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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
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Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. Nice. Pleasant outdoor weather.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds north or variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday – Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 83-86 degree range
Winds: South and southeast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 10:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:01 a.m. Waxing crescent
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Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Just a few passing clouds possible.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-65 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Mostly sunny. Warmer. A bit more humid, as well.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:01 a.m. Waxing crescent
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Warm.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
What impact is expected? Heat index should rise well into the 90s to perhaps 100 degrees.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-95 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? Likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it might be hot.
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:01 a.m. Waxing crescent
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds west/southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly sunny. Breezy, at times. Hot and humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Heat index should reach into the 90’s to perhaps 100 degrees. A stray thunderstorm could produce wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:09 a.m. Waxing crescent
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance for an isolated thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning (if anything at all)
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly sunny. Muggy. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range. Heat index into the 90s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low to Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 2:07 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:40 a.m. Waxing crescent
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday – Partly sunny. Warm. Muggy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate/High.
Moonrise will be at 3:02 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:10 a.m. Waxing crescent
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate/High.
Moonrise will be at 3:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:41 a.m. Waxing crescent
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Low confidence.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: West winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 4:51 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:14 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 5:46 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:49 a.m.
Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-66 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:27 a.m.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-65 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 7:34 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:09 a.m.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:37 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 12:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:57 p.m.
Monday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Wow, wasn’t Wednesday a great day?
- Warming trend into the weekend
- Heat index values will be high this weekend
- Thunderstorm chances?
Wow, what a day. An amazing day of weather across our region. Plenty of sunshine and low humidity levels. Perfect for farmers.
Thursday will deliver another decent day of weather. A little bit warmer. But, still nice for June.
Check out our current dew points. Nice. Low humidity. This is why it has felt nice over the past few days. Lower dew points. Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. Dew points in the 40’s and 50’s! That is amazing for June.
But, look what happens next. Cue the Jaws music.
Dew points this weekend rise into the 60’s and perhaps even near 70 degrees. ICK. Air you wear. Humid air. Muggy. Well, ICK from me, at least. I am not a fan.
Click image for a larger view.
What are dew points? Click here
High confidence in the forecast from Thursday into Sunday afternoon.
A mini-heat wave arrives on Friday and will last into part of next week. Expect temperatures to rise into the upper 80’s to middle 90’s from Friday into at least Monday. And, some of the data continues the warm/hot weather into the middle of next week. Questions start to rise as we move into next Wednesday-Friday time frame. Will a front push through the region? Or, will it stall out to our north?
Expect heat index values in the 90s to around 100 degrees on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. If we have more clouds on Monday then temperatures might not peak quite as high. Something I will be monitoring. Either way, it will feel hot and humid this coming weekend. Perfect weather for the lakes and rivers. Although, UV index will range from 9-10. Sunscreen weather.
Here is the 500 mb wind speed map. This is from the NAM model guidance.
Currently we are under a northwest flow. That means that the winds are moving into our region from the northwest. But, watch what happens later this weekend. Everything switches out of the south and southwest. That means building heat. Images are from wright-weather.com
This next image is for Sunday. Warm/hot and humid weather. The northwest flow pushes off to our north and east.
A cold front will approach our region on Sunday afternoon and night. This particular front will approach from the northeast. A bit weird. But, it happens. These are called back door cold fronts. Some debate in the weather community about how far south and west the front will push. I have been keeping the front more to our northeast vs other forecasts. It is important for a couple of reasons. If the front moves into our local area then thunderstorm chances will increase on Sunday and Monday. And, winds will shift out of the north with lower temperatures and dew points/humidity levels. If the front does not push through our local area then the heat and humidity will continue. And, thunderstorm chances will be isolated.
For now, I continue to hold my forecast. That means the front may approach our northeast counties, but never fully make it through the region. That will keep us in the heat and humidity into Monday. I will continue to monitor trends. I do have at least small thunderstorm chances on Sunday into Monday.
This is the GFS dew point map for Sunday afternoon and evening. Notice the lower numbers (cooler colors) to our northeast. That is the back door cold front. The dew points are lower behind the front. Lower humidity levels.
Again, this is just the GFS guidance. And, there is little agreement on this actually happening. It is possible the front remains further north and east. The red line is the back door cold front.
Medium confidence in the forecast from Monday into Wednesday.
I do have at least some chance for thunderstorms in the forecast. Perhaps our thunderstorm chances will peak around Tuesday into Wednesday night. Centered on Wednesday. Perhaps. If storms do develop then they could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. It is June. Storms that form in June typically produce downpours. You know the drill. Your neighbor could pick up a thunderstorm and your location might remain dry.
In the short term the main concern will be heat and humidity. Especially true from Friday into Monday. Drink plenty of fluids and stay cool! Enjoy the summer weather. I know you have been waiting for this. Well, at least you summer fans!
I don’t really see much change in the overall pattern. We continue to have these warm weeks followed by a cooler week. Dry weather followed by active weather. Seems to be an on/off/on/off pattern. Which, isn’t all that bad. We want to avoid drought. We just need the regular rain chances to continue.
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night – Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday night into Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday into Sunday night: Isolated thunderstorm chance. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday into Wednesday: Thunderstorms will be possible. Monitor updates.
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Updated rain chances. Updated long range temperature forecast. Updated wind direction.
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No major concerns through Thursday. Heat wave this weekend could cause heat index values from 95-102.
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No action required through Thursday night.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
