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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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June 3, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: South and southeast winds becoming more south at 5 to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Is severe weather expected? I am not anticipating organized severe weather. Isolated risk with isolated storms. Typical for the summer months.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars from time to time. A couple of storms could form in the region.
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June 4, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A good chance for scattered showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL 80 to 85 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds: Mostly southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some wet roadways and lightning. Storms that form could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? A few strong storms are possible. Organized severe weather is unlikely. You can, during the summer months, have brief pulse up severe storms with gusty winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Be prepared to move indoors while thunderstorms pass.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 68 IL ~ 62 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Variable winds at 0 to 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. Gusty winds and small hail would be the primary concern. Lightning, of course.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars. Don’t cancel plans. Be prepared for some showers and thunderstorms.
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June 5, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. A good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation ending from north to south through the day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 82 to 86 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph. Gusts to 18 mph. Winds becoming more north and northwest through the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. A front moving through the area could produce a few strong storms, but organized severe weather us not anticipated.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A bit cooler. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 62 IL ~ 55 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Patchy fog perhaps.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 6, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Less humid. Pleasant day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 80 IL 76 to 82 KY 76 to 82 TN 76 to 82
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: North and northeast winds at 7 to 14 mph becoming north and northeast at 0 to 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog could reduce visibility.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 7, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL 75 to 80 KY 76 to 82 TN 76 to 82
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: North winds at 0 to 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some fog with reduced visibility
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 8, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL 76 to 84 KY 78 to 84 TN 78 to 84
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Light winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 9, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Perhaps a bit more humid. A small chance for isolated showers over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL 78 to 84 KY 78 to 84 TN 80 to 84
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Small chance for wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: Southeast at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways possible
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 10, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 80 to 85 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear to partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Saturday night through Monday: A few storms possible. Many areas may remain dry through Saturday night. A few spots will pick up torrential rain, small hail, and gusty winds. Lightning, of course.
Storm coverage should increase on Sunday. Expect storms on radar. Weak system moving through. Be prepared for lightning, brief downpours, gusty winds, and pea to dime size hail. I would not cancel any events, but I would check radars.
Weather Analysis for the coming week:
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
The main weather story, for the next 36 hours, will be scattered thunderstorms, especially on Sunday. Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms could briefly pulse up to severe levels with downburst winds possible and small hail. Overall, the severe weather risk at any given location is very small.
Cloud to ground lightning will be an issue. Slow moving storms can drop a quick one to two inches of rain, as well. Keep that in mind. Some areas may receive little in the way of rainfall.
Showers and storms may linger into Monday morning and early afternoon.
A cold front will move through the region by Monday evening. Cooler, drier, and more pleasant air will arrive for Monday night through at least Thursday night. This should provide farmers with a chance to work in the fields without interruption.
Patchy fog is possible Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday night.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
