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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday Night – A few clouds. Cool with lows in the 50’s. Northeast winds at 5 mph.
Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny and warmer. Only a 10% chance of a popup shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Expecting the sun to be out. Some patchy fog possible. Early morning temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Light winds.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Mostly sunny and mild. Highs in the 80’s. Light winds.
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy. Cool. Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thursday – Some increase in clouds. Warm with highs in the 80’s. East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay, but monitor updates.
Thursday night – Some clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Mainly the northern half of the region. Lows will be in the 60’s. Chance for precipitation 20%. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Friday – Partly sunny and warmer. A chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm moving in from the north/northwest. A bit more humid. Highs will be in the 80’s. Chance for precipitation at any given spot will be 20%. South/southeast winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay, but monitor updates. We may have some precipitation in the region
Friday Night – A good chance for thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
Weekend: A series of disturbances will move into the region over the weekend into early next week. This may spark some showers and thunderstorms. Good chance for showers and thunderstorms late Friday into Friday night. Again on Sunday afternoon and night. Watching Saturday…some disagreement on precipitation timing.
Chances on Sunday will likely be in the 30%-40% range (Sunday and Sunday night).
Chances on Monday will likely be in the 40%-60% range.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A nice Wednesday on tap for the region. Patchy fog possible in the morning.
2. Thursday will bring an increase in clouds perhaps as a disturbance attempts to move into the region (some questions on Thursday’s forecast). We will have to see if it sparks some precipitation or not.
3. A series of disturbances will push through the region Friday through next week
Well, the clouds seem to love us in this type of pattern. If it were not for the clouds then this would have been a down right beautiful day for early June. But, the clouds do make it a bit gloomy. They are hard to shake with this type of upper air pattern.
Wednesday will bring another day of below normal temperatures…although a bit warmer than Tuesday. Highs will mostly be in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s. The sun should actually come out on Wednesday. A collective “let’s hope” is in order.
By Thursday I am watching a disturbance moving in from the northwest. There is significant disagreement among the models about the track and intensity of this disturbance. The NAM model wants to bring it into our northwest counties during the day on Thursday and spark a few showers and thunderstorms. Other models disagree. I will continue to monitor it and update accordingly. Let’s leave it as a small chance for now.
By Friday a stronger disturbance moves into the region with a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will likely develop as early as Friday afternoon. Locally heavy rain can’t be ruled out with any thunderstorms that develop. It is that time of the year.
Temperatures will slowly warm up with each passing day. We will be well into the 80’s by the weekend.
See the extended discussion below for more details on the weekend.
Wednesday high temperature forecast
Thursday high temperature forecast
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. The weekend approaches and we will have a few showers and thunderstorms
2. A bit unsettled next week? Concerns about locally heavy rain from time to time.
3. Summer long range forecast (re-posted from yesterday’s update)
I am watching a series of disturbances that will move through the region late this weekend into the weekend. As a matter of fact, the disturbances will continue to move through the area into next week.
A couple of cold front may approach the region over the weekend and next week. Each will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Model data has a hard time timing these disturbances. Right now the best chances for precipitation might end up late on Friday and Friday night and then again Sunday afternoon and night. That leaves Saturday as a bit of a question mark. And there is low confidence on Sunday.
A cold front may stall out in the region early next week. If that happens then several rounds of heavy thunderstorms can be expected. It is that time of the year. Thunderstorms can produce very heavy downpours in a short amount of time. You do not want a front to stall over your area this time of the year. Someone will end up with a lot of rain if that happens.
Monitor updates as we move forward. Whether the front stalls out will determine how next Monday through Wednesday goes.
Let’s look at how the jet stream will change over the coming days. Remember that when we have a northwest wind flow aloft our weather is usually a bit cooler. In the summer it can also mean disturbances riding down from the northwest (that can also mean thunderstorms)
Our flow today is from the north. Here is the 200mb jet stream map. I drew some red arrows to show you where our air is coming from. It is coming from the north. The bright colors represent different wind speeds. Images are from accuweather.com
Also note the jet stream energy crashing into California. That is important for our weather down the road.
Now compare the jet stream map above to the one on Friday afternoon. Notice a difference? What direction is our wind coming from now? Mostly the west/southwest. That indicates a moist flow. Changes.
The southwest trough (see the downward dip in the west…that is a trough) will start to push eastward. This will bring unsettled weather to our region. Disturbances will ride in from the west and northwest. Each disturbance will trigger a round of showers and thunderstorms. Timing the disturbances will be a bit tricky (similar to the last few weeks). Models tend to not handle these type of events very well. A bit of a headache for forecasters.
It does not take much to trigger thunderstorms during the Month of June.
Long Range Outlook
I posted this yesterday and will keep it up for the rest of the week.
Typically during June-August we have a more humid air mass over our region. That normally means a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Any disturbance that moves through these types of air masses can trigger a significant round of precipitation. We call these Mesoscale Convective Complex. Complexes of storms that form during the overnight periods and typically die out during the morning hours. Then a few storms flare back up in the heat of the day as the complex leaves boundaries.
This is something I will start watching for over the coming weeks and months.
My summer forecast is for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Summer for meteorologists runs from June 1st through the end of August. It will be awhile before we can judge the forecast.
Of course we will have plenty of warm and even hot days. Below normal temperatures in our region during the summer months does not equal a cool summer. But, I do believe we see frequent cold fronts that will help the cause (for those who hate hot weather).
Utilizing Gary Lezak’s long range cycle, July looks to be the coolest of the 3 month period with a couple of hotter waves of air in August. Frequent cold fronts will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next 3 months. Some of these heavy storms will move in from the northwest. Sweeping southeast they could occasionally produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours.
Keep in mind that long range forecasting has a much smaller chance of being correct. But, I know some of you like to play the “long range” forecasting game.
First two weeks of June should bring mostly below normal temperatures. There will be several days with above normal temperatures, but when averaged out the first two weeks should be below normal. As we push past that time there will be a period of warmer than normal weather.
The week of June 14th should see two cold fronts move through the region. Each will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms. There is the risk that one front hangs up in the area.
Week of June 21st will bring several chances for thunderstorms
The week of June 28th should bring good weather for the Fourth of July holiday period with below normal temperatures and lower than normal dew points and humidity.
Most of July will bring frequent rounds of below normal temperatures with several shots at thunderstorms. A series of cold fronts the second half of the month could bring heavier precipitation. Risk for a few of the thunderstorm rounds to produce high winds…especially if they coming in from the northwest.
The weeks of August 9th and 16th will bring hot weather to the region and humid. Scattered pop-up thunderstorms.
We will see how the summer forecast goes. As always the long range is a bit of skill and a bit of guess work based on past patterns.
Let’s look at the current temperature forecast for the upcoming weekend.
Friday temperatures
Saturday temperatures (dependent on cloud cover or lack of)
Sunday’s high temperature map. If we have more clouds on Sunday then temperatures will be several degrees cooler.
No major concerns!
Wednesday should be a nice day…weatherwise.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast –
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO. Believe the risk for a thunderstorm on Wednesday is very low. Perhaps chances will rise on Thursday into the weekend.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
