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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A few isolated storms. Most areas will remain dry. Warm. Lows in the lower 70’s. Light winds.
Sunday – Partly sunny and hot. Humid. Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s with southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday night – Increasing clouds with thunderstorms possibly moving in from the north. Locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds with storms that form. Should be late when storms start to move into the region (first over our northern counties). Not sure how far south they make it. Perhaps Mt Vernon area and then a couple of counties south of there towards the 3 am to 4 am time frame. Lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Monday – Mostly cloudy with a weakening band of storms moving in from the north. The storms will then reform somewhere near extreme southern Illinois and Kentucky. A few storms could become strong over western Kentucky. High temperatures in the 80’s. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor radars and at least have a back up plan.
Monday night – Mostly cloudy with a few thunderstorms possible in the evening…mainly near the KY/TN border. Lows in the upper 60’s.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B and monitor radars (mainly KY/TN).
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with a 30% chance for thunderstorms. Highs in the middle 80’s.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor radars and have a plan B.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Warm on Sunday. Warmest day of the spring season, thus far? Appears possible
2. Thunderstorm chances increase late Sunday night and Monday.
3. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
The big story for Sunday will be the very warm temperatures. Perhaps the warmest day of the year, thus far. Can someone reach 90 degrees? It does appear likely. Upper 80’s are a sure bet. Lower 90’s in spots. Gusty southwest winds at 10-15 mph. It will actually feel like summer.
Of course, all good things much come to an end! A cold front approaches the region on Sunday night and Monday. A band of thunderstorms will form over northern Missouri into northern and central Illinois on Sunday afternoon and evening. The storms will sag southward Sunday night.
By late Sunday night some of the thunderstorms will approach our northern counties. Some of the storms could be quite intense. The overall severe weather risk appears to be small, but not zero. The concern would be our far northern counties. Perhaps up towards Mt Vernon, Illinois. They may make it as far south as Carbondale and Marion towards the 2 am to 4 am time frame.
By Monday morning the band of storms will be moving into our entire area. It should be weakening at that point. Parts of southern Illinois and northern parts of western Kentucky and southeast Missouri may not end up with much rain. The storms will then intensify again in the afternoon. Best chance for this will be over parts of western Kentucky and far southeast Missouri.
Some debate as to how much areal coverage of storms will occur over parts of our region. The line pushes in from the north on Monday night and it weakens. Then it reforms over parts of our region on Monday late morning and afternoon. But, what happens in between? That will need to be monitored. Some places may miss out on storms.
Here is the future-cast radar from weatherbell.com
This first image is for Sunday night (late). This is around 3 am on Monday morning.
Then let’s look at the future-cast radar for Monday around 12 pm to 2 pm. Notice how the activity diminished greatly?
Storms then blow up quickly on Monday afternoon. This is when some severe storms could occur. Perhaps over Kentucky and Tennessee.
The front is forecast to stall out over our region on Monday and Tuesday. If this happens then thunderstorm chances will linger in at least Tuesday and perhaps Tuesday night.
By Wednesday the front “should” push south of our region. That will clear us out for at least a couple of days. See the extended forecast for the next cold front next Friday and Saturday.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Watching the early week cold front
2. Perhaps we dry out on Wednesday and Thursday
3. Another strong cold front on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms
I am hoping we dry out on Wednesday and Thursday of the new work week.
Another cold front will approach the region on Friday and Saturday. This front appears to be fairly strong on the models. This will need to be monitored. We might have some strong storms with the front. If everything comes together as the models are projecting.
Locally heavy rain would also occur along the front. Perhaps a band of thunderstorms with the front? Still several days away and plenty of time to monitor.
I am watching the tropics for possible tropical development later this week. I will need to track the eventual path of that system. If it develops, I should say!
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No major concerns. Sun burn on Sunday!
Monday some strong storms possible. Monitor updates.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card in the forecast will be whether some storms on Monday will reach severe levels with damaging winds and hail. A chance of that happening over parts of western Kentucky.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO for Sunday during the day. Storm chances increase, however, on Sunday night. We will have a ONE/TWO for Sunday night. Perhaps a THREE for Monday.
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Sunday NIGHT – Storms are possible. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours over our far northern counties will be possible (up towards Mt Vernon).
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible. A few storms could become severe with high winds and hail. Small tornado risk.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Sunday night will be a ONE or TWO. A few strong storms possible Sunday night (late) and on Monday we will probably have a 2 or 3. That means a few severe storms possible.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
No rain in the forecast for Saturday night or Sunday. Thunderstorm chances increase on Sunday night (late) and Monday. A cold front advances into the region. Locally heavy storms with the front. Rainfall totals will vary quite a bit.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
