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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Saturday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible, especially before 10 pm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Small risk before 7 pm of strong storms with gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest and west at 5-10 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% before 10 pm. 50% after 10 pm. 30% after 2 am. Decreasing chances through the night.
Coverage of precipitation: Ending from west to east
Is severe weather expected? A few evening storms could produce gusty winds and small hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B for the early evening hours. Hopefully the rain will end by evening.
Sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
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Sunday. – Mostly sunny during the morning. Breezy, at times. Perhaps some afternoon puffy clouds. Cooler. Small chance for a shower or two. Not as humid.
What impact is expected? Small chance for wet roads and lightning. Mainly over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV Index will be 9. High.
It will be a new moon and moonrise is at 6:19 a.m. and moonset is at 8:48 p.m.
Sunday Night – Just a few clouds around. Cool. Less humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 5-10 mph early and then 3-6 mph late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday. – Mostly sunny during the morning. Perhaps some afternoon puffy clouds.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Monday Night – Increasing clouds from the north. Less humid. Nice.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated. Mostly over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated over northern Kentucky and perhaps southeast Illinois
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday. A few clouds. Otherwise, quite a bit of sun. Small chance for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. I will be monitoring a storm system to our north.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: Northwest winds at 6-18-16 mph and gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Tuesday Night – Clearing. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds north/northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday. – Mostly sunny. Afternoon cumulus clouds.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Northeast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday. – A mix of sun and clouds. More humid.
What impact is expected? None to isolated
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84–86 degree range
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday. – A mix of sun and clouds. Very warm. Humid. Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. I will be monitoring for slight thunderstorm chances.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range (assuming we do not have a lot of clouds)
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday. – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% (long way off. Probabilities always start smaller and increase as confidence grows).
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Sunday. – Partly sunny. Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Monday. – Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-86 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Tuesday. – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-86 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Rain, rain, rain
- Dry weather in the charts
- Wet weather returns to the charts
The main weather story has been the relentless on and off showers and thunderstorms. It seems like we are in a pattern that just keeps on giving. We don’t need more rain. But, Saturday delivered more rain.
The good news is that there is going to be a spell of dry weather. I am hoping that Sunday (outside of a slight chance for a shower/storm early in the day) through next Thursday will be dry. I am watching two disturbances. One of those disturbances arrives on Tuesday and another on Thursday night/Friday. There should not be a lot of moisture for these system to work with. Thus, rain chances should either be non-existent or small. I did mention small chances. But, hoping it just ends up dry.
The long range charts indicate that we may enter a period of wet weather as early as next weekend. That would continue into the following week. Heavy rain is possible. Lower confidence in the long range forecast. I need to continue to monitor several more days of data. But, there is the chance that MCS’s could become an issue. It is that time of the year. MCS’s are large thunderstorm clusters. They typically move into our region during the months of June and July. They can produce heavy rain and even severe weather. Again, too far out to know for sure. The pattern, however, would favor MCS’s.
We do not need more rain.
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Saturday night: Thunderstorms likely. Lightning is the main concern. A couple of storms could be on the strong side with gusty winds and hail. There is a small threat for a severe thunderstorm.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday-Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Next Saturday-Tuesday: Thunderstorms will be possible. Low confidence.
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No major changes
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Once the showers and thunderstorms end on Saturday night and Sunday, we should have a period of dry weather into much of the new work week. No major concerns.
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No. Rain and storms should end Saturday night/Sunday morning. Then, a period of dry weather is anticipated.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rain will come to an end on Saturday night and Sunday morning. At this time, Sunday through next Thursday appears dry. Only a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Sunday. More rain is anticipated as we move towards next week into the following week.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
