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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today and this evening. Another chance Sunday into Monday morning. Another chance Thursday and Thursday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. A couple of thunderstorms could produce strong wind gusts and hail today and this evening. Another chance Friday. Overall, the risk of severe weather at your location is small. The tornado risk is low, but perhaps not zero.
There will be another chance Sunday and Sunday night.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. There could be brief water issues where the heaviest thunderstorms occur.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Next Monday through Wednesday.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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June 8, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 78° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 84° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° / West KY 80° to 84° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Winds will be from the: South southwest because west 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Clearing overnight. Patchy fog. Shower and thunderstorm activity should be end early in the night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Timing of the rain: Before 8 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:52 PM
Moonset: 1:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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June 9, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 78° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Winds will be from the: Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:56 PM
Moonset: 2:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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June 10, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 76° / South IL 78° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° / West KY 78° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 82°
Winds will be from the: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Ending early in the night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (ending)
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South becoming west northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 4:05 PM
Moonset: 2:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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June 11, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Some morning clouds. Becoming sunny. Pleasant day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° / SE MO 75° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 78° to 82°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 56° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° / West KY 56° to 60° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Winds will be from the: North 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:16 PM
Moonset: 3:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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June 12, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot. Humid. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Winds will be from the: East northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° / SE MO 73° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 73° to 76° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: East northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:33 PM
Moonset: 3:51 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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June 13, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Muggy. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: The highest chance will be before 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 95° to 100° / SE MO 95° to 100° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 95° to 100° / South IL 95° to 100° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 95° to 100° / West KY 95° to 100° / NW TN 95° to 100°
Winds will be from the: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 105° to 110°+
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. High heat index values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. Muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:50 PM
Moonset: 4:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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June 14, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot. Muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 95° to 100° / SE MO 95° to 100° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 95° to 100° / South IL 95° to 100° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 95° to 100° / West KY 95° to 100° / NW TN 95° to 100°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 105° to 110°+
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. Muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:04 PM
Moonset: 5:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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June 15, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot. Muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 95° to 100° / SE MO 95° to 100° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 95° to 100° / South IL 95° to 100° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 95° to 100° / West KY 95° to 100° / NW TN 95° to 100°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. Muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:10 PM
Moonset: 6:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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June 16, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot. Muggy. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 93° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 93° to 96° / South IL 93° to 96° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96° / West KY 93° to 96° / NW TN 93° to 96°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values. Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. Muggy. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MMO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:04 PM
Moonset: 7:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Unsettled weather conditions.
- On and off chances of showers and thunderstorms into Friday.
- Locally heavy rain possible.
- Heat wave next week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
Today through Friday
Showers and thunderstorms moved across the region Tuesday. Some of the storms produce strong wind gusts and hail. Locally heavy rain also fell in some counties. Some locations picked up over two inches of rain! Other locations received no measurable rainfall. Feast or famine weather. That is what I call this time of the year.
Your neighbor can pick up a gully-washer. You end up with little or no rain. Just the nature of the beast during the summer months.
A line of thunderstorms is pushing across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois this morning. This line has been weakening and should continue to weaken as it moves eastward.
This will stabilize the atmosphere. This raises questions about whether thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon and whether they will be severe.
Another disturbance is moving through Missouri and Arkansas. This will help produce additional showers and thunderstorms across the southern quarter of the region.
It is possible that our middle counties receive little or no rain today. That would include areas near Cape Girardeau eastward to Metropolis and then east from there.
We area just going to have to monitor trends on radar.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible later today. Some of the thunderstorms could produce strong wind gusts and hail. The tornado risk is once again low.
Here is what the 7 AM radar looked like. You can see the storms moving through Missouri and Illinois. Again, these have been weakening. They are moving east. See the live radars for more up to date information.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
This is what the 7 AM radar looked like.
You can see the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook has our region in a risk this afternoon and evening.
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish tonight. By late tonight the region will be dry.
Thursday and Thursday evening will be dry. No weather concerns.
A few showers and thunderstorms may redevelop late Thursday night.
A complex of thunderstorms is likely to bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the region Friday and Friday evening. Locally heavy rain will again be possible. A small severe weather risk, as well.
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Saturday and Sunday
Saturday and Sunday will be pleasant. Dry. Cooler. Lower humidity levels. Nice weekend (once we get past Friday).
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Monday into much of next week
A warm front will push northward through the region Monday. This could help in the development of isolated thunderstorms. The chance is mainly across our northern counties (northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois). I will monitor trends. I only placed a 10% chance in the forecast.
A heat wave will develop Monday into much of next week. Expect numerous days with highs in the 90s. Heat index values will be even higher. We may see the heat index top 100 degrees.
Since the weather has been fairly mild of late, it will feel even hotter.
It will be muggy. Not the best weather for outdoor activities.
Dew points control how muggy it feels. Dew points of 70 degrees or higher represent air you wear. Muggy air. Oppressive.
Here is what the guidance is showing for dew point temperatures next week.
Monday dew points
Tuesday dew points
Wednesday dew points
That is a lot of muggy air. This will be our first heat wave of the summer.
Let’s look at some numbers.
This is the EC ensemble temperature forecast. Ensembles are the same model ran over and over again.
Each line represents a day. The date is at the bottom of the graphic. Earlier date on the left. Later dates the further right you go.
The more the numbers agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast high temperature.
Check out all those ninety+ degree readings next week into the following.
Here is what the operational EC model is showing for highs through Friday the 17th of June.
Let’s see how it plays out. I am forecasting widespread low to middle 90s. We will have to see if the upper 90s verify. EC believes they will. Either way, it is going to be hot.
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Time to remember the heat safety rules. We don’t want anyone becoming sick from the heat.
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The EC is showing heat index values topping 100 next week.
Remember, the heat index is more important than the actual temperature. The heat index is what it feels like to your body.
Monday heat index values. These may be a little high. Either way, hot.
Tuesday heat index values. What it feels like to the body.
Thursday heat index values (next week).
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 7th through June 13th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are usually updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers June 14th through June 20th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers June 17th through June 30th
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
SUMMER OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
September Temperature Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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