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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.
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Just a quick/abbreviated update today.
There have not been any adjustments in the going forecast.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop later this morning into the afternoon. Same as yesterday. The peak time-frame for shower activity will be during the heating of the day. That would be 11 am to 7 pm.
Locally heavy rain will occur where showers and storms train over the same areas.
We did have flooding in some counties the last few days. Today will be no different. Rain totals of 0.00″ to 2+”.
Wide range. Not everyone will receive rain today. Others will receive gully washers. Again, same as the last few days.
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** Locally heavy rain is likely over the coming days. There is a concern that if thunderstorms train over the same area then a quick two to four inches of rain would fall. If this happens, in localized areas, then flash flooding would occur. Be aware of this pattern. **
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Saturday: Scattered lightning is likely. Locally heavy rain is likely, once again. An isolated risk of downburst winds.
Sunday: Scattered lightning is again possible. It is a summer pattern and locally heavy rain is always possible.
Monday: Isolated lightning is possible.
Tuesday: Not at this time.
Wednesday: Lightning is possible.
Thursday: Not at this time.
Friday: Not at this time.
Saturday: Not at this time.
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- Isolated flash flooding is a concern.
- River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
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Saturday through Monday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will occur into Sunday.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Unlikely. The risk of severe weather is low. Isolated downburst winds.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Flash flooding is possible where thunderstorms train over the same areas. I am concerned about a few spots receiving large totals in a short amount of time. This is how June flash flooding often occurs.
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Tuesday through Friday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Sunday and Monday. I will monitor Wednesday.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. Severe storms are unlikely.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible on at least Sunday. Slow moving thunderstorms can produce heavy rain.
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
County Maps: Click Here
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Keep in mind, rain totals will range from 0.00″ to over 5.00″. The higher amounts will be highly localized. Everyone is not going to see heavy rain. Some will receive very little in the way of rainfall. Others will see flash flooding.
This is the type of pattern that produces large differences in rainfall totals from one county to the next. This is likely not a widespread 3 to 5″ rain event. Most areas will receive 0.50″ to 1.5″.
June 8, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Rain totals 0.00″ to over 3.00″. Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms are again possible. A few storms with heavy rain and gusty winds. Peak rain chances between 11 am and 7 pm. The heat of the day will deliver the greatest coverage. This will be the same pattern as the last few days. Hit and miss heavy showers and thunderstorms. WIDE range of rain totals, again. Same as the last few days.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° SE MO 80° to 82° South IL 80° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 80° to 82° NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 50% to 60% IL 50% to 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% to 60% Western KY 50% to 60% NW TN 50% to 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated am hours. Scattered to numerous during the afternoon hours.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. A few storms will produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Small hail is possible. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates/radars.
UV Index: 7 to 8 High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of the activity will be during the evening hours. Decreasing coverage overnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 50% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. A few storms will produce heavy rain and gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates/radars.
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 10:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:19 AM
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June 9, 2019.
Sunday’s Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain where storms do occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% to 50% IL 40% to 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% to 50% Western KY 40% to 50% NW TN 40% to 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. A few storms will produce heavy rain and gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates/radars.
UV Index: 7 to 8 High to very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 12:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:59 AM
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Monday: Medium confidence. Partly to mostly cloudy. A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. North wind at 12 to 24 mph.
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Tuesday: Medium confidence. Partly to mostly sunny. High in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows in the upper 50s. North wind at 8 to 16 mph.
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Wednesday: Medium confidence. Partly to mostly sunny. Widely scattered thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening hours. High in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows in the upper 50s. North wind at 5 to 10 mph.
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Click to enlarge
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Graphic-cast
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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Missouri
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Illinois
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Kentucky
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Tennessee
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Saturday through Monday: Thunderstorms are possible. The main concern will be heavy rain and lightning. The severe weather risk is small.
Tuesday through Thursday: A chance of lightning on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The severe weather risk appears small, at this time.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
Light green is not assigned a number. Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.
A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado. One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s outlook.
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk. Light green is not assigned a number.
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com
Click the personal notification settings tab.
Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.
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Current conditions.
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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.
My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).
I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad. When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and WeatherTalk LLC.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
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WeatherBrains Episode 698
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Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Vice President of Weather Sales at DTN. He earned his Master’s Degree from Mississippi State University and is a former employee of WTOK-TV in Meridian, MS. He also formerly ran Mississippi State’s Broadcast Meteorology program. Renny Vandewege, welcome to WeatherBrains!
- Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Very active 2019 tornado season
- Lawrence, KS storm chaser wreck and controversy
- Upper Ridge leaves Southeast dry
- National Weather Round-Up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
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Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson
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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects? Not a subscriber? Becoming one at www.weathertalk.com
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
