.
Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
.
7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
.
.
.
.
Friday to Friday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible into the weekend.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Wednesday/Wednesday night of next week. Storms are possible. Some could be intense.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Locally heavy rain will be possible. Some flooding can’t be ruled out.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
.
..
.
March 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% MO Bootheel ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% NW TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
.
Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. Cool. Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% MO Bootheel ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% NW TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and have a plan B
Moonrise: 6:10 AM
Moonset: 5:23 PM
The phase of the moon: New
.
March 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers. Perhaps a thunderstorm. Rain coverage may be greater before 1 PM vs after 1 PM. Coverage will be higher over our southern counties vs northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% MO Bootheel ~ 80% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 80% NW TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 6:01 PM
.
Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. Cool. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% NW TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
Moonrise: 6:38 AM
Moonset: 6:23 PM
The phase of the moon: New
.
March 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% NW TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 55° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 62° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated AM. Scattered to numerous PM.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
.
Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% MO Bootheel ~ 90% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% NW TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 10 to 25 mph becoming west northwest at 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and have a plan B
Moonrise: 8:04 AM
Moonset: 8:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
March 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. Scattered showers possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% NW TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 7:03 PM
.
Monday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of a light shower. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:29 AM
Moonset: 9:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
March 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 65° to 68° South IL 65° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 68° West KY 65° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: West 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 7:04 PM
.
Tuesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A light shower will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 46° to 50° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:53 AM
Moonset: 10:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
A strong cold front will sweep across the region Wednesday and Thursday. The rain probabilities will need adjusting. There is disagreement on whether the front moves through the region Wednesday night or Thursday.
Rain will taper off behind the front. Look for adjustments on these probability numbers. A few storms could be severe, as well. A bit early for details, but monitor updates.
.
March 17, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mild. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% MO Bootheel ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% NW TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 72° SE MO 65° to 70° South IL 65° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° West KY 66° to 72° NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Strong thunderstorms will be possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 7:05 PM
.
Wednesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% MO Bootheel ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% NW TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 54° SE MO 45° to 50° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.
Moonrise: 9:20 AM
Moonset: 11:15 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
March 18, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% MO Bootheel ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% NW TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph behind the front (we will have to watch the timing of the front. It may move through Wednesday night)
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 7:06 PM
.
Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Clearing overnight. Cooler. A slight chance of a few remaining showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming west northwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.
Moonrise: 9:49 AM
Moonset: 11:15 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM
.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
.
.
.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
.
Today through March 20th. I am monitoring Wednesday into Wednesday night/Thursday of next week. Some storms could be intense.
.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
.
.
The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
72-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
..
Weather advice:
Avoid flood roadways.
Monitor river crest forecasts.
Weather Discussion
-
- Rain.
- Cool temperatures north of the frontal boundary.
- Thunderstorms next week (WED/THU). Some could be intense.
.
The summer outlook has been posted. The April and May outlooks were updated (see further down).
Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
.
Precipitation Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
.
A flood watch has been issued for portions of the region.
.
Very heavy rain fell yesterday and this morning across much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Then, eastward into portions of western Kentucky. One to four inches of rain has already fallen. Several more inches are possible over the coming days.
Check out the 24-hour rain totals. What has already fallen.
.
Heaviest rain totals will end up across Missouri and Illinois. Lesser totals as you travel further and further south in the region. That is what the forecast was and still is.
The ground is still wet from recent snow and rain events.
Thus, the end result will be flooding or flash flooding. Avoid flooded roadways.
Training is where showers/storms move repeatedly over the same area. We call that training precipitation. This too can enhance rain totals.
WPC/NOAA rainfall totals forecast through Monday.
.
We do have the risk of some flooding over the coming days.
The WPC has placed us in a risk of excessive rainfall.
The yellow zone is the higher risk area (green is lower). Either way, locally heavy rain could cause issues.
.
And Saturday. Click images to enlarge.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
.
This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
.
This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
.
This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
.
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.
Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 12th through March 18th
Click on the image to expand it.
.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
.
This outlook covers March 19th through March 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
.
.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers March 26th through April 8th
.
Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
.
March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
.
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
.
Precipitation Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
.
Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
