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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
I have a SEVERE WEATHER THREAD going on Facebook today.
Here is the link to the severe weather thread CLICK HERE
An excessive heat advisory has been issued for most of the region. Portions of the region are in an excessive heat warning.
It’s going to be hot. That is the bottom line. Especially, Thursday into Friday. Perhaps Saturday.
Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and any thunderstorm activity, keep that in mind.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is likely today through the weekend. Lightning is possible next week, as well.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Some storms could be severe this week/weekend. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary threat. An isolated tornado threat.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Slow moving or training thunderstorms could cause flash flooding.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values will rise above 100 degrees today and tomorrow.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Friday, June 30, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Hot. Mostly sunny over much of the region. Partly cloudy over Illinois and Kentucky. We will once again need to monitor for any thunderstorm complexes that could dive south southeast out of Illinois and Indiana. Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 103° to 106°
Southeast Missouri ~ 102° to 104°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100° to 104°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 98° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 100° to 104°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100° to 104°
Far western Kentucky ~ 98° to 102°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 98° to 102°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100° to 102°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 105° to 115° locally higher
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:21 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Warm. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 5:47 PM
Moonset: 2:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday, July 01, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 94° to 98°
Southeast Missouri ~ 94° to 98
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 94° to 98
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 94° to 98
Southern Illinois ~ 94° to 98
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 94° to 98
Far western Kentucky ~ 94° to 98
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 94° to 98
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 94° to 98
Northwest Tennessee ~ 94° to 98
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105° locally higher
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 7:00 PM
Moonset: 3:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday, July 02, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 8:10 PM
Moonset: 34:19 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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- Severe thunderstorm threats.
- Heat wave.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days! Review summer heat safety rules.
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Forecast Discussion
Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers
Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation. Keep that in mind.
Tracking thunderstorms and heat.
Thursday was one of the more extreme weather days in quite some time.
Check out over 500 severe weather reports. Mostly from a derecho that moved through Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky.
Double click images to enlarge them.
We had heat index values, at one point, that ranged from 122 degrees in southeast Missouri down to 68 degrees in Owensboro. At the same time.
We had some locations that received three to seven inches of rain. There were reports of 80 mph wind gusts with golf ball size hail.
Some locations reached over 100 degrees. While other locations were in the 60s.
Here was the heat index map late in the afternoon.
Remember, I told you we would have extreme temperature gradients with wildly different numbers depending on clouds and thunderstorms.
Multiple MCS’s tracked across Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky. Many of those MCS”s produced widespread wind damage, hail, and flash flooding.
No less than three MCS’s tracked through our northeastern and eastern counties. These storms produced numerous reports of wind damage, hail, and flooding.
This is what those MCS’s looked like at one point during the mid-afternoon hours. The IR satellite showed very cold cloud tops (the red colors). These are severe thunderstorms.
Thursday was a crazy weather day in our region!
Here were the radar estimated rain totals from yesterday. An extreme event with some locations topping SEVEN inches of rain!
We have several days of very active weather ahead of us.
The pattern has been active and will remain active in next week. We could have multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms will be severe with damaging wind, hail, and flash flooding. Lightning, as well.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a risk of severe weather today, tomorrow, and Sunday.
Perhaps the highest risk will be tomorrow.
Either way, supercell thunderstorms and lines of thunderstorms will likely deliver much needed rainfall to the region. Some areas, however, will receive too much rain. Same as yesterday.
Flash flooding will be a concern in some areas. One to three inches of rain per hour will be possible in the most intense thunderstorms.
Avoid flooded roadways.
Stay weather aware over the coming days. Each day will be a bit different on the timing of the thunderstorms. This will need to be monitored.
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app for the most up to date messages and alerts.
It will also be hot today and tomorrow.
Highs today could top 100 degrees in some areas. Heat index values of 100 to 115 degrees.
Highs Saturday could approach the middle and upper 90s (depending on cloud cover and precipitation). Heat index values will once again jump above 100 degrees. Muggy air.
This can be a dangerous heat for the young and elderly. It can make for dangerous work conditions for those who have to work outside, as well.
Use caution, as always. Know the symptoms for heat related illnesses.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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