Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Click the subscribe button (it is a free subscribe button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 4th  ough June 11th

Current risk:  LOW RISK.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comment:   The risk of tornadoes is low.  I am monitoring Friday for a few severe thunderstorms.  The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts.  The tornado risk will remain low.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning is possible today through Friday night.  A lower chance on Saturday and Sunday.  I will monitor Monday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  MONITOR.  Significant severe weather appears unlikely.  I can’t rule out some low-end risks this week.  The signal isn’t strong for severe storms, but a few storms could produce gusty winds or downburst winds.

I am watching Friday with a bit more interest.  The parameters may be slightly stronger on Friday, potentially leading to a few severe thunderstorms.  Once again, damaging wind would be the primary concern.

See the latest severe weather graphics below.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED ISSUES.  Locally heavy thunderstorms are expected today into the weekend.  Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  This could result in brief flooding issues.  Ditches overflowing, commonly flooded roadways, and so on.

Rain chances continue to shift southward over the weekend.  That means some areas will likely be dry on Saturday and Sunday.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO.   

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.    

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   Warm today with a few showers and storms (esp MO/IL).
•   Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances tonight into Friday night.
•   The Saturday and Sunday forecast continues to evolve.  If the cold front pushes farther south, then rain chances will be lower over our forecast area.  I continue to adjust rain probabilities for both days.  Chances will be lower north vs south. See below.
•   Locally heavy downpours are possible over the coming days.  It won’t rain all the time.  On and off chances.  Typical for this time of the year.
•   There is a low risk of severe weather over the coming days.  The primary concern will be isolated downburst winds.
•   A few showers may remain in the region on Monday as another front passes through the area.

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Good morning, everyone.

An unsettled weather pattern is expected to develop today and persist into Friday evening.  Then, it will shift southward on Saturday and Sunday.  How far south remains the biggest question.

There will be a few showers and thunderstorms today across mainly southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  The chance of rain will be lower over Kentucky and Tennessee.

Rain chances will increase tonight across a larger portion of the region.

Some of the thunderstorms could produce strong and gusty winds, dime-sized hail, and locally heavy downpours.  There is a low level risk of severe weather today through Friday.

The risk is a bit higher on Friday.  That is when instability and wind shear will be slightly higher.  See graphics below.

Once again, the primary concern will be damaging wind.  Locally heavy rain.  Lightning, of course.

Here is today’s severe weather outlook.  The dark green is where the Storm Prediction Center has placed a low-level one risk (marginal).  That is the lowest risk they have.

The light green is where storms are possible, but they are expected to remain below severe levels.

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Here is tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Once again, a level one (marginal) risk of severe weather.

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Finally, here is Friday’s SPC severe weather outlook.  A level one and two risk.  Again, Friday may have the highest probability of severe thunderstorms.  The level one risk is in dark green.  The level two risk is in yellow.

There could be adjustments to this graphic.   It is still three days out.  Monitor updates.

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Rainfall totals will vary wildly.  Typical for June.

There will be showers and thunderstorms on the radar from today through at least Friday night.  It won’t rain all the time at any given location.  However, precipitation is expected to be visible on the weather radars through the period.

During the summer months, one county could have two to three inches of rain.  A neighboring county could remain mostly dry.  If you have lived in this area for any length of time, then you will know this.

If thunderstorms train over the same area, then this will enhance rainfall totals.

Generally, rainfall totals Wednesday through Sunday (mainly today through Friday night) will range from 1.00″ to 2.00″.  Then there will be pockets of much higher totals.

Don’t be surprised if some locations end up with more than three inches of rain.  That would be the exception vs the general rule.

Here is the official WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Double click to enlarge this graphic.  This hasn’t changed much over the last few days.

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There remain questions on rain chances Saturday and Sunday.  Rain chances will be highly dependent on the placement of a stationary front.  Hopefully, the front will push farther south.

The trend has been to push it farther south.  That would be good news for most of the area.  It would push the rain into Arkansas and Tennessee.  Perhaps mostly south of my forecast counties.  I do cover the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee, so that would be the area of greatest rain probabilities.

Have a plan B, just in case of rain this weekend.  Then, you will be prepared.

Let’s look at the latest rain probability graphics.  This will give you a decent idea of what we are looking at for each twelve-hour period (7 AM to 7 PM and 7 PM to 7 AM).

These graphics display the rain probability (% chances)

Wednesday (rain chances will be higher over Missouri and Illinois vs Kentucky/Tennessee)

Wednesday night

Thursday

Thursday night

Friday

Friday night

Saturday

Saturday night

Sunday

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Notice how chances peak during the day and wane a bit at night.  That is because of the heat of the day.  Heat makes the atmosphere increasingly unstable.  Thus, peak chances will be during the afternoon and evening hours.

For now, it appears we may still have a few showers in the region on Monday.  A weak front will pass through the region on Monday.

Then, a drying trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday.

Let’s hope that holds.

It has been challenging to get a dry period in our region over the past few months.

Fingers crossed that will happen next week.

We are moving towards MCS season.

MCS’s are large summer thunderstorm complexes.  They bring most of our summer rainfall.

When we enter a northwest jetstream flow, MCS chances increase.  That is what I will be monitoring over the coming weeks.

Where does the northwest wind flow pattern develop?   That is the question.

MCS’s can bring heavy rain and damaging wind gusts.  They are common from June through late July.

It does not take much upper air energy to produce showers and thunderstorms during the month of June.  Thus, I will need to closely monitor next week’s forecast.  The week after, as well.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model.

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NAM model.  The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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The RRFS-A model. The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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