1:30 PM Video Update
12 PM Update
There are significant concerns about tomorrow.
The morning data paints supercells forming in southeast Missouri during the late afternoon and then moving east northeast at 70 mph.
This reams a highly conditional severe threat. If the dew points end up lower, then we may have little or no severe storms. If, however, the dew points are higher (as most data shows) then an outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will develop.
I have concerns about this event.
Make sure you have three or more ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Much of this event will occur overnight. Make sure your devices are not on mute. Make sure your weather radios are on.
The tornado ingredient forecast maps continue to increase their numbers.
This is for tomorrow evening.
The FV3 model is very concerning. It shows multiple tornadic supercells in our region tomorrow evening and night.
Other data is not as bullish. We are monitoring trends. The bottom line is we should be prepared for severe weather. Then, we hope for the best.
Here is the NAM 3K model. It also shows severe thunderstorms in our region tomorrow evening and night.
.
.
I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page. Link to those threads CLICK HERE
Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
.
Seven-Day Tornado Outlook 
March 13th through March 19th.
Current risk: Yes. Tornadoes are possible. Friday afternoon and night into Saturday afternoon.
Current confidence level: MEDIUM.
Comment: There remain questions about this event. Some data shows very little thunderstorm activity. A lot of data shows dew points struggling to reach the upper 50s and lower 60s. This raises questions about how this event unfolds.
At this point, we have to make a forecast. We will do our best; new data will arrive later this morning. This should help build confidence in how the event unfolds.
My Forecast
Thunderstorms will develop over Iowa and central/northern Missouri on Friday afternoon. The line would then move east northeast into Illinois. It may also impact southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and west Tennessee.
The time frame of concerning locally will be 6 PM onward into Saturday.
We will have to monitor how far south the thunderstorms form. There is a CAP farther south across southern Missouri into our region. A CAP can keep storms from forming. This will need to be closely monitored. If the CAP breaks, then severe storms are likely.
Thunderstorms could produce damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes.
There will be a second threat Saturday morning/afternoon east of the Mississippi River. Additional thunderstorms are likely. Some of those could be severe, as well.
.
Here is the Storm Prediction Center/NOAA outlook for Friday.
Red is a level-four threat. Orange is the level three risk. Yellow is the level two risk. There are five levels. Five being the highest. Adjustments are still possible.
.
We are in a hatched outlook. That means if tornadoes develop, they could be strong (EF2 or greater).
.
Here is the wind threat.
.
Here is the hail threat for Friday afternoon and night.
.
Here is the Saturday severe weather outlook. Portions of the region are in a level one, two, and three risk.
We will need to monitor the cold front on Saturday morning. How far west it extends will determine the severe threat level for Saturday morning and afternoon.
.
.
.
Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is likely area-wide Friday afternoon and night. Another risk on Saturday. The Saturday risk will be ahead of the stalled cold front. I will need to monitor how far west the Saturday threat extends.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? YES. Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday afternoon/night and Saturday. Confidence is medium on the severe threat. Questions remain on how this unfolds.
If moisture return is lower, then the severe risk will be lower. I am closely monitoring trends.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Some low-end nuisance issues could develop on Saturday across portions of KY/TN. Some locally heavier rain totals are possible.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? POSSIBLE. Gusty winds are likely on Friday and Saturday. Similar to last week’s wind event. A few gusts could top 40 mph.
5. Will temperatures drop below 10 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 0 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
.
A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
.
.
,
National Weather Service Paducah, Kentucky Thursday morning video update.
Forecast discussion.
- A warm day ahead of us. A few showers are possible across mainly southern portions of Missouri and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border southward. A slight chance of thunder.
- Warm conditions into Friday. It will become windy on Friday and Saturday. Wind gusts of 15 to 30 mph are likely. Occasionally, even higher gusts are possible.
- A stronger storm system arrives on Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorms are likely with that system. Some could be severe. There remain questions about thunderstorm development. Some data shows very little. Other data shows more. I will know more later this morning. Monitor updates.
.
.
Good morning, everyone.
Well, the concentration of this forecast is on the Friday and Saturday time frame.
A weak system is moving to our south this morning. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms in the region as we move through the morning hours, mainly over our southern counties.
It will be warm again today.
Severe weather concerns.
A stronger cold front will push into the region on Friday and Saturday.
We have been watching this system for two weeks.
Confidence in the threat of severe weather remains at medium. I did not increase it to high. There remain too many questions about this event for certainties.
The good news is that the high-resolution data will arrive today, which will help increase our confidence in the final forecast.
I will post some updates at the top of the blog later this morning.
Let me show you some of the differences in the guidance packages.
The NAM model forms severe thunderstorms around mid-afternoon and races them northeast and east.
.
Meanwhile, the Hrrr model shows it dry at that time with no thunderstorms.
This causes me to be a bit more cautious with the final forecast outcome. I can’t ignore the Hrrr guidance.
.
The SPC WRF model shows a line of severe storms with some supercells.
7 PM Friday.
.
Here is a blend of different models.
My confidence in severe weather from St Louis northward is a bit higher. It’s a bit lower south of there.
A lot of data does form a line of severe thunderstorms. The question is how far south does it extend.
.
Wind shear will be very strong with this event. The jet stream will be ripping along.
Wind shear is the change of wind speed and direction with height. Or, in other words, as you move higher into the atmosphere.
Turning wind direction can produce storms that spin/rotate.
850 MB winds (a few thousand feet aloft) will be ripping along Friday night. Wind shear is one ingredient for severe weather.
The GFS model has 70+ knot 850 MB winds. That is strong.
.
Lift is another ingredient for severe weather. We will have lift from an incoming cold front.
Another ingredient for severe weather is moisture. Dew points.
Some of the high-resolution data shows dew points struggling to reach into the upper 50s and 60s. Other data is more bullish. Again, this raises questions about the event and outcome.
This is the current Friday Storm Prediction Center’s/NOAA severe weather outlook. The red zone is the level four risk. The orange zone is a level three risk. There could still be adjustments.
.
Here are the dew points maps.
This is the Friday 7 PM map.
The blue color represents 60 degrees (dew points) and above. I watch for 58 degrees and above in the dew point department. You can, under certain circumstances, have severe weather with lower dew points. It just becomes less likely.
That blue tongue into our region is concerning.
This is the NAM 3K model.
.
The Hrrr model shows lower dew points.
.
The SPC WRF is concerning. It has higher dew points.
.
CAPE is fuel for thunderstorms. With this event, anything above 400 would be concerning.
This is a concern, as well. We do have fuel.
.
Here are some NWS graphics.
These first four are from the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS office.
Some strong language from them. We are still a few days out. We will need to continue to fine-tune the forecast, but confidence in severe weather is increasing.
.
These two graphics are from the Memphis, Tennessee NWS/NOAA office.
.
Again, here is the SPC severe weather outlook for Saturday.
We will also need to monitor Saturday east of the Mississippi River. Some additional storms will redevelop.
.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
The future-cast radar shows the Friday/Saturday system.
We will have to see how far west that Saturday (second surge) is placed.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
EC model
.
GFS model
.
Gusty wind will be another concern from Friday into Saturday.
This is a deep area of low pressure. I expect 20 to 35 mph wind gusts Friday into Saturday. They could be even higher at times.
That is because of the tight pressure gradient.
See those black lines? Those are pressure lines. Your home barometer measures those.
When they are tightly packed, that means strong and gusty non-thunderstorm winds. We call those gradient winds. A windy weekend ahead of us.
.
.
Gusty winds Friday into Saturday. Perhaps even some gusts above 40 mph.
.
Rainfall totals with the weekend system will vary based on thunderstorm activity. Here is the current outlook.
Double-click the image to enlarge it.
.
Monitor updates concerning the weekend storm system.
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving severe weather information.
Your Beau Dodson Weather app is one of those ways.
Don’t forget that I have partnered with Weather Call, as well.
They will call your phone when you are in a warning. This is great for overnight tornado outbreaks.
.
.
Here is the future-cast radar.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
\
.
.
.
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
.
We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Connected and Protected.
They Specialize in Audio, Video, Networking, Security, Cameras, Electrical, New Construction, Remodels, and retrofitting Jobs. Experience the future of smart living and unmatched security with Connected & Protected Solutions today.
Link – Click here
.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!
Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
.
.
https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
