOUS 14 days). Amazing stretch of wet weather. This is not the forecast for the next 14 days. These are the totals from the past 14 days.
Click image for a larger view. Images are from weatherbell.com
Let’s hope we can calm the weather pattern down for awhile. We do not need any additional heavy precipitation events.
See the extended discussion for a longer range look at cool temperatures heading our way.
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Adjusted wind direction and speed for Tuesday. Also updated the wording for falling temperatures on Tuesday from north to south.
Some uncertainty around rain chances on Wednesday. We will see how it goes. A storm coming out of the south may push some rain into the region.
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Rivers remain high in the region. You can view all of the latest river stages by clicking the link below. Then pick your local river. Remember to avoid flood waters.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Shawneetown, Illinois
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – Temperatures for Monday continue to be the wild card. Will some of us reach 74+ degrees? A good bet will be 68 to 72 degrees. Let’s see if we can go above those numbers!
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next few days? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is – ZERO
Operation SKYWARN Severe Weather Outlook indicates no risk for severe thunderstorms for
Monday – No Risk
Tuesday – No Risk
Wednesday – No Risk
Thursday – No Risk
Friday – No Risk
Saturday – No Risk
Will I need to take action?
No
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
This is the rainfall forecast through 7 pm on Wednesday. You can see the bulk of the rain is to our southwest. Graphic from weatherbell.com and you may click it for a larger view.
NOAA is painting some light totals into our area by late Wednesday evening. I think most of it holds off until Wednesday night and Thursday. Even then, not sure how much will fall, just yet. The storm track is uncertain.
Rainfall by Thursday evening. Notice the bigger totals are south and southwest. Now, if the storm track shifts then these totals will shift a bit. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Not anticipating any snow this week. Chilly rain possible around Wednesday evening/night.
Jim Rasor has a new blog. Check it out when you have time http://mylocalweather.net/forum/home
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
One thing to keep in mind as we move forward. Although we are going to see some cold shots of air over the coming weeks, that does not mean we are heading back to some extreme cold. It will just be cold compared to averages. The averages continue to go up with each passing week. Our average high for this time of the year is now 60 degrees. If we have temperatures that are 10 degrees below normal then that still puts us near 50 degrees.
Prepare for a bit of a roller-coaster ride. It is that time of the year. The seasons are changing. As the seasons change we will see the battle of the warm air nudging northward and the cold air nudging southward. Normally that puts our region in the middle. That will certainly be the case over the coming 14 days.
We are not finished with the cold air. As I have been saying for the last several weeks…this week into next week would bring a couple (at least) of cold air shots. Not extreme, but below normal.
We may still have to deal with some 20’s. Temperatures in the 20’s are showing up in the data for this coming weekend and early next week. Thirties are a sure bet and likely some readings below freezing. Keep this in mind. I am not a garden expert, but if you are wondering if we are finished with chilly or cold temperatures then the answer is no.
Several ripples of energy/disturbances are forecast to move through the area over the next couple of weeks. I do not see a strong signal for severe thunderstorms or tornadoes. There are some signs of a possible stronger storm towards the end of the month. That is too far out to say for sure. It does keep reappearing in the data. That means I will keep an eye on it.
The cold intrusions continue to show up in the data. Perhaps as long as this continues we won’t have to deal with too much crazy weather. At some point spring is going to fight back and win the battle. When this happens then we are going to deal with severe weather. Happens every year.
Let’s look at some of the long range temperature forecast maps. This is the temperature map for next Sunday morning. I have been saying some freezing temperatures would likely still occur. They are showing up in the data. Course this is a week away – we will see how it trends.
I like to show you anomaly maps. How much above or below normal are temperatures forecast to be?
Normal highs for this time of the year are around 60 degrees and normal lows are around 40 degrees.
Let’s compare
This is today’s anomaly map. See all of that red and pink? Those are WELL above normal temperatures! These numbers are in Celsius, by the way. Images are from weatherbell.com
Now, let’s move forward a bit in time
By next Sunday morning. See all of that blue? Those are below normal temperatures. The blue covers a large chunk of the Eastern United States.
Let’s look at next Monday morning. If the GFS is right then the below normal temperatures continue.
Then let’s pull ahead to next Tuesday morning. Well, you get the idea. Some chilly temperatures are still likely in our region.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
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