June 7, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a level one out of five severe weather risk for Tuesday afternoon and night.

The light green is general sub-severe thunderstorms. The dark green is the marginal risk zone.

The primary concern will be damaging wind and torrential downpours. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

There remain questions, as always, about exact placement of the heavier thunderstorms.

High resolution models show storms over much of the area. Perhaps a higher risk in southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Monitor updates.

Risk zone

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A variety of models that show similar outcomes tomorrow afternoon. This would be around 1 PM and 2 PM.

Again, there may be differences in exact placement of the most intense storms. Monitor updates.

Click images to enlarge them.

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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today through Saturday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could be severe Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, a low-end risk of downburst wind from collapsing thunderstorms today through Thursday. I am watching Friday and Saturday when the atmosphere could be a bit more unstable. Monitor updates moving forward.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Thunderstorms will have a lot of moisture to work with this week. This could lead to flash flooding. Heavy rain is possible if slow moving thunderstorms train over the same areas. Monitor updates.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

June 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 82° / South IL 78° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 84° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 68° to 70° / South IL 68° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° / West KY 68° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 3:56 AM
Moonset: 5:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 8, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe with high wind and torrential rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° / SE MO 80° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours. Strong wind gusts near thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours. Strong wind near thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 4:25 AM
Moonset: 6:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 4:58 AM
Moonset: 7:49 PM
The phase of the moon: New

June 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 5:36 AM
Moonset: 8:47 PM
The phase of the moon: New

June 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Hot and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Warm and humid. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 6:20 AM
Moonset: 9:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

June 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: West 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 900° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 6 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 7:10 AM
Moonset: 10:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

June 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:07 AM
Moonset: 11:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

How much rain fell over the last 24-hours?

Zoomed in. This is what fell Saturday night into Sunday night.

Click images to enlarge them.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE THEM

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 9th: Some thunderstorms could be severe Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, the threat of severe thunderstorms will remain low Wednesday and Thursday. There could be a few reports of downburst winds. Thunderstorms pop-up and eventually collapse on themselves. This can cause isolated 50+ mph wind gusts. Overall, the risk is small through Thursday.

I am monitoring Friday and Saturday. Instability levels may be higher. If thunderstorms do form Friday or Saturday then they could be locally intense.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Wet pattern this week.
2. Locally heavy rain with the potential of pockets of flash flooding.
3. Monitoring Friday and Saturday when the atmosphere may be a bit more unstable.
4. Warm and muggy conditions.

Weather advice:

Monitor updates concerning locally heavy rain this week.

I will keep an eye on the threat of severe weather, as well. For now, the risk appears low through Thursday. I am watching Friday and Saturday when instability levels are higher.

First, I wanted to show you some Tuesday afternoon maps. There may be a few severe thunderstorms with a line of thunderstorms that is forecast to develop over the southern half of our region. This will need to be monitored. Confidence is low on how this pans out.

CAPE (energy) values will be high. Storms tap into CAPE. CAPE is one parameter that I look at when considering severe thunderstorms.

Lift index values will also be high. This is another parameter that I look at when considering severe thunderstorms. Wind shear won’t be strong. That is one missing ingredient.

High resolution models show thunderstorms forming Tuesday afternoon in the heat of the day. Some of these could be intense.

Our rain has arrived. This much advertised rain event began Saturday night and will continue into at least Friday.

We will have on and off rain. It won’t rain everywhere every day. It will rain somewhere in the area every day.

Some of the rain will be heavy. The atmosphere is absolutely loaded with tropical moisture. The return rate of this moisture content is around 30 years. Thus, plan on torrential downpours where thunderstorms develop.

These thunderstorms can drop one to two inches of rain in less than thirty minutes.

If a location receives repeated thunderstorms this week, then they can expect the jackpot rain totals of three to five inches.

I can’t rule out flash flooding. Widespread flash flooding appears unlikely. Some flash flood warnings may, however, need to be issued. That would occur where a line of thunderstorms or slow moving thunderstorms develop.

It is not possible to forecast what one county will receive vs another. It isn’t one cold front and done. These are pop-up or bands of showers and thunderstorms that will peak during the heat of the day and then decrease in coverage overnight.

A few storms could also produce downburst winds of 50 mph. That will be the exception and not the norm.

I am keeping a close eye on Thursday through Saturday. Instability levels may increase during this time-period. If that happens then a few severe thunderstorms may develop. This will need to be closely watched.

A cold front is anticipated to push across the region Saturday and Sunday. Often times, these fronts become stationary in our region (during June). We will have to see how far it pushes southward.

If the front can push through the entire region, then somewhat lower temperatures and lower dew points will be the end result.

Notice on the forecast that temperatures Thursday into the weekend are going to be a bit higher. That is due to less clouds and less precipitation. Upper 80s to around 90- degrees will be possible later this week. That combined with high dew points will mean heat index values in the middle 90s (at least).

Check out the rainfall totals, thus far. These are the 24-hour totals from Saturday night to Sunday night. A WIDE range of totals. That is the going forecast. A WIDE range of rain totals this week. A general one to two inches from Saturday night through this coming Saturday. Pockets of three to five inches likely.

Thus far, 0.00″ to 2.9″ has fallen.

Check out the rain totals in Christian County, KY. WIDE range.

Dew points will make it feel muggy outside. This will last into Saturday. A cold front Saturday/Sunday MAY knock these down just a bit. I am monitoring.

Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. That is what makes it feel humid.

Dew points in the upper 60s and 70s are quite muggy. Occasionally, during the summer months, we will see dew points in the upper 70s. Miserable outside, when that happens.

Day one excessive rainfall (flash flood outlook). This scale goes one to four. One being a slight risk. Four being a high risk.

You can see our region is in a risk of flash flooding today, tomorrow, and Wednesday.

Today

Tuesday

Wednesday

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.