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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
🥵 Heat Continues Through the Week
A large area of high pressure will remain parked over the southeastern United States, keeping the Quad State region very hot and humid through the rest of the week.
High temperatures will stay mostly in the middle 90s through Friday. Combined with very humid air, it will feel like 105 to 115 degrees during the hottest part of the day today through Thursday. Be sure to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks if you’re outdoors, and never leave children or pets in vehicles.
By Thursday and Friday, the high-pressure system will begin to shift east. This will allow a few weather disturbances to move into the region, bringing a 20% to 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, increasing to a 30% to 40% chance Friday afternoon and Friday night.
Rain chances will continue through the weekend and into Monday, with 30% to 50% chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for storms will be during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The extra clouds and scattered rain will help lower temperatures a little over the weekend. Even so, it will still be hot, with heat index values generally between 100 and 105 degrees.
Another chance for rain arrives Monday with a possible cold front. If the front moves through as expected, temperatures and humidity should become a little more comfortable early next week.
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
June 30th through July 6th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: UNLIKELY. Summer thunderstorms can produce strong and gusty winds in isolated spots. I can’t rule that out as we move into the weekend
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Lightning is possible on Thursday into the weekend. Isolated chances.
2. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. This entire week into the weekend.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. All week into the weekend.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? POSSIBLE. This week.
Here are the heat index values for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
Tuesday
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Wednesday
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Thursday
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Friday
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Your body responds to the heat index. The heat index is more important than the actual temperature. More information about the heat index: Click here.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.
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Here were the 5 AM temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
This won’t be exact because the graphic is attempting to figure out where scattered summer storms will form.
There will be scattered torrential downpours in summer storms. Same as every summer. That will not be captured by these graphics.
Take a general idea from these graphics. Many areas will receive little rainfall. Some will receive quite a bit in slow moving summer storms.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the five-day rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Thursday
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Thursday night
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Friday
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Friday night
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Saturday
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Saturday night
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Sunday
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Sunday night
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Monday
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K Model
NOTHING IS SHOWING ON THIS MODEL.
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Hrrr Model
NOTHING IS SHOWING ON THIS MODEL.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
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🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
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Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
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