June 3, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today. Isolated Friday and Saturday. Scattered Sunday into much of next week. There may be periods of numerous thunderstorms next week, as well. Monitor updates.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A couple of storms today could produce gusty wind and dime size hail. A few storms next week could produce downburst winds. Very heavy rain is possible next week if thunderstorms develop.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Thunderstorms will have a lot of moisture to work with next week. This could lead to flash flooding. Extremely heavy rain is possible if slow moving thunderstorms train over the same areas. Monitor updates.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

June 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be higher across southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Lesser coverage across the rest of the area.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Some clearing overnight. A chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm. Most of the rain should have come to an end.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Early evening.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 62° / South IL 56° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated evening wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:17 AM
Moonset: 2:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Odds now favor Friday remaining dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 78° to 82° / South IL 78° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° / West KY 78° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind 4 to 8 mph. Variable in direction.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few evening clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:42 AM
Moonset: 2:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. Humid. Odds now favor Saturday remaining dry. Just a tiny chance of a pop-up heat of the day storm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the rain: Most likely dry. If a storm were to form it would be after 2 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. A slight chance of an isolated wet roadway and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild. Odds favor dry conditions. There is a tiny chance of an evening thunderstorm during the heat of the late afternoon/early evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. A tiny chance of an evening thunderstorm with wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:06 AM
Moonset: 3:57 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the afternoon (heat of the day)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild. A scattered thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 9 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
Moonrise: 3:30 AM
Moonset: 4:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 3:56 AM
Moonset: 5:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 8, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 4:25 AM
Moonset: 6:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 4:58 AM
Moonset: 7:49 PM
The phase of the moon: New

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

Click images to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 9th: At this time, severe weather chances appear low, but not zero. A couple of storms could produce gusty wind today and dime size hail.

I am more concerned about the potential of heavy rain next week. Very high moisture content in the atmosphere could mean flash flooding. Monitor updates.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Thunderstorms today.
2. Drier Friday and Saturday (small thunderstorm chances).
3. Muggier weather developing.
4. Monitoring thunderstorm chances Sunday into much of next week.
5. Very high PWAT values next week could mean flash flooding.

Weather advice:

Monitor weather updates Sunday into much of next week. Locally heavy thunderstorms could produce torrential rain. Flash flooding will be possible if slow moving thunderstorms develop.

Very heavy rain fell across portions of the region Wednesday. Rain totals varied greatly across the region over the past 48-hours. Some locations received less than 0.30″. Other locations received three to six inches of rain.

It is that time of the year where thunderstorms can produce extreme totals over small areas. I try to remind everyone of this. Let’s keep it in mind as we into next week. Several days may produce extreme rain totals over swaths of the area.

The heaviest rain, over the past 48-hours, fell across the Missouri Bootheel and then in and around the Land Between the Lakes in western Kentucky.

I did see photos of some rain gauges with more than five inches of rain. More fell after that.

Here is a zoomed in shot of the LBL area. Impressive rain totals. There were reports of roads washed out from this flash flood.

Click the image to enlarge it.

Some other areas, as well

I also want to remind everyone that it is also that time of the year where we can see heat of the day pop-up thunderstorms. These thunderstorms can produce 50 mph wind gusts and torrential downpours.

A 20% chance of thunderstorms does not mean that it is not going to rain. It means that a few spots may receive precipitation, but much of the region may remain dry.

Some people get mad when it rains on a day where rain is in the forecast! Summer storms tend to be a bit more isolated.

We still have unsettled weather in the region today. As of this writing (7 AM) there was an area of showers and thunderstorms across much of southern Illinois. Neighboring states had a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Coverage today will be higher across southern Illinois and western Kentucky vs southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee.

Locally heavy rain and lightning are the primary concern into this afternoon.

The rain will come to an end tonight and we should remain dry to mostly dry Friday into Saturday night. There could be an isolated thunderstorm during that time-frame. The percentage chances, however are low.

We will have increasing temperatures and dew points over the weekend. That means that it is going to feel more and more like summer. Air you wear, as Jim Rasor usually says.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday afternoon and evening into the chance category. Then, becoming numerous Monday into Wednesday.

I have concerns about the amount of moisture in the atmosphere next week. Models are showing extremely high PWAT values.

Remember, PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere column. Models are showing numbers that are tropical-like.

If thunderstorms tap into this moisture then rain rates will be very high. You can expect one to two inches of rain in 15 minutes or less.

This could cause flash flooding. We need to monitor next weeks shower and thunderstorm chances. I would not be surprised if some locations picked up more than three or four inches of rain.

This won’t occur everywhere. Same as recent days. There will be areas of higher and areas of lesser rain totals.

Let me show you these impressive PWAT values on the GFS model. The extended period of high numbers is historically a signal for very heavy rain totals.

When you starting getting into the 1.7 to 2.2″ range, then that is extremely high moisture content. Slow moving storms can produce torrential rain totals.

Click the animation to enlarge it.

The comfort index will begin to decrease as we move into the weekend and next week. This is partly because of increasing dew points. It will become more uncomfortable outside (humid).

Friday (decent conditions)

Green is comfortable.

Saturday (still okay with the comfort index).

Sunday (decreasing comfort level). Sunday will become muggier.

Monday and Tuesday (decreasing because of the chance of thunderstorms and muggy conditions)

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.