Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Click the subscribe button (it is a free subscribe button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 3rd  ough June 10th

Current risk:  LOW RISK.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comment:   The risk of tornadoes is low.  I am monitoring Friday for a few severe thunderstorms.  The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts.  The tornado risk will remain low.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning is possible late tonight through Sunday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  MONITOR.  Significant severe weather appears unlikely.  I can’t rule out some low-end risks this week.  The signal isn’t strong for severe storms, but there may be a few days with a low-end marginal risk.  Damaging wind would be the primary concern.

I am watching Friday with a bit more interest.  The parameters may be slightly stronger on Friday, potentially leading to a few severe thunderstorms.  Once again, damaging wind would be the primary concern.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED.  Locally heavy thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into the weekend.  Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  This could result in brief flooding issues.  Ditches overflowing, commonly flooded roadways, and so on.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  UNLIKELY.  A few reporting stations could reach 90 or above today and tomorrow, but most areas will remain in the eighties. 

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.    

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   Above-average temperatures today and tomorrow.  Then, normal to below average temperatures are expected into the weekend.
•   Gusty winds are expected today on area lakes and rivers.
•   Haze again today from Canadian wildfires.
•   Unsettled weather Wednesday into the weekend.
•   On and off shower and thunderstorm chances.  Locally heavy downpours.

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Good morning, everyone.

We are still experiencing haze in the region due to the massive Canadian wildfires.

You can see it here on the overnight satellite view.

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Here is the latest smoke outlook for today and tomorrow.   With time, the smoke will push eastward.

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I don’t have any weather concerns today.  Warm.  A little humid, but nothing extreme.

Southerly winds will be gusty today.  Ranging from 10 to 25 mph.  If you are boating, then this could cause some issues.  There is a lake wind advisory in effect through the afternoon hours.

I can’t rule out a few showers and thunderstorms late tonight over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Let’s look at those rain probabilities.  This is from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday, mainly after midnight.  Most of the region will remain dry through Wednesday morning.

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Increasingly unsettled weather begins tomorrow.

A cold front will stall over our region.  Becoming a stationary front.

That front will then become the focus of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  It won’t rain all the time, of course.  However, there will be intermittent chances from Wednesday into the weekend.

The weekend forecast will be highly dependent on how quickly the front pushes southward or dissipates.  If it speeds up a bit, then perhaps we can lower rain chances Saturday and Sunday.  For now, however, we have a chance of precipitation Friday through Sunday.

There remain questions on rain chances Saturday and Sunday.  The EC model is faster.  It pushes the front southward and lowers rain chances on Saturday and Sunday.  The GFS data is slower.  It keeps rain chances going into the weekend.

Have a plan B, just in case of rain.  Then, you will be prepared.

Let’s look at the latest rain probability graphics.  This will give you a decent idea of what we are looking at for each twelve-hour period (7 AM to 7 PM and 7 PM to 7 AM).

These graphics display the rain probability (% chances)

Wednesday (rain chances will be higher over Missouri and Illinois vs Kentucky/Tennessee)

Wednesday night

Thursday

Thursday night

Friday

Friday night

Saturday

Saturday night

Sunday

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Notice how chances peak during the day and wane a bit at night.  That is because of the heat of the day.  Heat makes the atmosphere increasingly unstable.  Thus, peak chances will be during the afternoon and evening hours.

The overall severe weather risk is low over the coming days.  I can’t rule out some isolated issues.  Perhaps a low-end severe weather risk.

Let’s look at what the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting for the risk of severe thunderstorms.

This is the outlook for Wednesday.  They have a level one risk over portions of southern Illinois.  The light green is where sub-severe storms are possible (below severe limits).  The dark green is the level one risk (the lowest risk they have).

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Then, on Thursday, they have a level one risk over portions of southeast Missouri

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Then, on Friday, they have a level two (slight) risk over portions of the region.  The yellow zone is a level 2 (slight risk).

This will evolve with time.  I will be monitoring it.  They don’t issue a level one risk beyond day three.  You can assume that there would be a level one risk around the yellow zone, as well.

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Rainfall totals will vary wildly.

During the summer months, one county could have two to three inches of rain.  A neighboring county could remain dry.  If you have lived in this area for any length of time, then you will know this.

If thunderstorms train over the same area, then this will enhance rainfall totals.

Generally, rainfall totals Wednesday through Sunday will range from 1.00″ to 2.00″.  Then there will be pockets of two to three inches or more of rain.  Not the best news for farmers.

Here is the official WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.  Double click to enlarge this graphic.

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Hurricane season is underway.

No significant tropical concerns at this time.  This is the seven-day tropical outlook.

There is a ten percent chance of development off the southeast coast.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model.

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GFS model.  The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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The EC model. The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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