June 29/30, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance Thursday through Monday. Perhaps Tuesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Storms this time of the year could produce strong wind gusts and even hail. Monitor updates.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low-risk. There could be brief water issues where thunderstorms occur. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Monitor. Perhaps Friday, but we may fall just short of 100 degree heat index values.

5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

June 29, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Winds will be from the: East northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 62° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Light east wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:45 AM
Moonset: 9:14 PM
The phase of the moon: New

June 30, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot. More humid. A slight chance of thunderstorms (mainly along the MO/AR and KY/TN state line).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: During the PM hours
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance of wet roadways and lightning near the MO/AR and KY/TN border
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm near the MO/AR and KY/TN border during the evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Evening
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:40 AM
Moonset: 9:56 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

July 1, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot. More humid. A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Most likely after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 93° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 93° to 96° / South IL 93° to 96° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96° / West KY 93° to 96° / NW TN 93° to 96°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. A chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 7:38 AM
Moonset: 10:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

July 2, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A good chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and have a plan B.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time (but more likely before 10 PM)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and have a plan B.
Moonrise: 8:39 AM
Moonset: 11:05 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

July 3, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Most likely after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and have a plan B.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Light southeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 9:39 AM
Moonset: 11:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

July 4, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of an evening thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 11 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check the radars.
Moonrise: 10:41 AM
Moonset: 11:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

July 5, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time (but mainly during the afternoon)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 94° / SE MO 92° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 94° / South IL 92° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 94° / West KY 92° to 94° / NW TN 92° to 942°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° / SE MO 73° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 73° to 76° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 73° to 76° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated evening wet roadway and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:44 PM
Moonset: 12:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

July 6, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98° / SE MO 94° to 98° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 94° to 98° / South IL 94° to 98° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 98° / West KY 94° to 98° / NW TN 94° to 98°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Hot and muggy.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° / SE MO 73° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 73° to 76° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 73° to 76° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:41 AM
Moonset: : PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

July 7, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98° / SE MO 94° to 98° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 94° to 98° / South IL 94° to 98° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 98° / West KY 94° to 98° / NW TN 94° to 98°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Hot and muggy. Isolated wet roadway and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° / SE MO 73° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 73° to 76° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 73° to 76° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:48 PM
Moonset: 12:49 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

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Today through July 10th: Monitor updates. Storms this time of the year can produce strong wind gusts and even hail. Overall, the risk of organized severe weather is low.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.

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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Warming trend today into next week.
2. Unsettled weather over the weekend with at least scattered thunderstorm chances.
3. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Forecast Discussion

Wednesday is delivering another nice day for the region. High pressure is in control. One last day before things begin to become muggier and thunderstorm chances return.

Thursday will be warmer and more humid. Gulf of Mexico air will begin to filter back into the region. This additional moisture will help aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms as early as Thursday afternoon. A few spots could pick up a storm.

The chances will be highest along the MO/AR and KY/TN border. Many areas will simply remain dry.

A cold front will push into the region from the north Friday and linger into the weekend.

This cold front will become the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday into at least Monday and perhaps Tuesday.

There will be peak chances. That would be Saturday and Sunday.

It is summer and there is no shortage of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into. That means that where thunderstorms occur they could produce torrential brief downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning. 50 mph wind gusts, and even small hail.

Summer thunderstorms can produce downburst winds of 50 mph or greater. Keep that in mind.

Just keep that in mind if you are camping or have holiday outdoor activities.

This doesn’t look like an all day washout or anything like that.

I will need to monitor for an MCS. If an MCS (thunderstorm cluster) forms, then the rain would last a bit longer. Last Sunday we had an MCS move through the region and it rained (in some areas) for several hours.

That would be the only concern. An MCS.

Otherwise, a fairly typical summer pattern for our region. Scattered thunderstorms with peak chances likely occurring during the heat of the day (12 PM through 7 PM).

Another heat wave is possible next week. Hot and muggy weather is likely from Fourth of July into much of next week.

I would not cancel any outdoor plans. Just check the Beau Dodson Weather radars from time to time.

Here is the official WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast through next Wednesday morning. Keep in mind, totals will vary GREATLY. Summer thunderstorms can produce an inch of rain in less than thirty-minutes.

This graphic is broad-brushed and won’t capture individual thunderstorms.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

Double click on image to enlarge it

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers June 22ndthrough June 28th

Click on the image to expand it.

This outlook covers June 29th through July 5th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers July 6th through July 12th

Click on the image to expand it

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers July 8th through July 21st
.
.
.

Precipitation outlook

Monthly Outlooks

SUMMER OUTLOOK

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

June Temperature Outlook

June Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

July Temperature Outlook

July Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

August Temperature Outlook

August Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

September Temperature Outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

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Weather Prediction Center. Click here.