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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
You will see smoke in the sky today and tomorrow. You may even smell it. This is from the Canadian wildfires.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Scattered. A chance of lightning Wednesday. Another chance Saturday night into Sunday. I will need to monitor Sunday night into Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Low risk. A few storms could produce strong and gusty winds. I can’t rule out isolated downburst winds that could cause tree limb and power line damage. Often times, during the summer months, storms collapse rapidly. This produces strong/high wind gusts. Isolated severe weather reports are possible Wednesday and again Sunday.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Not at this time.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Tuesday, June 6, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. There may be smoke and haze from the Canadian wildfires. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 86° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. There may still be some smoke and haze from the Canadian wildfires.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 1o 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:23 PM
Moonset: 7:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday, June 7, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A wide range of temperatures as a back-door cold front moves northeast to southwest. Cooler behind the front. Hotter in front of it. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:12 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of mainly evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 11 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 1o 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise:
Moonset: 8:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday, June 8, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 1o 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:08 AM
Moonset: 10:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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- Warm again today. Some more smoke and haze.
- Somewhat cooler mid to late week.
- Rain chances Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
- Rain chances this coming weekend into early next week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days!
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Forecast Discussion
Another nice day across the region. Warm.
RAIN WATCH
It has been seventeen days since The Weather Observatory, in Massac County, Illinois, recorded measurable rain. That is a very long streak for this time of the year.
I believe the record at the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS Office (for this time of the year) is around nineteen.
We all know we need rain! This isn’t a secret.
A few locations received rain Sunday and Sunday night. Here were those rain totals. A trace to a few spots with 0.50″. They were slow moving storms.
We did not have any precipitation yesterday or last night. The storms were down in Arkansas and Tennessee. Some of those were intense.
The good news is that we are monitoring the potential for a pattern shift mid to late June.
We have some rain chances along an incoming cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night. Not everyone will receive much needed showers and thunderstorms.
This will be another backdoor cold front. Moving in from the north and east.
This is the 500 mb vorticity map. It shows you were the system will be located. The red colors represent vorticity. Think of that as lift. You need lift for storms to form.
Rain totals will vary from 0.00″ to 0.25″. Thunderstorms can also produce higher totals. Keep that in mind.
Storms will also produce cloud to ground lightning. When thunder roars, move indoors.
Storms will produce isolated gusty winds.
Monday, we had a couple of high wind reports. Those were likely downburst winds. Downburst winds occur when thunderstorms collapse. What goes up, must come down.
Although, these events are isolated, they can produce winds in excess of 60 mph. Usually downburst winds only impact a very small area. Sometimes no larger than a block or two.
During the summer months, be aware of this.
Our next chance of rain arrives Saturday night into Sunday.
This will be in response to another cold front approaching from the west northwest.
There will be some low-end CAPE Sunday. CAPE is energy that storms tap into.
You need CAPE for severe weather to develop. The good news is that wind shear will be very weak.
A couple of Sunday’s thunderstorms could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and small hail.
There is a low end risk of a severe thunderstorm Sunday. Mainly during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Rain totals will vary Sunday. Once again, it is possible some areas receive little or no measurable rainfall. Other locations could pick up nearly an inch of rain.
Typical, for this time of the year.
Showers and thunderstorms may linger into Sunday night.
There are questions about the Monday through Thursday time frame. Whether showers and storms linger, is the question.
Another disturbance may arrive towards the middle of next week. That would bring additional rain chances.
These more frequent rain chances are arriving mid to late June. That was the forecast. Now, we need it to verify and actually happen.
Forecast Discussion
Once again, we are going to have hazy sky conditions again today.
This is in response to large wildfires in Canada. The smoke is moving into our region from the northeast. Moving south southwest.
Some of the smoke will be thick enough to lower visibility. You may even be able to smell the smoke.
This is the second or third time this year that we have had smoke in the air, because of wildfires.
You can see the movement of the smoke in this computer model simulation.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
A cold front will push into the region Wednesday.
This will provide enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Again, not everyone will experience rain.
That front will push out of the area Wednesday night. Bringing an end to rain chances.
It will be cooler behind the front.
There will be a large temperature spread across the region Wednesday. Highs in the upper 70s northeast and well into the 80s over southeast Missouri.
It will be somewhat cooler Wednesday night.
Thursday into Saturday will likely be dry. Pleasant temperatures and humidity levels.
Our next cold front arrives Saturday night into Sunday night. This will be a stronger cold front. Moving in from the west. It will once again spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
See the future-cast radars farther down in this blog update.
That front will likely exit the region Sunday night and Monday. I will need to see just how far it pushes southward. If it hangs up in our region, then there could be some additional precipitation chances.
Let’s take a look at some updated maps.
The BAM wx agriculture team has several cold front to monitor. I agree with them, as well.
The hope is that this will become the summer pattern.
Week one shows mostly below average temperatures and a cold front Wednesday and Sunday.
Week two we will watch another cold front next Wednesday and the following weekend. Mostly below average temperatures on the BAM forecast outlook with above average precipitation.
This next map shows you the percent of normal precipitation forecast.
EPS is one model. GEFS is the American ensemble model. GFS is an American model. Three different model solutions.
The day 1 through 5 percent of normal precipitation maps are drier than normal. Not the best news.
We will have some rain chances Wednesday along an incoming cold front.
The second row is the day 6 through 10 time period. We start to see a bit more green during this time frame. There is some hope of rain this coming weekend and next week.
The GEFS model is most bullish with above average precipitation. The other two models show green, as well.
The day 11 through 15 time-period now shows above average precipitation in our region.
Keep in mind, we are threading a needle here. If thunderstorm complexes form, then we will have to see where they track. These thunderstorm complexes are called MCS’s. Although they are large, they typically have dry weather to their north and south. They often times will move northwest to southeast.
Thus, some areas can miss out on the much needed rainfall. We will have to wait and see on the exact tracks.
For now, I have a more active pattern developing in the mid to late June time-frame. I have been saying this for the past few months. Let’s hope the forecast verifies. Otherwise, we are going to have problems. Drought conditions will rapidly worsen. We just need to get some rain in here.
The bottom row of graphics show you how the models have changed over the past few runs. Models run four times each day.
The week two and three graphics have been showing a trend towards wetter conditions. Note, however, the dryness to the south and north of the green zone (the area of above average precipitation).
The overall trend, has been a bit wetter. If you have any questions about these graphics then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
If you have any questions about these graphics then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
This animation is the SPC WRFModel.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
This one takes us into next week.
It has several chances of showers and thunderstorms.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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