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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Thursday Night – Some clouds. Humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible, especially early in the evening.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5-10 mph. Higher near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before 7 pm. 30% after 7 pm.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No, but a few evening storms could be strong with gusty winds and dime size hail. Lightning is the main concern.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Keep this in mind. It will not rain all day Friday and Saturday. BUT, there will be at least chances of showers and thunderstorms. Especially true for Saturday (cold front arrives). Have a plan B in your back pocket. Storms could be an issue from time to time. Again, not an all day rain. But, enough to cause problems.
Friday. – Partly sunny. Humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range. Temperatures may vary greatly because of cloud cover.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph. Higher near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No, but if storms form they could be strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and dime size hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. Have a plan B.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and perhaps lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 63-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph. Higher near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No, but if storms form they could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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Saturday. – Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms will produce frequent lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy rain possible. Gusty winds near storms. Small chance for hail.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 15 mph. Higher near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce strong winds and small hail. Lightning and heavy downpours are the primary concern. There is a small risk of a few storms becoming severe.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a solid plan B.
Saturday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible, especially before 10 pm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest and west at 5-10 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50% before 10 pm. 40% after 10 pm. 30% after 2 am. Decreasing chances through the night.
Coverage of precipitation: Ending from west to east
Is severe weather expected? A few evening storms could produce gusty winds and small hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a plan B for the early evening hours. Hopefully the rain will end by evening.
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Sunday. – Mostly sunny during the morning. Perhaps some afternoon puffy clouds. Cooler. Small chance for a shower or two. Not as humid.
What impact is expected? Small chance for wet roads and lightning. Mainly over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Cool. Less humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday. – Mostly sunny during the morning. Perhaps some afternoon puffy clouds.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Monday Night – Mostly clear. Less humid. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday. A few clouds. Otherwise, quite a bit of sun.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: Northwest winds at 6-18-16 mph and gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds north/northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday. – Mostly sunny. Afternoon cumulus clouds.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Northeast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday. – Mostly sunny and warmer. More humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thursday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday. – Mostly sunny and warmer. Humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Warm.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday. – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% (long way off. Probabilities always start smaller and increase as confidence grows).
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Sunday. – Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Monday. – Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-86 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Monday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Tuesday. – Partly sunny. Warm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-86 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Have a plan B for Friday and Saturday. Storms are possible.
- Dry weather Sunday through Friday! That is a good bet. Small chance for a shower on Sunday.
- Another cold front next Friday night or Saturday?
- Possible hot weather Thursday and Friday of next week. I consider hot to be 90 degrees or above. I can’t rule out some 90s. Let’s monitor trends.
Have you noticed the pattern we have been in over the last few months? It has been on and off wet/dry/wet/dry. You can almost time it. We have been experiencing numerous showers and thunderstorms over the past few days. Guidance shows dry most of next week. It is the ‘she loves me ~ she loves me not’ weather pattern.
We have two more days with thunderstorm chances. Both Friday and Saturday will deliver scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be heavy. PWAT values are in the 1.6-2.0 range. That is a LOT of moisture for thunderstorms to work with. Locally heavy downpours will drop 1-3″ per hour into your rain gauge. Pockets of flash flooding can’t be ruled out. Much like the last few weeks. Where it rains it could rain quite heavily.
Not everyone will pick up these big totals. Again, same as the last few weeks. This is typical for late spring and early summer. The atmosphere is saturated.
A cold front will push in from the west on Saturday afternoon and night. This will bring an end to our thunderstorm chances. Thankfully. We need a break!
Here are the PWAT forecast charts for Saturday. Bright yellows and some reds. That means there is plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to work with. That equation equals heavy downpours.
Images are from weatherbell.com
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Afternoon PWAT chart
The threat for severe weather is low. Wind fields are weak. That has been the story of the last year or two. Weak wind fields. There will be plenty of CAPE for thunderstorms to work with. CAPE is basically a measure of energy in the atmosphere. Higher CAPE numbers are often associated with severe weather. But, with weak wind fields, the risk for severe weather appears low. It isn’t zero, but it is low. The main severe weather concern would be a few thunderstorms producing isolated down bursts. Down bursts winds can top 60 mph. Normally in a very small area (sometimes only a block or two wide).
Storms have been prolific lightning producers over the last few days. Cloud to ground lightning will be a concern for outdoor activities. Keep that in mind. See the live lightning tracker in the link section (scroll down).
It won’t rain all day on Saturday. But, there will be plenty of showers and storms on radar. I would strongly recommend having a plan B. It appears you will have to deal with some thunderstorms.
GREAT NEWS in the long range forecast. Sunday through next Friday should deliver a dry streak. There is a small chance for a shower on Sunday. Nothing substantial. Might you finally be able to mow your yard? Farmers will appreciate it, as well. I feel confident in stacking up several days of dry weather.
Check out the 500 mb wind map for Monday. Notice how the jet stream dives into our region from the northwest? That will deliver a nicer air mass. Less humid. A trough (dip) in the jet stream. We call this northwest flow. Winds are from the northwest.
Here is the latest precipitation forecast for Monday through Saturday of next week. Again, maybe some storms next Friday night or Saturday. But, below normal precipitation is anticipated for most of next week.
Guidance is hinting at hot weather towards next Thursday and Friday. Upper 80s or lower 90s are in the charts. I didn’t bite too hard on those numbers. But, I am expecting middle to perhaps upper 80s later next week.
Here are the temperatures for Sunday through Wednesday. Lower humidity, as well. Although, with the ground so saturated, dew points might be higher than normal. Higher dew points would mean more moisture in the air. We will have to see how that unfolds.
Another cold front is showing up for Friday night or Saturday of next week. That could deliver a round of thunderstorms in or near our region. Too far out for specifics. I am monitoring for a stormier pattern from next Friday night into the following week. We may have several chances for thunderstorms.
Here is the 500 mb wind map for next Saturday. See the trough over our region? That could mean unsettled weather. A trough is when the jet stream dips down from the northwest and then curves up into the northeast. Troughs are associated with stormier weather. A ridge is when the jet stream moves in from the southwest and goes up and over our region. It then dives back to the southeast. A ridge usually brings dry and hot weather.
This image is from wright-weather. The colors represent wind speeds high above the surface of the earth. This is part of the jet stream.
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday and Wednesday night: Scattered thunderstorms possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Thursday and Thursday night: Scattered thunderstorms possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Friday and Friday night: Isolated thunderstorms possible on Friday and scattered storms possible Friday night. Lightning is the main concern.
Saturday: A chance for scattered thunderstorms. Lightning is the main concern. A couple of storms could be on the strong side.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday-Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Added next weeks forecast numbers.
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A couple of concerns for the next few days. The first concern will be thunderstorms with frequent lightning and heavy downpours. The atmosphere has a lot of moisture for thunderstorm to work with. PWAT values are near the top of the chart for this time of the year. Downpours could produce 1-3″ of rain per hour. Slow moving storms will be a concern. Isolated flash flooding can’t be ruled out.
The next concern will be cloud to ground lightning. Thunderstorms, over the last few days, have produced frequent lightning. Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data links.
If you have plans on Friday or Saturday then have a back up plan. Especially true for Saturday. It might not rain all day, but there will be storms on radar.
The risk for severe weather is low. But, the risk is not zero. Keep that in mind. A couple of storms could produce down burst winds. Small hail, as well.
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Yes, monitor radars if you have outdoor plans. Throw an umbrella and parka in the car. There will be some locally heavy showers and thunderstorms from now into Saturday evening.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
