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Seven-Day Tornado Outlook 
March 14th through March 20th.
Current risk: Yes. Tornadoes are possible. Friday late afternoon and night into Saturday afternoon. Some of the tornadoes could be strong and long-tracked if everything comes together as some data indicates. Be weather-aware today into tomorrow.
Current confidence level: MEDIUM. I kept it at medium. There remain some questions on the extent of this event.
Comment: We have a threat of a significant severe weather event tonight into Saturday. The Saturday threat will mainly be east of the Mississippi River.
Thunderstorms are likely to form late this afternoon and evening and race east northeast at speeds of 70 mph. Some of the storms could produce large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. Some of the hail could be the size of golf balls. Wind gusts of 70 to 90 mph. A few of the tornadoes could be strong and long-tracked.
There remain some questions about this event. Some of the guidance shows very little severe weather activity. Other guidance is showing a full-blown tornado outbreak. This is not uncommon for a set-up like this.
The time frame of concerning locally will be 5 PM onward into Saturday.
There will be a second threat Saturday morning/afternoon east of the Mississippi River. Additional thunderstorms are likely. Some of those could be severe, as well.
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Here is the Storm Prediction Center/NOAA outlook for today and tonight.
Red is a level-four threat. Orange is the level three risk. Yellow is the level two risk. There are five levels. Five being the highest. Adjustments are still possible.
Do not get caught up in colors. Whether you are in red, orange, or yellow, severe storms are possible. A tornado or severe thunderstorm doesn’t care about our colors and levels. A tornado is a tornado, no matter what zone you are located in.
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We are in a hatched outlook. That means if tornadoes develop, they could be strong (EF2 or greater).
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Here is the wind threat.
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Here is the hail threat for Friday afternoon and night.
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Here is the Saturday severe weather outlook. Portions of the region are in a level one, two, and three risk.
We will need to monitor the cold front on Saturday morning. How far west it extends will determine the severe threat level for Saturday morning and afternoon.
If the front speeds up a tad, then there won’t be much of a risk late Saturday morning into the afternoon. This is one part of the forecast that I will be monitoring.
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Rainfall totals
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is likely area-wide Friday late afternoon and night. Another risk on Saturday. The Saturday risk will be ahead of the stalled cold front. I will need to monitor how far west the Saturday threat extends. Right now, the threat appears higher on Saturday east of the Mississippi River.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? YES. Severe thunderstorms are possible on late Friday afternoon/night and Saturday. Confidence is medium on the severe threat. Questions remain on how this unfolds.
If moisture return is lower, then the severe risk will be lower. I am closely monitoring trends.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Some low-end nuisance issues could develop on Saturday across portions of KY/TN. Some locally heavier rain totals are possible.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? POSSIBLE. Gusty winds are likely on Friday and Saturday. Similar to last week’s wind event. A few gusts could top 40 mph.
5. Will temperatures drop below 10 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 0 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Memphis, Tennessee, NWS morning briefing
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St Louis, Missouri, NWS morning briefing for my far northwest counties.
Forecast discussion.
- Warm and windy today with highs in the 80s. Southerly winds at 20 to 40+ mph. Blowing dust is possible in some counties.
- We have a risk of severe thunderstorms area-wide this evening into tomorrow afternoon. The Saturday threat will likely be east of the Mississippi River.
- Stay weather-aware today, tonight, and tomorrow. Have a severe weather safety plan. Storms will be moving at speeds of 70 mph.
- There remain questions about this event. It is possible we avoid an outbreak if the CAP does not break. This remains a question.
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Stay Weather Aware Today Into Tomorrow.
A potentially dangerous weather setup is unfolding. There is the potential for numerous severe thunderstorms later today into tonight. Another risk tomorrow east of the Mississippi River.
It will be warm and windy today with winds of 30 to 40 mph. Some gusts of 50 mph are likely. These will be gradient winds because of the deep area of low pressure.
Severe weather concerns.
A strong cold front will push into the region tonight and tomorrow.
Confidence in the threat of severe weather remains at medium. There remain some questions in the coverage of severe weather.
Some data shows the bulk of the event north and south of our region.
That is the outlier data, but I wanted to mention it. This is not a slam-dunk forecast. There are still some questions.
Here is some more data.
Most data shows a line of storms or supercells moving through our region.
7 PM tonight
Double click these two images to enlarge. That line will be moving east northeast at 70+ mph. Fast.
11 PM tonight
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The tornado ingredients over our region are high. These graphics show that.
SPC tornado forecast.
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The SREF model tornado ingredients peak over our region tonight.
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Late tonight.
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Wind shear will be very strong with this event. The jet stream will be ripping along.
Wind shear is the change of wind speed and direction with height. Or, in other words, as you move higher into the atmosphere.
Turning wind direction can produce storms that spin/rotate.
850 MB winds (a few thousand feet aloft) will be ripping along Friday night. Wind shear is one ingredient for severe weather.
The GFS model has 70+ knot 850 MB winds. That is strong.
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Lift is another ingredient for severe weather. We will have lift from an incoming cold front.
Another ingredient for severe weather is moisture. Dew points.
7 PM dew points
12 AM dew points
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Here are some NWS graphics.
These first four are from the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS office.
Some strong language from them. We are still a few days out. We will need to continue to fine-tune the forecast, but confidence in severe weather is increasing.
Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning threat.
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Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning threat.
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Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning threat.
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Saturday’s outlook. We will have to monitor how far east the front pushes. If it pushes farther east, then there won’t be a threat.
Monitor updates.
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Saturday’s potential event. We will have to see how far east the front moves.
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These graphics are from the Memphis, Tennessee NWS/NOAA office.
Timing
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Friday’s severe weather outlook. This runs through 7 AM tomorrow.
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Saturday’s threat zone. This could still shift around.
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Saturday’s tornado threat.
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Saturday’s damaging wind threat.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
The future-cast radar shows the Friday/Saturday system.
We will have to see how far west that Saturday (second surge) is placed.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr model
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Gusty wind will be another concern from Friday into Saturday.
This is a deep area of low pressure. I expect 20 to 35 mph wind gusts Friday into Saturday. They could be even higher at times.
That is because of the tight pressure gradient.
See those black lines? Those are pressure lines. Your home barometer measures those.
When they are tightly packed, that means strong and gusty non-thunderstorm winds. We call those gradient winds. A windy weekend ahead of us.
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Gusty winds Friday into Saturday. Perhaps even some gusts above 50 mph.
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Monitor updates concerning the weekend storm system.
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving severe weather information.
Your Beau Dodson Weather app is one of those ways.
Don’t forget that I have partnered with Weather Call, as well.
They will call your phone when you are in a warning. This is great for overnight tornado outbreaks.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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Here is the future-cast radar.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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