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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Friday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out some rain
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe some lightning.
Saturday – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 68-74. Temperatures might be a tad cooler over parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southeast Missouri. This will depend on cloud cover and rain coverage.
Winds: South at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread, at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out some rain
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning
Saturday Night – Cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy downpours possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out some rain
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Pockets of heavy rain.
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A small chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 68-74
Winds: Southwest winds 6-12 mph. Gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% during the morning and 20%-30% during the afternoon.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out some rain in the region.
Is severe weather expected? A locally strong storm is possible with gusty winds.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Sunday Night – Cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: South winds 6-12 mph. Gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning
Monday – Partly with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 68-74
Winds: Southwest winds 6-12 mph. Gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: South winds 6-12 mph. Gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy and very warm. Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 75-80 degrees.
Winds: South winds 10-20 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Gusty winds.
Our School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
These numbers are off by one hour starting Sunday. I have submitted a ticket to fix them.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- On and off rain chances in the weekend.
- A few locally heavy storms possible over the coming days
- Peak of the rain chances should be centered on Saturday afternoon and night.
- Above normal temperatures.
The main weather story over the coming days will be clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. The rain is not forecast to be as heavy (for most of the area) as the event on Wednesday and Thursday. However, portions of the region did not receive much rainfall, thus far. Those areas will receive more than the past week. That would include parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Rainfall totals over the coming days will vary from 0.50″ to 1.00″. Locally heavier rain is possible where thunderstorms occur. These totals are from Friday night through Monday morning.
The forecast, since last Friday, was for a widespread 1.5″-3.0″ rain event to occur between Tuesday and Sunday. Half of the region has met or exceeded those numbers. Still several days to go to see if it verifies for everyone else.
The severe weather threat over the coming days appears to be nil to small. A couple of strong storms can’t be ruled on Sunday. Perhaps centered more over eastern Arkansas into southwest Tennessee and northern Mississippi.
Temperatures will remain above normal into early next week. Some data pushes temperatures into the upper 70s by Tuesday. Perhaps even reaching 80 degrees. Either way, WELL above normal.
I am still tracking a potential cold snap around the 20th-26th. Somewhere in that time frame. Winter is almost over.
Let’s look at a few maps from weatherbell.com
These are the WRF high resolution model guidance future-cast radar images. What radar might look like over the weekend.
Keep in mind that the showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to perhaps widespread from time to time. They will be moving mostly to the north and northwest. There will be dry periods in between the rain.
This first map is for Friday night around 11 pm to 1 am. You can see some showers in the area.
These are future-cast radars images from a model. They won’t be exact. Keep the in mind. Green represents rain. Yellow and red represents moderate to heavy rain.
This next map is for Saturday morning around 6 or 7 am.
This next radar image is for Saturday evening at 6 pm-7 pm.
This next image is for Sunday morning at sunrise.
This next image is for Sunday at noon. Perhaps most of Sunday will end up dry.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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A few thunderstorms will be possible Friday through Monday morning. At this time the risk for severe weather appears low. A couple of strong storms will be possible on Sunday, but perhaps south of our area.
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Updated probabilities.
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A few thunderstorms this weekend could produce lightning and gusty winds.
Locally heavy downpours will also be possible.
Rivers will be on the rise. Monitor crest levels if you have concerns.
Monitor crest levels if you live near rivers.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
On and off rain chances this weekend. Rainfall amounts will vary considerably. Thunderstorms can cause locally heavier totals. Rainfall between now and Sunday night should range from 0.25″-1.00″ with pockets of greater totals likely. Heaviest totals might end up over southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, northwest Tennessee, and far western Kentucky.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
