Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

.

SCROLL DOWN THE PAGE FOR UPDATES

.

Click on the words below to subscribe

Storm Tracking Links

Interactive local city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

*NEW* Zoom interactive radar (with storm chaser streams)
https://wtalk.co/AVWG7GM7

Real time lightning tracker system two.
https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

The app is for www.weathertalk.com subscribers.  Subscriber first and then download the app.

Apple users click here. Android users click here.

What you need to know

Key Points

1.   Severe thunderstorms are possible.  The main concern will be this evening into Tuesday afternoon.
2.   Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible.  The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts.  A secondary concern will be large hail and perhaps a tornado.
3.   Have your Beau Dodson Weather app on.  Check it.  Make sure you have not logged out of the app.
4.   Remember, a watch means to monitor updates.  A warning means to seek shelter.  A warning is a higher threat and means to seek shelter immediately.  Severe weather may occur in or near your location.

.

Here is Facebooks’ Severe Weather Q&A threads.
Link https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

.

The latest blog updates will be posted here at the top of Beau’s severe weather blog.

.

8:38 AM

The risk of severe weather has ended.  Locally heavy rain will continue.

.

8:30 AM

Severe thunderstorm warning has expired for Christian and Todd Counties.

.

8:08 AM

A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for southeast Christian and southern Todd Counties.

A line of storms is rapidly moving through these areas. The storms may occasionally produce wind damage. Very heavy rain will also occur with these storms.

Avoid flooded roadways.

.

8 AM

The risk of severe weather will likely end with the line of storms currently moving through western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.

The concern the rest of today will be locally heavy rain.  That could cause some flooding issues.

.

7:35 AM

Severe thunderstorm warning has expired for Calloway County.

.

7:33 AM

.

7:32 AM

PAH cancels Tornado Watch for Alexander, Union [IL] and Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Mississippi, New Madrid, Ripley, Scott, Stoddard, Wayne [MO]

PAH continues Tornado Watch for Gallatin, Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope, Pulaski [IL] and Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden, Daviess, Fulton, Graves, Henderson, Hickman, Hopkins, Livingston, Lyon, Marshall, McCracken, McLean, Muhlenberg, Todd, Trigg, Union, Webster [KY] till 11:00 AM CST

.

7:25 AM

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
FULTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY…
HICKMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY…
CARLISLE COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY…
GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY…

* UNTIL 115 PM CST.

* AT 721 AM CST, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WARNED AREA. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING, PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE INCH. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

.

7:11 AM

The tornado warning has expired for Graves County.

.

7:09 AM

Calloway County
Henry County

A line of intense thunderstorms is pushing into your county. This line of storms could produce damaging wind gusts. A tornado watch is also in effect. That means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes.

This line of storms occasionally has some areas of rotation embedded in it. Be weather aware.

The storm is moving east/northeast at 65 mph.

Flash flooding is also possible.

.

7 AM

Tornado warning

 

6:53 AM

Hickman County. The rotation was left your county.

McCracken County: There is currently no tornado warning for your county. I know some of the emergency alert systems on some phones were triggered by the Graves County warning.

Graves County: Radar shows rotation southwest of Mayfield moving into the Mayfield area. This is a radar indicated tornado. A tornado is possible with this storm. Seek shelter until this storm moves out of your area.

The storm is moving east/northeast at 60 mph.

Flash flooding is also possible.

.

6:49 AM

Hickman County. New tornado warning for the far eastern portion of the county. The storm will soon exit your county.

Graves County: A thunderstorm is moving into your county. This storm has a history of 60 mph wind gusts. Isolated wind damage will be possible in Graves County from this thunderstorm.

The storm had some rotation with it and short-lived tornadoes are possible.

Seek shelter until this storm passes your area.

The storm is moving east/northeast at 60 mph.

Flash flooding is also possible.

.

6:41 AM
A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CST FOR EAST CENTRAL HICKMAN COUNTY…

AT 639 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER FULGHAM, OR NEAR CLINTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD…TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL HICKMAN COUNTY.

.

 

6:30 AM

Graves County

A severe thunderstorm was pushing into southwest/west central Graves County. This storm does have some rotation with it, as well. Short-lived tornadoes are possible.

The storm is moving northeast at 60 mph. Damaging wind is possible with this thunderstorm.

Flash flooding is also possible.

.

6:28 AM

February 22, 2022
6:27 AM

Tornado Warning

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

Tornado Warning for…
Southeastern Fulton County in western Kentucky…
East central Hickman County in western Kentucky…

Until 645 AM CST.

At 626 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Cayce, or near Hickman, moving northeast at 65
mph.

This dangerous storm will be near…
Cayce around 630 AM CST.
Fulgham around 640 AM CST.

Flash flooding is also possible.

.

6:18 AM

Warnings have currently expired.

Monitoring for new ones.

The line of storms is producing strong and gusty winds.  Lightning.  Very heavy rain.

.

5:51 AM

.

.

5:50 AM

Graves and McCracken Counties.

A severe thunderstorm was moving through Hickman and Carlisle Counties. This storm is moving northeast at 70 mph.

The storm may produce damaging wind and hail. There is a tornado watch in effect, as well. That means that conditions are favorable for the possibility of short-lived tornadoes.

Be weather aware as this thunderstorm pushes through the area.

Another line of storms was located just behind this thunderstorm. This line of storms is also moving northeast. The line of storms could also produce wind damage.

Flash flooding is also possible.

 

.

5:45 AM

Pemiscot County, Missouri.

A line of severe thunderstorms is moving through the Missouri Bootheel. Movement is east/northeast at 60 mph.

Radar indicated some rotation entering Pemiscot County. This was near Gobler. Northwest of Steele, Missouri.

Be alert for the possibility of short-lived tornadoes with this line of storms.

.

5:43 AM

Mississippi County, Missouri.
Fulton, Hickman, and Carlisle Counties in Kentucky.
Obion County, Tennessee.

A line of severe thunderstorms is moving into the Missouri Bootheel. Movement is northeast at 60 mph.

This line of storms will push into far southeast Missouri and western Kentucky over the coming 30 to 45 minutes.

This line of storms could produce wind damage and nickel size hail. The line of storms has occasionally shown pockets of rotation. Be alert in the event a brief tornado develops. Seek shelter if you feel threatened by this thunderstorm.

.

5:38 AM

Double click the images to enlarge them.

.
5:30 AM

Dunklin, Pemiscot, and New Madrid Counties in Missouri.
Lake County, Tennessee.

A line of severe thunderstorms is moving into the Missouri Bootheel. Movement is northeast at 60 mph.

There is some rotation west/southwest of Kennett, MO. Be alert.

This line of storms could produce wind damage and nickel size hail. The line of storms has occasionally shown pockets of rotation. Be alert in the event a brief tornado develops. Seek shelter if you feel threatened by this thunderstorm.

This radar shows the line of storms entering Dunklin County.  There is some rotation southwest of Kennett, Missouri.

.

5:20 AM

Storms are moving northeast out of southern MO and AR.

.

5 AM

Southern Butler, southern Stoddard, and New Madrid Counties.

A line of severe thunderstorms is approaching from northeast Arkansas. It is moving northeast at 60 mph.

This line of storms could produce wind damage and nickel size hail. The line of storms has occasionally shown pockets of rotation. Be alert in the event a brief tornado develops. Seek shelter if you feel threatened by this thunderstorm.

.

4:55 AM

Dunklin and Pemiscot Counties.

A line of severe thunderstorms is approaching from northeast Arkansas. It is moving northeast at 60 mph. It will soon enter the Missouri Bootheel.

This line of storms could produce wind damage and nickel size hail. The line of storms has occasionally shown pockets of rotation. Be alert in the event a brief tornado develops. Seek shelter if you feel threatened by this thunderstorm.

.

4:45 AM

I am watching this line of  storms coming out of Arkansas.  It may have a higher chance of producing some damaging wind gusts.

.

4:20 AM

Cape Girardeau and Scott Counties.

A severe thunderstorm is moving through Stoddard and Bollinger Counties. This storm is moving into Cape Girardeau and Scott Counties.

This storm has a history of producing high winds. Wind gusts above 60 mph will be possible with this thunderstorm. Small hail, as well.

A tornado watch is also in effect for the area. Be aware that severe thunderstorms can occasionally produce a tornado. Be prepared to seek shelter if you feel threatened by this storm.

.

4 AM

A severe thunderstorm is moving through Butler County, Missouri and will soon impact southern Bollinger County and northwestern Stoddard Counties.

This storm has a history of producing high winds. Wind gusts above 60 mph will be possible with this thunderstorm. Small hail, as well.

A tornado watch is also in effect for the area. Be aware that severe thunderstorms can occasionally produce a tornado. Be prepared to seek shelter if you feel threatened by this storm.

AT 358 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHOOK, OR NEAR LAKE WAPPAPELLO STATE PARK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE
MARBLE HILL, ADVANCE AND LEOPOLD.

Storm Tracking Links

Interactive local city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

*NEW* Zoom interactive radar (with storm chaser streams)
https://wtalk.co/AVWG7GM7

Real time lightning tracker system two.
https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

.

4 AM

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
359 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2022

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
  SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
  NORTHWESTERN STODDARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
  NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 430 AM CST.

* AT 358 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHOOK, OR
  NEAR LAKE WAPPAPELLO STATE PARK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MARBLE HILL, ADVANCE AND LEOPOLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

 

3:50 AM

 

3:34 AM

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Paducah KY
331 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Southeastern Carter County in southeastern Missouri…
Central Ripley County in southeastern Missouri…
Southwestern Wayne County in southeastern Missouri…
Northwestern Butler County in southeastern Missouri…

* Until 400 AM CST.

* At 331 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of Hunter, or 9 miles north of Doniphan, moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near…
Hunter around 335 AM CST.
Ellsinore and Budapest around 340 AM CST.
Brush Arbor and Milltown around 345 AM CST.
Williamsville and Hendrickson around 350 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Paducah.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm may cause serious injury and significant property damage.

.

3:10 AM

Flood risk.

 

3 AM

A tornado watch will likely need to be issued shortly.

 

2:35 AM

Showers and thunderstorms will push into the region over the coming hours.  Some of the rain will be heavy.

The primary severe weather concern will be damaging wind gusts.  The tornado risk is low, but not zero.

There are currently no severe thunderstorm or tornado watches of warnings.

A flood watch continues for the entire area.

.

4:30 PM

Thunderstorms are possible this evening.  The bulk of the severe weather risk will be after midnight with the main band of showers and thunderstorms.

Here is the Hrrr future-cast radar.  What radar might look like.

As you can see, a long night ahead.

9 PM

3 AM

6 AM

.

3:30 PM

Memphis, Tennessee NWS Severe Weather Briefing

.
.

3 PM Update from the Paducah, Kentucky NWS.

.

12:25 PM Update

Some storms may form as early as this afternoon, but the main concern will be late tonight into Tuesday morning.  We will need to monitor tomorrow afternoon, as well.

Future-cast radar.  What radar might look like tonight.

Time is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM.

 

10:45 AM Update

The WPC has outlined our region for a risk of flash flooding.

Today and tonight

Yellow is the highest risk zone for flash flooding.

Tomorrow

Red is the highest risk zone for flash flooding.

Wednesday

I suspect Thursday will need to be added, as well.

A flood watch blankets our entire area.

.

Monday night through Tuesday night

A cold front and an area of low pressure will push into the region from the southwest.

Copious amounts of moisture will accompany the frontal boundary.  The Gulf of Mexico will be wide open.  That means heavy rain.

The primary time-frame of concern will be Monday night into Tuesday.  A widespread one to three inches of rain is forecast to fall across the region.  Locally higher amounts are certainly possible where thunderstorms train over the same area.

I would not be surprised if some locations topped three inches of rain by late Tuesday.

This rain will come on top of our recent heavy rain event.  That means flooding is a concern.  As always, please avoid flooded roadways.  There will be some.

A flood watch blankets the entire area.

A few of the thunderstorms could be severe Monday night into Tuesday.  The primary concern, at this time, is damaging wind gusts.  Large hail will also be possible.  The tornado risk is not zero.  As always, I would encourage everyone to stay alert tonight into Tuesday afternoon.

The rain will come to an end Tuesday evening.  Ending west to east.

There will be a lull in the precipitation Tuesday night and a portion of Wednesday.  Then, two more systems will advance into the region.

Let me show you one of the models.

The FV3 is a convective model.  It does well with thunderstorms.

It shows thunderstorms tonight into early Tuesday morning.

Some evening thunderstorms will be possible.  We will need to monitor these, as well.

These storms will be moving east/northeast.  This model believes some storms will be pushing through the region Monday evening.  This is around 10 PM.

These storms will have moved out of Arkansas and Tennessee into our area.

This is around 1 AM Tuesday.  Heavy storms across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Some of these could be severe.

Those storms will be moving east/northeast.  5 AM Tuesday future-cast radar.

This is what the FV3 believes will happen.  Placement may vary, of course. You get the general idea.

Thee FV3 shows storms continuing into the afternoon hours.  This will be highly dependent on the atmosphere being able to destabilize after the morning round.  That is not a sure bet.  Often times, the atmosphere can’t recover.  It will need to be watched.

This is what the Fv3 shows for the 3 PM to 5 PM time-frame.

.

Wednesday through Friday

Winter Storm

A winter storm will impact the region during this time-frame.

Additional rounds of heavy rain will occur Wednesday into Friday morning.  The peak of this precipitation event will be Wednesday night and Thursday.  An additional one to two inches of precipitation will occur.  Locally higher totals are possible.

That means rain totals from today through Friday could exceed four or five inches in some counties.

Here is the WPC/NOAA official rainfall forecast for this week.  Keep in mind, totals will vary and will be highly dependent on showers and thunderstorms training over the same area.  Where this training occurs is where the biggest rain totals will occur.

At this time, that is forecast to be somewhere along the Ohio River.

Eastern view

Double click images on the blog to enlarge them.

Over the last few days, that heaviest band has been slowly creeping northward.  A few days ago it appeared that Tennessee would be ground zero for the heaviest totals.

Western view

.

Winter storm watches, winter weather advisories, and ice storm warnings are a possibility Wednesday into Friday morning.

There remain significant questions about the exact placement of the freezing line.  This will, of course, be key to who receives frozen precipitation vs plain rain.

I am forecasting all types of precipitation in the region.  That includes a chance of thunderstorms, rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow.

At this time, the winter storm threat is higher across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  The risk could push into Kentucky and Tennessee, but there remain questions about this.  It is too soon for certainties on how far southeast the freezing line will push.

Accumulation snow and ice will occur with this event.

A frontal boundary will drape itself across our region.  This frontal boundary will divide below freezing air to the north with above freezing air to the south.

One or two waves of low pressure will ripple along this frontal boundary.  That means more precipitation.

If you have travel plans Wednesday night into Friday then you will want to monitor the latest forecast.  Some travel impacts are likely in our region.

Let me show you some of the difficulties with forecasting temperatures several days out into the future.

Here is the NAM model.  These are the Tuesday evening temperatures.

You can see, at this point, colder air pushing into the region from the west/northwest.  Warmer air ahead of the front.

Double click to enlarge the images.

These are the NAM model Wednesday evening temperatures.  The blue color is basically the 32 degree line.  Notice that portions of our region are above freezing and portions below.

IF the models trend colder then the wintry precipitation vs rain line will shift south and east.  That means more of the region will experience a winter storm.

This is very much like the event a week or two ago.  All precipitation types occurred in the region.

Thursday early afternoon temperatures.  Notice the placement of the 32 degree line.  Portions of our region are below freezing.  Portions are above freezing.  The exact placement of that line will need to be closely monitored.  A winter storm will occur in the colder air.  Plenty of rain in the warmer sector of this event.

Additional flooding will occur Wednesday and Thursday.

 

 

Know your families safety plan in the event severe weather develops.

Today’s severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

.

SUBSCRIBERS:  Download the WeatherTalk app to keep abreast of my latest information.

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

New ZOOM radar (with storm chasers)
https://wtalk.co/AVWG7GM7

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Satellite Data

Computers and tablets.  These two satellite links may not work well on cell phones.

Visible Satellite. This one is to be used during daylight only.  Be sure and hit refresh once you are on the satellite page.  Otherwise, the data will be old.
https://col.st/a5A0e

IR Satellite. This one shows cloud temperatures. Bright colors represent cold cloud tops.  That could mean thunderstorms.  Be sure and hit refresh once you are on the satellite page.  Otherwise, the data will be old.
https://col.st/R2fw1

Water Vapor Satellite.  This one shows mid-level moisture in the atmosphere.   Be sure and hit refresh once you are on the satellite page.  Otherwise, the data will be old.
https://col.st/xFVwx

.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Not receiving app/text messages?

Log in and out of your app.

USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are slowing or stopping the text messages.  Move to the app (not texts).

Make sure you have the correct app/text options turned on.  Find those under the personal notification settings tab at www.weathertalk.com. Red is off. Green is on.

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP.  ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here

.