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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Friday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. I will keep an eye on Friday. It does appear the severe threat will remain to our south. As always, monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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March 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of mainly morning light showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before 10 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: East 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 7:03 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers near the KY/TN border.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated near the KY/TN border
Timing of the rain: any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 42° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:26 PM
Moonset: 6:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. A slight chance of an early morning shower near Hopkinsville.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated near Hopkinsville
Timing of the rain: Before 9 am
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 7:04 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 50°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:30 PM
Moonset: 6:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 68° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 7:04 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of late night showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:36 PM
Moonset: 7:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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March 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of rain. A thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph becoming west.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 7:05 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy with rain ending.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered. Ending.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 10 pm.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° / SE MO 33° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 33° to 36° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early in the evening.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:42 PM
Moonset: 7:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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March 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 7:06 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° / SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 42° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 42° to 44° / NW TN 43° to 46°
Winds will be from the: North 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:50 PM
Moonset: 7:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 68° / South IL 65° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 68° to 70° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 7:07 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 44° to 46°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:59 PM
Moonset: 8:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 21, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 68° / South IL 65° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 68° to 70° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 7:08 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 44° to 46°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:10 PM
Moonset: 8″55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through March 23rd: No severe weather concerns. I will keep an eye on Friday. For now, it appears the severe risk will remain to our south.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- A few clouds. Low-end shower chances.
- Warming trend. Spring temperatures.
- Rain likely Friday/Friday night. Perhaps a rumble of thunder.
- Cooler this weekend.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
Seeing how it is March, the weather overall will be quiet compared to what it could be. So, we can be thankful for that.
Each week without severe weather, during this time of the year, is one week closer to an end of our peak tornado season.
Our tornado season runs from late March into early June. Then again in late October and November. Of course, as we have seen, severe weather can occur all twelve months in our region.
We will have some clouds today and a few sprinkles around. Nothing to write home about.
Clouds may linger tonight over primarily Kentucky and Tennessee. A few light showers are possible both tonight and early Wednesday morning near the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
Rain totals will mostly be zero to a trace. Not much.
Wednesday and Thursday will be mild with spring-like temperatures. It should be nice outside.
Unfortunately, we have rain in the forecast for at least a small portion of the weekend. Friday is the primary day of concern.
A few showers are possible late Thursday night. This will be in response to an area of low pressure that will develop in Oklahoma and Texas. This low will push east/northeast towards our region.
Depending on the exact track of the low, there could be a few thunderstorms, as well. The further north the low tracks, the higher the chance of lightning.
Either way, it currently appears the threat of severe weather will remain to our south. If the low tracks further north, then a low-end severe risk could develop.
For now, the risk appears to stay to our south. I will monitor it, as always.
Widespread rain is likely Friday. Rain totals of 0.10″ to 0.40″ is the going forecast. Nothing too extreme. That is the good news. Our rivers could use a break.
The rain will come to an end Friday night.
Dry conditions are forecast Saturday and Sunday. It will be cooler behind our departing storm system.
Another system will approach the region Monday night and Tuesday. Perhaps a few showers.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These four graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 15th through March 21st
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers March 22nd through March 28th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers March 29th to April 11th
Precipitation outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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SUMMER OUTLOOK
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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