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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Monday night – Partly cloudy. A 10% chance for an evening thunderstorm. Lows in the 60’s with west and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? A couple of storms possible during early evening. Most areas should be fine.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for a strong storm in the evening.
What impact is expected? No major impacts. If a storm remains then lightning.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Pleasant day for summer. A 30% chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the 80’s with west/southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 20% at any given location. Two in ten chance.
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then lightning is the main concern.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy. A 20% chance for a thunderstorm. Lows in the 60’s with west and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might be some evening precipitation. Monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather.
What impact is expected? No major impacts. If a storm remains then lightning.
Wednesday – A 40%-60% chance for morning precipitation and a 60%-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain possible. Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s with southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have alternative plans in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? Not anticipated widespread severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60% morning and 60%-70% chance in the afternoon.
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then lightning is the main concern. Marginal risk for some hail and strong winds.
Wednesday night – Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain possible. Lows in the 60’s. Southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have a back up plan in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? A strong storm possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-70% chance
What impact is expected? Heavy downpours and lightning.
Thursday – A 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible. Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s with southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have alternative plans in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? Not anticipating widespread severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% chance
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then lightning is the main concern. Marginal risk for some hail and strong winds.
Rain and storm chances will likely continue into the weekend. Monitor updates. I would not cancel plans, yet. I would keep an eye on the percentage chances for storms, as we move forward.
Locally heavy rain possible.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Saying goodbye to June. A wet one for much of the region.
2. Unsettled week with multiple chances for rain.
3. Some locally heavy rain possible later this week.
4. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
June was a wet one for much our region. Some places measured over a foot of rain. And we wonder why the rivers are rising.
Check out these rainfall numbers from the past 30 days. Hard to read the numbers, but read the scale on the right. Purple = big big totals for the Month of June.
THIS IS WHAT FELL IN JUNE (this is not a forecast of will be coming).
Let me zoom in. Missouri and Illinois picked up the most rain. And, that was the June forecast. Missouri and Illinois would stand better chances for precipitation vs Kentucky and Tennessee.
Lets look now at Missouri and Illinois. Again, hard to read the numbers. Check the scale on the right. Images are from weatherbell.com One of my favorite sources for weather data.
Now, if you have been reading Weather Talk for the last month you will know that I have been forecasting a cooler than normal July with above normal precipitation.
July will continue the theme of wet. But, with one difference. Instead of the day in and day out stifling heat…July should bring mostly normal to below normal temperatures. Of course below normal temperatures in July won’t mean cold weather. But, it might feel better than most years.
The cooler than normal weather will come at a price. Rain and storms. Possibly a lot of rain and storms. I am forecasting 4-8 inches of rain for parts of our region over the coming 2 week period. Let’s check back on the accuracy of that forecast in two weeks. Does not mean each and every one of you will pick up those totals. But slices of our region will. All depending on the track of each disturbance that will dive down from the northwest…following the upper level wind patterns.
Northwest flow equals to an active weather forecast.
We will have small chances for storms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Much better chances by Wednesday into Friday. Widespread rain and storms will occur on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Locally heavy rain is a concern.
Severe weather concerns won’t be zero, but they don’t look large, either. Monitor updates and trends as we move forward.
Some future-cast maps. The green indicates precipitation. Bright colors represent heavy rain.
This map is for Wednesday at noon. Looks like a lot of rain in the region. If you have Wednesday/Thursday plans then keep this in mind. You can see an area of low pressure out in eastern Kansas.
Moving ahead to Wednesday night. The low moves east. Could be some strong storms. Heavy rain a good bet for some of our counties.
Moving ahead to Thursday at noon. Rain lingers in the region.
By Friday morning…a few lingering showers.
By Friday evening we see showers and storms attempting to push into our southern and western counties. This will need to be monitored. Timing of precipitation can be tricky with these northwest flow events and stalled fronts.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Fourth of July storms or nice weather?
2. River flooding concerns
3. As promised, cooler than normal likely over coming 2 weeks. Cooler is relative for July.
With an unsettled week of weather ahead of us, many are asking about the Fourth of July weather.
Well, I can’t promise you it won’t rain. Hopefully it won’t be a washout. A series of disturbances will keep our region on its toes when it comes to checking the forecast. On and off rain and storm chances may remain with us for much of July. Not a typical July for our region.
A northwest flow is forecast well into the month (if not for most of the month). If this happens then one disturbance after another will dive down from the northwest and help trigger periodic rain chances. The summer forecast was for July to average below normal in the temperature department and above normal in the rainfall department. We will see if that happens.
If you have weekend plans then keep checking back for updated information.
Let’s look at one model. It does paint some green over our region this weekend. Green would be rain and storms.
Here is the 7 am model map for Saturday morning. Keep in mind this is a long way off for a model to nail the details. You can see most of the region is precipitation free, according to the GFS model.
Then by Saturday evening…some showers back into the area.
Moving ahead to Sunday at 12 pm. The model shows some rain in the region.
Again, long way off for a model to nail the details. Monitor updates.
Check out this long range temperature forecast for July. The blue indicates mostly below normal temperatures. We may bounce around from normal to below normal temperatures for much of the month.
This map is from Weatherbell.com.
CFS-2 temperature forecast is for July 3rd through July 13th. Averages.
River flooding continues to be an issue in our region. Recent heavy rainfall isn’t helping our cause. More heavy rain could cause additional problems.
Historically a pattern like this means multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Some storms could be heavy. I have concerns that the rivers are so high. This will need to be monitored.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Rain chances this week will deliver quite a bit of rain to parts of the region. Where slow moving thunderstorms train over the same counties you can expect to pick up a quick 1-2″ of rain. Locally higher. We will need to monitor for flash flooding over the coming weeks.
Over the next couple of weeks it is possible that some counties pick up 4-8 inches of rain. Hopefully this won’t be widespread in nature. I have concerns about the rivers rising (even more than they already have).
Here is the official 7 day rainfall forecast from NOAA (some of this may be underdone)
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is a marginal TWO for Tuesday into Wednesday.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. Thunder possible.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible. Heavy rain possible Wednesday night.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible. Heavy rain possible.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
A storm or two possible on Tuesday.
Heavy rain possible Wednesday night or Thursday/Friday.
Rivers will continue to remain high over the coming week. Check the lake and river stages for details.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
