Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Good morning, everyone.

Wow, was yesterday’s weather nice?  I hope you enjoyed it.

We will have a repeat today.  Enjoy.

A pleasant weather day is ahead of us.  Highs in the 70s!  It is going to feel great.

I do not have any weather concerns through this afternoon.

A southerly system will move through the region tonight and tomorrow.  This system will bring a few showers and thunderstorms back into the area.

The probability of rain will be a bit higher in the south vs the north.

Here is the rain probability for tonight (6 PM to 6 AM)

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This is the rain probability for tomorrow (6 AM to 6 PM).

That area in Tennessee looks odd because the NWS disagreed on the percent numbers.  The Nashville, Tennessee, NWS controls that area.  The Kentucky side is a different office.

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Rain totals will be on the light side.  Ranging from none to 0.15″.  Slightly higher if you end up under a thunderstorm.

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There will be a few rumbles of thunder with this system, as well.  Mainly along and south of the MO/AR and KY/TN border.  No severe weather concerns locally.

I can’t rule out some small hail with the thunderstorms.  Sub-severe.

The future-cast radar shows the Wednesday PM/Thursday system.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

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Thursday night into early Friday afternoon will be mild.  Increasingly breezy.  Dry.

A stronger cold front will push into the region on Friday and Saturday.

We have been watching this system for two weeks.  Unfortunately, trends are not on our side.

We are still three days out.  Thus, confidence is increasing, but it is still not certain.  I marked it as medium confidence today.

Tomorrow, we will increase it to high confidence if everything lines up.

Wind shear will be very strong with this event.  The jet stream will be ripping along.

Wind shear is the change of wind speed and direction with height.  Or, in other words, as you move higher into the atmosphere.

Turning wind direction can produce storms that spin/rotate.

850 MB winds (a few thousand feet aloft) will be ripping along Friday night.  Wind shear is one ingredient for severe weather.

The GFS model has 75+ knot 850 MB winds.  That is strong.  And, concerning.

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Lift is another ingredient for severe weather.  We will have lift from an incoming cold front.

Another ingredient for severe weather is moisture.  Dew points.

The high-resolution data is starting to come in.  So far, they are showing dew points high enough for severe thunderstorms.  Perhaps even tornadoes.

The trend a couple of days ago was lower on dew points.  But that was not the high-resolution data.  Now, we are moving into the day three period.  Better data arrives.  Thus, the confidence in the threat of severe weather is increasing.

I like to ramp up and not ramp down.  This means you don’t forecast 12 inches of snow five days out.  You start low and then ramp up as confidence in the event increases.

We are starting to ramp up the rhetoric. 

This is the current Friday Storm Prediction Center’s/NOAA severe weather outlook.  The orange zone is a level three risk.  There could still be adjustments.  I would not rule out a moderate risk somewhere in that orange zone, as well.

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Here are the dew points maps.

This is the 9 PM Friday map.

The blue color represents 60 degrees (dew points) and above.  I watch for 58 degrees and above in the dew point department.  You can, under certain circumstances, have severe weather with lower dew points.  It just becomes less likely.

That blue tongue into our region is concerning.

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CAPE is fuel for thunderstorms.  With this event, anything above 400 would be concerning.

This is a concern, as well.  We do have fuel.

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Here are some NWS graphics.

These first two are from the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS office.

Some strong language from them.  We are still a few days out.  We will need to continue to fine-tune the forecast, but confidence in severe weather is increasing.

These two graphics are from the Memphis, Tennessee NWS/NOAA office.

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Here is the SPC severe weather outlook for Saturday.

We will also need to monitor Saturday across western Kentucky and Tennessee.  Some additional storms may redevelop, mainly during the afternoon hours.  Monitor updates.

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The future-cast radar shows the Friday/Saturday system.

We will have to see how far west that Saturday (second surge) is placed.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

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Gusty wind will be another concern from Friday into Saturday.

This is a deep area of low pressure.  I expect 20 to 35 mph wind gusts Friday into Saturday.  They could be even higher at times.

That is because of the tight pressure gradient.

See those black lines?  Those are pressure lines.  Your home barometer measures those.

When they are tightly packed, that means strong and gusty non-thunderstorm winds.  We call those gradient winds.  A windy weekend ahead of us.

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Gusty winds Friday into Saturday.  Perhaps even some gusts above 40 mph.

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Rainfall totals with the weekend system will vary based on thunderstorm activity.  Here is the current outlook.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

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Monitor updates concerning the weekend storm system.

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving severe weather information.

Your Beau Dodson Weather app is one of those ways.

Don’t forget that I have partnered with Weather Call, as well.

They will call your phone when you are in a warning.  This is great for overnight tornado outbreaks.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather