Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

I am going to start going live during events.

I have a live stream running now (I am learning how to use the software).

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it is a free subscribe button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 7th  through June 14th

Current risk:  LOW RISK.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment:   A few of the thunderstorms today and Sunday night could be intense with strong wind gusts and small hail.

There is a low-end severe weather risk today and again on Sunday night.  The risk of tornadoes is low.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning is likely today.  Another chance Sunday night.  Another chance on Monday (low chance).  Another chance Thursday night into next weekend.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  POSSIBLE.   There is a low risk of severe weather today.  Another low risk on Sunday night.  I will monitor next Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? SCATTERED ISSUES.  Locally heavy thunderstorms are expected today.  This could result in brief flooding issues.  Ditches overflowing, commonly flooded roadways, and so on.

I will monitor a few more storms on Sunday night.  Another chance late next week.  Any storms in June could produce heavy rain.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO.   

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.    

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   Additional showers and thunderstorms today.  The rain will taper tonight.
•   Mostly dry on Sunday.  Another chance of a few showers and thunderstorms on Sunday night and Monday.
•   Currently, Tuesday through Thursday appear to be the best chances for a period of dry weather.
•   Watching late next week for more thunderstorms.

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Good morning,

Numerous showers and thunderstorms moved across the region yesterday.  Some locations receive more than two inches of rain!  Isolated areas received more than four inches.  This is typical for June.

The atmosphere is usually juiced during the summer months.  That is why it feels humid outside.  Thunderstorms can tap into that moisture and produce torrential downpours.

The pattern is similar today.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are moving into the region from the west.

You can see that on this 6:30 AM radar animation (see the latest live radar links below)

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

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If you have outdoor plans today, then monitor the radars and have a plan B.  Then, if it rains, you will be prepared.

There is a low-end risk of severe weather today, this evening, and tomorrow night.

The concern would be isolated damaging wind gusts.  The hail risk is fairly low.  The tornado risk is low.

I will send out app alerts if severe weather does develop.

Another front will pass through the region on Sunday night.  This will bring another chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

A few lingering storms are possible on Monday.  I know everyone is tired of the wet weather.

Tuesday through Thursday is expected to be dry.  Rain chances will be less than ten percent.  We need a break from the rain.

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I am watching next Friday through Monday for additional thunderstorm complexes.  MCS’s.

We are moving towards MCS season.

MCS’s are large summer thunderstorm complexes.  They bring most of our summer rainfall.

When we enter a northwest jetstream flow, MCS chances increase.  That is what I will be monitoring over the coming weeks.

Where does the northwest wind flow pattern develop?   That is the question.

MCS’s can bring heavy rain and damaging wind gusts.  They are common from June through late July.

It does not take much upper air energy to produce showers and thunderstorms during the month of June.  Thus, I will need to closely monitor next week’s forecast.  The week after, as well.

Here is the EC model lighting forecast for next weekend.

This is an indication of more thunderstorm activity in our region.  Some of these storms could be intense, if the data is correct.

I will be off from work next Friday through Sunday.  Make sure you have at least three to five methods for receiving severe weather information.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model.

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Hrrr model.  The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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