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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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June 28, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Warmer. Perhaps some clouds late at night. A bit more humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest 7 to 14 mph with gusts above 18 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 29, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. I can’t rule out a scattered thunderstorms. Best chance of storms will be east of LBL. More humid. Dew points will rise into the 65 to 70 degree range. That makes it feel muggy outside. Warmer. Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated lightning. Isolated wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% (mostly east of LBL) TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered east of LBL
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but perhaps check afternoon radars.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. Mild. Humid. A chance for a thunderstorm over the northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. Lesser chances elsewhere. More humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts likely.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated lighting and wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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June 30, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Warm. Humid. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Especially during the afternoon and eveing hours. A few storms could produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Cloud to ground lightning. Temperatures will be dependent on how much cloud cover there is.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Warmer. A chance for showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Then, showers and thunderstorms likely as we push later into the night. A few storms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early and then becoming numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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July 1, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. A chance for thunderstorms. Best chance may end up over southern portions of the area. That would include the southern parts of southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Humid. Warm. Clouds might help keep temperatures down a little bit. Best chances would likely be during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph. Winds becoming more and more southwest and west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. Some adjustments are possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild, but perhaps not as warm as recent nights.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: West and northwest winds at 6 to 12
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? An evening storm could produce lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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July 2, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: West and northwest winds becoming more southwestly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Mostly none. A few reports of lightning and wet roadways possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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July 3, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Rain probabilities may need adjusting.
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. If a storm does form then it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warmer. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but if a storm forms it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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July 4, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Rain probabilities may need adjusting.
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Hot and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 92 KY ~ 88 to 92 TN ~ 88 to 92
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. If a storm does form then it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warmer. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but if a storm forms it could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Wednesday night through Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday into Thursday night: I can’t completely rule out a thunderstorm, but coverage would be limited. If storms do occur they would produce heavy downpours and lightning.
Friday into Friday night: Thunderstorms are possible. There is a risk that a few storms could produce damaging winds or downburst winds. This is not uncommon during the summer months. Thunderstorms can reach 50 or 60 thousand feet into the atmosphere. What goes up must come down. Sometimes downburst winds can occur in isolated areas.
Otherwise, thunderstorms will produce heavy downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Monitor updates.
Saturday into Tuesday: Guidance is not reliable during this period. Hopefully confidence will rise with new data over the next 24 to 48 hours. We will have at least some chances for showers and thunderstorms.
I would not change any weekend plans. I would monitor updated forecasts. If thunderstorms approach, and you are camping, then take appropriate precautions. In other words, use common sense.
Warmer and muggier air will move back into the region on Thursday and it will last into the weekend. We have experienced some amazing weather over the last few days. Yes, some of you are begging for heat. You want your pools to warm up a bit. Others are enjoying the low dew points.
With the warmer air will come increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. It is a holiday weekend and we certainly don’t want rain on our parades.
I can’t rule out isolated showers or storms as early as Thursday afternoon and night. Coverage, if any at all, would be limited. Weak wind fields and weak lift.
There will be several time periods where rain may be more likely. One of those time periods would be Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Several boundaries will approach our region from Missouri. These boundaries could spark showers and thunderstorms.
If you have outdoor plans this weekend, then check radars and the latest forecasts. If thunderstorms form then they will have plenty of moisture to work with. That means locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. I can’t rule out a few reports of high winds.
Saturday and Sunday are questionable when it comes to rain probabilities. I would recommend you monitor updates. I would not be surprised if forecast adjustments are made.
Monday and Tuesday may remain unsettled, as well. Guidance is all over the place with boundaries, a stalled weak cold front, and MCS’s. MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes that are common during the summer months. They can mess up a perfectly good forecast.
Monitor updates moving forward.
Let’s look at some graphics.
Here are the daily high temperatures Thursday through Tuesday
Where you see lower temperatures, in the middle of higher temperatures, it is because that particular model believes there could be precipitation in that area.
Thursday high temperatures
Click images for a larger view
Friday high temperatures
Saturday high temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
Monday high temperatures
Tuesday high tempeatures
You can see from these graphics that dew points will move back into the muggy stage
Click images to enlarge
Thursday dew points
Friday dew points
Sunday
Perhaps a bit lower dew points if the front moves through our region or washes out in the region.
Monday dew points
Tuesday dew points
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
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WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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