Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

June 30, 2024: Nicer weather for a couple of days. Monitoring thunderstorm chances mid to late week.

 

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.   Isolated lightning risk today (Sunday).  A chance of lightning Wednesday through at least Saturday.  I will need to monitor next Sunday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  MONITOR.   A few of the thunderstorms mid to late week could produce damaging wind gusts.  A low-end severe weather risk.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? POSSIBLE.   Thunderstorm complexes could produce two to four inches of rain in a few short hours.  I will be monitoring mid to late week.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees?  POSSIBLE.  Heat index values may approach or exceed 100 degrees Wednesday.  I will monitor the other days.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees?  NOT AT THIS TIME.

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  NO.

9.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  NO.

10.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.  
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines  Freezing fog possible, as well.

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Fire weather risk level.

Sunday through Sunday night: 3.  Very low risk.
Monday: 4. Low  risk.
Monday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

A cold front will move across the region early this morning with scattered showers and storms. A wetting rain is possible in a few locations before quiet weather arrives later today. Much drier air moves in tonight with minRH values around 35-40% on Monday. Dispersion will generally be good today with north winds, but will be more poor on Monday due to a lighter east wind.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.



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Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A cold front will be pushing through the region.  A few scattered storms.  Otherwise, a cooler drier air-mass will filter into the region from the north.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  10%
Southern Illinois ~  20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  40%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before noon.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~  82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°

Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 88°

Winds will be from this direction:  North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°

Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:22 AM
Moonset: 3:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  0%
Southern Illinois ~  0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°

Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°

Winds will be from this direction:  East 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°

Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:52 AM
Moonset: 4:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  0%
Southern Illinois ~  0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°

Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 92°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 92°

Winds will be from this direction:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A small chance of a late night thunderstorm towards our far northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  A small chance far north.
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°

Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none (I will monitor our far northern counties).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:27 AM
Moonset: 5:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Wednesday Forecast:  Partly sunny. Warmer. More humid.  A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  30%
Southern Illinois ~  30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~  30%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the afternoon and evening.  A lower chance before noon.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 95°
Southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 95°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 92° to 95°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 92° to 95°

Southern Illinois ~ 92° to 95°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 92° to 95°
Far western Kentucky ~ 92° to 95°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 92° to 95°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 92° to 95°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 92° to 95°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 108°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lighting.  Heavy rain.  Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the weather radars
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~40%
Southeast Missouri ~  40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  30%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous (more numerous if we have a complex of thunderstorms).
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 74°

Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:09 AM
Moonset: 6:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Thursday Forecast:  Partly sunny. Warmer. More humid.  A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  40%
Southern Illinois ~  40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  40%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°

Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lighting.  Heavy rain.  Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B ready.  Thunderstorms are possible.
UV Index:  8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~40%
Southeast Missouri ~  40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  40%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous (more numerous if we have a complex of thunderstorms).
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 74°

Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:00 AM
Moonset: 7:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

    1.    Somewhat  nicer today into Monday night.  Behind the cold front.
    2.    Warmer weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday.
    3.    Muggy and unsettled weather mid to late week.
    4.    Locally heavy thunderstorms could produce additional flash flooding concerns.
    5.    Those with outdoor activities should monitor updates.

 

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

A cold front is pushing across the region.

Overnight, very heavy thunderstorms moved across the area.  Some counties received two to five inches of rain!  There was some flooding reported in far southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.  Some of the heavy rain extended into western Tennessee, as well.

Those thunderstorms developed along a front boundary that is slowly moving southward through the region.

You can see lower dew points north of the front.  Higher muggy dew points south of the front.

10 am dew points.  It feels nice over our northern counties.  Muggy southern counties.

A LARGE range of heat index values.  You can see the front was brought cooler temperatures over our northern counties.

Here were the 10 am observations.  Sunday.

The good news is that the cooler air will filter into the region today and tonight.  As a matter of fact, some locations may dip into the 50s tonight and Monday night.  You can open your windows!  It will feel great outside.

Highs Monday will mostly be in the 80s.  Lower dew points will make it feel better.  A great day for outdoor activities or work.

Hot and muggier air will push back into the region by Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.

Heat index values Wednesday will rise into the lower 100’s.  Perhaps heat advisory levels.  Either way, hot and humid weather returns.

Active weather mid to late week.

A series of cold fronts will push into the region Wednesday into the weekend.  This will mean on and off thunderstorm chances.  Some of the storms will tap into very muggy humid air.  That equals extremely heavy rainfall totals.

I would not be surprised if some locations receive 4 to 8 inches of rain this week.

MCS’s will be a concern.  See below for more information on MCS’s.

These MCS”s could train over the same areas.  If that happens, then excessive rainfall totals will be an issue.

Some of the thunderstorms could be severe, as well.

There is not a strong signal for severe weather, but I am watching Thursday.

Otherwise, we will be on the watch for thunderstorm complexes Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

If the front pushes farther southward, then thunderstorm chances will be lower.  I will need to monitor the placement of the front.

For now, I capped rainfall probabilities around 40%.  I would not be a bit surprised if there were some 12 hour time periods where we have to bump those up to 60% to 80%.

MCS’s are not known for their predictability.  Thus, I will need to monitor each 12 to 24 hour window of time.

If you remember, last summer we had 10 to 20+ inches of rain in July from a series of MCS’s.  August brought additional ones.

We will have to closely monitor the weather pattern over the coming weeks.  We will be swinging between the heat ridge (dry) and MCS’s (floods).  The placement of the heat dome/the heat ridge will determine where the MCS’s move.

MCS’s can bring damaging wind, as well.

Microburst winds can also occur with summer thunderstorms.  Microbursts occur when thunderstorms collapse.  All that air pushes downward and outward.  This can cause damage to trees and power lines.

A microburst is a localized column of sinking air (downdraft) within a thunderstorm and is usually less than or equal to 2.5 miles in diameter. Microbursts can cause extensive damage at the surface, and in some instances, can be life-threatening. 

 


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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

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This  animation is the NAM Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

 

 

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This  animation is the FV3 Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the HRRR Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the EC Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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