June 4, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Saturday night (late) into at least Thursday

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. The risk of severe weather through next Friday appears low, but perhaps not zero. Monitor updates.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Thunderstorms will have a lot of moisture to work with next week. This could lead to flash flooding. Extremely heavy rain is possible if slow moving thunderstorms train over the same areas. Monitor updates.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

June 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 78° to 84° / South IL 78° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 84° / West KY 78° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few evening clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:42 AM
Moonset: 2:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild. Odds favor dry conditions. There is a tiny chance of an evening thunderstorm during the heat of the late afternoon/early evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late at night
Timing of the rain: After 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:06 AM
Moonset: 3:57 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the afternoon (heat of the day)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 9 PM. Anything after 9 PM would be widely scattered or isolated.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
Moonrise: 3:30 AM
Moonset: 4:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 84° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° / West KY 80° to 84° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 3:56 AM
Moonset: 5:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 8, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 4:25 AM
Moonset: 6:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 4:58 AM
Moonset: 7:49 PM
The phase of the moon: New

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

CLICK THE IMAGES TO ENLARGE THEM

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 9th: The threat of severe thunderstorms into next week appears low. Monitor updates.

I am more concerned about the potential of heavy rain next week. Very high moisture content in the atmosphere could mean flash flooding. Monitor updates.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Drier weather today through Sunday morning
2. Becoming warmer and more humid this weekend into next week.
3. Thunderstorm chances begin to ramp up late Saturday night into at least Thursday.
4. Locally torrential downpours possible next week (high moisture content in the atmosphere).
5. Localized flash flooding next week will be a possibility.

Weather advice:

Monitor weather updates Sunday into much of next week. Locally heavy thunderstorms could produce torrential rain. Flash flooding will be possible if slow moving thunderstorms develop.

Summer concerns.

I am closely monitoring the severe drought along the West Coast into the Northern Plains and then into the Great Lakes. Portions of this region are bone dry.

Portions of northern Illinois are nearly ten inches below normal in the rainfall department (for the year).

I will be watching to see where the summer ridge of high pressure (heat ridge) develops.

Where this forms is going to be key to our summer weather. Often times, MCS’s will track along the edge of the high pressure. MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes that can produce heavy rain.

We are literally in the middle of the drought zone. In the middle means we are surrounded by drought to our southwest, west, northwest, north, and northeast.

Thankfully, we have rain. Unfortunately, other areas need rain.

Here is the GFS model showing the ridge forming to our west/southwest. That would keep us in northwest flow. Northwest flow would mean showers and thunderstorms moving our region.

Here is how the air would travel with the ridge of high pressure over the Central United States. Up and over the ridge. The white arrows represent a northwest flow into our region. That could mean MCS’s. Let’s watch this over the coming 90-days.

Forecast fires on the West Coast into Canada could mean smoke in our region at some point this summer. I am forecasting a severe fire season in those areas.

It is going to take a major pattern shift to end the drought to our west and north.

How smoke travels along the jet stream. West Coast into the northern United States and then south and east from there.

Let’s keep an eye on that as we move through the summer months.

Very heavy rain fell across portions of the region Wednesday. Rain totals varied greatly across the region over the past 48-hours. Some locations received less than 0.30″. Other locations received three to six inches of rain.

It is that time of the year where thunderstorms can produce extreme totals over small areas. I try to remind everyone of this. Let’s keep it in mind as we into next week. Several days may produce extreme rain totals over swaths of the area.

The heaviest rain, over the past 48-hours, fell across the Missouri Bootheel and then in and around the Land Between the Lakes in western Kentucky.

I did see photos of some rain gauges with more than five inches of rain. More fell after that.

Here are the final rainfall totals. Keep in mind, these are radar estimated totals. Totals can vary.

There were some flash flood warnings in southern Illinois yesterday.

Click the image to enlarge it.

You are going to notice increasing humidity over the coming days. Dew points, actually.

Dew point is how we measure moisture in the atmosphere. It is actually a better indicator than humidity.

Here is what dew points feel like (by the numbers). Air you wear. Some of these numbers mean that you step outside and you sweat.

That is what we will be watching over the coming seven days. It will become muggier.

Sunday dew point temperatures. Muggier.

Monday dew points.

Tuesday dew points.

Wednesday dew points.

Thursday dew points.

The excessive rainfall outlook from the NWS/WPC shows the green and yellow zone just to our south.

This may push northward next week. Either way, we will have locally heavy rain (scattered) Sunday into Thursday.

I can assure you that the NWS/WPC numbers are going to vary GREATLY. I would not be surprised to see rain totals from late Saturday night through Thursday range from 0.50″ to 5.00″. Some very heavy totals will occur IF thunderstorms train over the same areas. Training is what will bring about the biggest totals. Let’s keep an eye on it.

Here is the general smoothed over graphic from the NWS/WPC. Rain totals through Friday.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday afternoon and evening into the chance category. Then, becoming numerous Monday into Wednesday.

I have concerns about the amount of moisture in the atmosphere next week. Models are showing extremely high PWAT values.

Remember, PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere column. Models are showing numbers that are tropical-like.

If thunderstorms tap into this moisture then rain rates will be very high. You can expect one to two inches of rain in 15-30 minutes or less.

This could cause flash flooding. We need to monitor next weeks shower and thunderstorm chances. I would not be surprised if some locations picked up more than three or four inches of rain.

This won’t occur everywhere. Same as recent days. There will be areas of higher and areas of lesser rain totals.

Let me show you these impressive PWAT values on the GFS model. The extended period of high numbers is historically a signal for very heavy rain totals.

When you starting getting into the 1.7 to 2.2″ range, then that is extremely high moisture content. Slow moving storms can produce torrential rain totals.

Click the animation to enlarge it.

The comfort index will begin to decrease as we move into the weekend and next week. This is partly because of increasing dew points. It will become more uncomfortable outside (humid).

Friday (decent conditions)

Green is comfortable.

Saturday (still okay with the comfort index).

Sunday (decreasing comfort level). Sunday will become muggier. There may also be some thunderstorms. Thus, the comfort index is lower.

This area is in drought. Dry ground tends to heat faster than wet soil conditions. Thus, the hot temperatures are even hotter than they normally would be under this type of pattern.

I have been saying all year that I have significant concerns for drought from the West Coast across the Northern Plains and then east/southeast from there into the Great Lakes region. Then southeast from there. Hopefully, staying away from our region. Flash drought is what we need to watch for. Flash drought comes about when the rain stops for a couple of weeks and then you combine that with hot temperatures and wind.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.