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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible into the weekend.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. A few storms could be severe Thursday afternoon and evening. Wind is the primary concern and perhaps nickel size hail.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Locally heavy rain will be possible. Some flooding can’t be ruled out.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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March 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% MO Bootheel ~ 50% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 60% NW TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few intense storms with wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% MO Bootheel ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 70% NW TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few strong thunderstorms during the evening.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and have a plan B
Moonrise: 5:40 AM
Moonset: 4:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% MO Bootheel ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% NW TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. Cool. Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% MO Bootheel ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% NW TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and have a plan B
Moonrise: 6:10 AM
Moonset: 5:23 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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March 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers. Perhaps a thunderstorm. Rain coverage may be greater before 1 PM vs after 1 PM.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% MO Bootheel ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% NW TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 6:01 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. Cool. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% MO Bootheel ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% NW TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
Moonrise: 6:38 AM
Moonset: 6:23 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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March 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm is possible. Rain coverage should be higher late in the day vs earlier. This will be highly dependent on the taming of the cold front.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% MO Bootheel ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 40% NW TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 55° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 62° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated AM. Scattered to numerous PM.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A thunderstorm possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% MO Bootheel ~ 90% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% NW TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 10 to 25 mph becoming west northwest at 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and have a plan B
Moonrise: 8:04 AM
Moonset: 8:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A light shower possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 7:03 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 42° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 40° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:29 AM
Moonset: 9:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 7:04 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:53 AM
Moonset: 10:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through March 15th. A low-end risk of severe weather this afternoon.
The primary concern will be damaging wind and hail. Overall, this is a low risk situation.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
A few intense storms are possible this afternoon and evening. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app. A few storms could produce wind damage and hail. This is a low-end risk.
The risk is lower over Kentucky and Tennessee.
Avoid flood roadways.
Monitor river crest forecasts.
Weather Discussion
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- Increasing chances for locally heavy rain.
- Windy, at times.
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The SPC WRF is a bit further south with some of the heavier rain totals. Something to monitor.
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The NWS did issue that flood watch we talked about yesterday. See above.
The main concern will be on and off periods of showers and thunderstorms. Rain totals have not changed. Everything seems on track for a widespread one to two inches of rain with pockets of two to four inches.
The watch zone is where the risk of heavy rain is highest.
In addition to the above, a few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening. Perhaps a low-end level one severe threat. One being the lowest.
Overall, not overly impressed with the idea of widespread severe thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms, yes. A few storms could produce gusty wind and hail.
I can’t rule out some severe thunderstorm warnings. This is a change from previous forecasts.
The Hrrr model shows the thunderstorms later today.
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The Storm Prediction Center has a low risk of severe weather in our area today.
No additional severe weather through Monday of next week. So, that is good news. Thunderstorms enhance rain totals. The less thunderstorms the better.
The ground is still wet from recent snow and rain events.
Thus, the end result will be flooding or flash flooding. Avoid flooded roadways.
Training is where showers/storms move repeatedly over the same area. We call that training precipitation. This too can enhance rain totals.
Model guidance has been fairly consistent in developing a band of heavy rain across southern Missouri into southern Illinois. There is, however, disagreement on just how far south to push the heavier rain totals.
See the graphics below. You can see that there is some agreement about rain totals.
The problem will be the placement of a frontal boundary that will waver across our region. Small shifts north and south will impact rain totals. Keep that in mind.
Rain chances will peak, area-wide, Thursday into Friday night and then again Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will sweep across the region Sunday afternoon/night.
Let me show you some of the forecast rain totals from different models and the NWS.
WPC/NOAA rainfall totals forecast through Monday.
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EC model rainfall forecast totals through Monday.
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GFS model rainfall forecast totals through Monday.
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There are now two versions of the GFS model. Here is the second version.
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We do have a risk of flash flooding Thursday/Thursday night.
The WPC has placed us in a low-end risk of excessive rainfall.
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The, they have a higher risk Friday into Friday night. The yellow zone is the higher risk area (green is lower). Either way, locally heavy rain could cause issues.
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And Saturday
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 11th through March 17th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers March 18th through March 24th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers March 23rd through April 5th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook
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February Precipitation Outlook
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Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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