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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Small risk for a storm…mainly southern counties near the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Highs in the middle 80’s. North and northwest winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Most areas should not have any issues.
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Tuesday night – Clearing. Just a few clouds. Mild. Lows in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s. Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Wednesday – Quite a bit of sun and very warm. Highs in the upper 80’s. East winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming south at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and mild. Lows around 70 degrees. Southerly winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thursday – Partly cloudy with a slight chance for a thunderstorm. Warm and humid. Highs well into the 80’s. Southerly winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Storm chances may increase a bit on Friday into the weekend. Scattered. Warm and humid conditions, as well.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Slight chance for a thunderstorm on Tuesday (main south)
2. Warm week ahead of us
3. What about the upcoming weekend and the tropics?
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Well, some of you picked up 1-2 months worth of rainfall in a few hours on Monday. Rainfall totals of 1-6″+ occurred over northern parts of southern Illinois. Hardest hit areas were parts of Jackson, Franklin, and Jefferson, Hamilton, and Wayne Counties. Flooding was reported in numerous areas with water over roadways.
All of this occurred from a complex of storms that formed on Sunday night over northern Missouri into central and northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Let me show you what it looked like on the Sunday night IR satellite.
The bright red clouds are very cold cloud tops. This is a MCS. A complex of thunderstorms. The line weakened as it moved southward into our region. The severe weather threat diminished early Monday morning, but the heavy rains sure did not.
This is what the line looked like in satellite by 7 am Monday morning. Notice the bright red and dark red colors are gone. The storms weakened…quite a bit.
The blue and yellow colors are warmer cloud tops. Not the extremely tall thunderstorms that happened well to our north. Central Illinois into Indiana actually reported quite a bit of severe weather on Sunday night.
Here are the estimated rainfall totals (at 8 am on Monday morning). Check out these big totals over southern Illinois. They actually went off the rainfall chart. I did see some 7″+ estimates on radar in Franklin County, Illinois.
Scale is on the left side. It stops at 5″ Some of that grey area near Benton, Illinois was over 6 inches.
If you have been with me for awhile then you might catch me talking about PWAT values. When we have high PWAT values we can have a boatload of rain in a very short amount of time. June is known for that. High PWAT values pool ahead of these cold fronts. When that happens watch out.
Here was the PWAT value chart on Monday morning. See how the circle covers southern Illinois? That is the highest PWAT values on the chart. Thus, very heavy rainfall occurred. When a cold front squeezes against these high PWAT values you can have prolific rain producers. That is exactly what happened for some areas on Monday morning.
Okay, that was your semi-meteorological lesson for the day.
There were a few reports of large hail in west Kentucky. Grand Rivers had golf ball size hail in a few spots. Also a couple of reports of wind damage to trees and power lines/poles. Isolated severe weather occurred on Monday in our area.
What about Tuesday into Thursday?
Expect mostly dry and warm conditions. Dew points will remain in the 60’s and perhaps lower 70’s. This combined with temperatures in the middle to upper 80’s will make it feel stuffy at times.
Let’s check out the potential highs for Tuesday into Thursday. WARM!
Tuesday high temperature forecast
Wednesday high temperature forecast
Thursday high temperature forecast
Let’s look at the dew points. How much moisture will be in the air (will it feel stuffy outside). Dew points in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s would be quite humid. Stuffy air.
Here are the Tuesday dew points from wright-weather.com
Wednesday dew point forecast
Thursday dew point forecast
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Increasingly moist flow returns by the end of the week into the next couple of weeks.
2. What about the tropics? Where will all the moisture go?
The big story in the long range forecast will be the return of scattered showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week, That would be Friday into Sunday. Still a bit early to pin down the coverage. A few shortwaves will pass through the region over that period of time. Each disturbance could pop a few storms. The best chance might be in the heat of the day.
The only counter argument to that might be if an overnight MCS develop. An MCS is a complex of thunderstorms that form at night when the low level jet kicks up. This will need to be monitored. MCS events can throw a big monkey wrench into a forecast.
As you know, I have been closely following the tropics. A system moving up through the Baja of California will enhance moisture in the Central United States later this week (watching Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and northern Missouri initially for that moisture to cause problems). A system that will spread moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico will also enhance moisture in the long range.
I suspect some very heavy rainfall totals will occur over parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, southeast Oklahoma, and Arkansas from the Gulf of Mexico moisture. Then the question becomes…how far north does that moisture spread. This will definitely need to be monitored. I have concerns about a pattern like this and what it could produce rain wise. I will be watching.
Here are some GFS maps showing rain and storms over the coming weekend. The green represents scattered storms on Saturday and Sunday (Friday, as well)
This first image is for today. See Blanca moving into the Baja of California? The large circle of green and yellow – that is heavy rain and the hurricane. That moisture will spread into the southwest United States and eventually the central United States.
Here is the Thursday GFS. You can see moisture in the central United States. An area of low pressure is situated over Kansas. Moisture from Blanca will be entrained into this mess. Some heavy rains across parts of KS/MO/IA. Northwest of us. We will have to see what happens after this time period with that moisture.
Moving ahead to Saturday. You can see some scattered showers and thunderstorms in our region. Perhaps a 30%-40% chance. Still a bit early to nail down specifics.
Then on Sunday (image below). You can see some green painted over our region. Again, scattered showers and storms possible.
Notice on the above image all the green in the Gulf of Mexico? This will need to be monitored.
Models don’t do well with heavy rainfall events. Case in point…this mornings rainfall over parts of southern Illinois. No model picked up on that.
What a meteorologist has to do is figure out pattern recognition. What has happened in the past when a setup like this occurred. That points to some places receiving extremely heavy rainfall totals over a period of 1-2 weeks. I am not saying that will be us, but it will be someone. This is the type of pattern you really have to watch.
Here is the GFS rainfall totals through the long range. It attempts to paint the picture. You can picture in your head the moisture moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico. You can sort of see that in this image. Then the heavy rains over parts of the United States, as well.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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No major concerns.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card for the coming days will be temperatures. Data indicates some upper 80’s possible. But, can someone hit 90 degrees again? That is the wild card.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO (with MAYBE a ONE near the KY/TN border). I can’t completely rule out a stray storm near the KY/Tn border. But, for most areas…not expecting storms.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. A few storms possible.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. A few storms possible.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Rainfall amounts on Tuesday will likely be shunted south of most of the region. Perhaps a few showers and thunderstorms possible over our southern counties. Best chance would be near the KY/TN border.
I am not overly excited about widespread showers and storms Tuesday through Thursday. MAYBE an isolated storm here and there on Tuesday. If a cell forms then of course it can drop some locally heavy rain.
The vast bulk of the area will receive no precipitation on Tuesday through Thursday.
Storm chances may increase Friday into the weekend (and next week).
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
