June 9, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Scattered today, tomorrow, and Friday. Isolated Saturday and Sunday. Scattered Monday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. At this time, the risk of severe weather appears to be minimal. A couple of storms could produce downburst wind gusts of 50 mph. Overall, the risk at any given location is small. I am watching a strong cold front Monday/Tuesday. Perhaps some thunderstorms with it.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Thunderstorms will have a lot of moisture to work with this week. This could lead to flash flooding. Heavy rain is possible if slow moving thunderstorms train over the same areas. Monitor updates.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

June 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 68° to 70° / South IL 68° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° / West KY 68° to 70° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 4:58 AM
Moonset: 7:49 PM
The phase of the moon: New

June 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 5:36 AM
Moonset: 8:47 PM
The phase of the moon: New

June 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. Hot and muggy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Warm and humid. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: It may be dry for most areas. Otherwise, any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars if clouds thicken.
Moonrise: 6:20 AM
Moonset: 9:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

June 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars if clouds thicken.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 6 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars if a thunderstorm approaches.
Moonrise: 7:10 AM
Moonset: 10:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

June 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Isolated chance of a storm.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:07 AM
Moonset: 11:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

June 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated chance of a storm.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Monitor updates on the chance of thunderstorms. Wet roadways and lightning where they occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Any given point of time.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Monitor updates on the chance of thunderstorms. Wet roadways and lightning where they occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:08 AM
Moonset: 11:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

June 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler and less humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Any given point of time.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:11 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

Click images to enlarge them

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 12th: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms could produce gusty wind today into the weekend. The risk of severe weather is low.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Scattered thunderstorms today into at least Friday.
2. Isolated thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday.
3. I am monitoring Monday’s thunderstorm chances.
4. Heat index values 95 to 100 degrees Friday into Sunday.

Weather advice:

Locally heavy rain will be possible again today into Friday. Avoid flooded roadways.

More of the same.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible today into Friday.

We had some severe weather Tuesday. Two tornadoes touched in the region. One caused damage to a barn. Otherwise, yesterday produced training showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. That training band of storms produce one to two inches of rain.

Remember, the forecast has been for a widespread one to two inch rain event between last Saturday and this coming weekend. That means some places will have less rain than others. That means some places will have more rain than others.

My going forecast has been pockets of three to five inches of rain. That has verified. Some locations are now over three inches.

Radar estimated rain totals.

Regional

Click these images to enlarge them. Check out the WIDE range of rain totals from this event, thus far.

Zoomed in on the Mt. Vernon, Illinois, area.

Zoomed in on McCracken County, Kentucky, area.

We should consider ourselves fortunate. Areas to our south have experienced an ongoing historic rain event. Climate enhanced undoubtedly.

Some areas have received more than 15 inches of rain in the last couple of days.

This is an insane rain event that continues today. There have been rain rates of one to three inches an hour with pockets of more than three inches an hour. Rare to see something like this.

The historic analogs suggest this is an event that you would expect every 200+ years.

What is amazing is that the same areas continue to get hit over and over again. The bulk of this rain has fallen since Monday night, Tuesday, and now today. Radar is not estimated the totals all that well. Ground truth reports are worse.

There are large areas experiencing severe flash flooding.

Another amazing fact about this event is that it is not a tropical storm or hurricane. You would expect tropical storm or hurricanes to produce heavy rain (this would be heavy even for a hurricane).

This is simply a stalled front with very high/extreme PWAT values.

Remember, I have talked about these extreme PWAT values since last week. I knew they would produce extreme rain totals in some areas. You can’t have days of extreme PWAT values without consequences.

It will remain muggy today into the weekend. Dew points will make it feel muggy into the weekend. Dew points in the 70 represent air you wear. Tropical air.

Let’s take a look at dew points

Today

Tomorrow

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Tuesday will deliver nicer dew points! Cooler air. Less humid.

Heat index values will be high, as well. These will be the highest heat index values this year, thus far.

Use care if you are outside.

Friday heat index values.

Saturday heat index values.

Sunday heat index values.

The good news is that thunderstorm activity will fall into the slight chance category as we move into Friday night, Saturday, and Sunday.

A cold front may bring some additional thunderstorms Monday and Monday night. Perhaps we will have a zero chance by Tuesday as the cooler air arrives.

There will be some showers and thunderstorms with the cold front. I will need to monitor the timing of that cold front. Right now, it appears that it will push through the region Monday.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.