June 28, 2024: Monitoring thunderstorm chances.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. A chance of lightning Friday night into Saturday evening. A small chance Sunday. Another chance Tuesday night and Wednesday. I am monitoring Thursday and Friday for additional storms.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. A few of the thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday evening could be intense with high wind and hail. I will monitor next Tuesday night and Wednesday. I am monitoring Thursday and Friday for additional storms.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. Locally heavy rain is possible with any thunderstorms that form.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values Saturday will range from 98 to 106 degrees. Locally higher. Wednesday may bring another day with heat index values above 100 degrees.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Friday through Friday night: 4. Low risk.
Saturday: 5. Medium risk.
Saturday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

High mixing height and southerly transport winds will lead to good dispersion today and Saturday. Humidity values will also be on the increase through the weekend along with storm chances on Saturday as a front approaches from the north. A few locations may see a wetting rain where the strongest storms occur, especially Saturday evening into Saturday night.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 86° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 86° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. High.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight (mainly north but we will need to monitor it)
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 12:29 AM
Moonset: 12:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of thunderstorms. There remain questions about the placement and coverage of thunderstorms on Saturday. Monitor the radars.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 95°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 95°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 95°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 95°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 95°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 95°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 95°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 95°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 95°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 95°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40% to 50%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40% to 50%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40% to 50%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40% to 50%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40% to 50%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40% to 50%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 12:55 AM
Moonset: 2:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of a few remaining thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before noon.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 83° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:22 AM
Moonset: 3:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:52 AM
Moonset: 4:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:27 AM
Moonset: 5:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Heat returns today into the weekend. Hottest day will be Saturday, if we avoid cloud cover.
2. Monitoring thunderstorm chances late tonight into Sunday.
3. Another chance of storms towards Tuesday night into Thursday.
4. We bound back and forth between extreme heat and muggy weather and somewhat nicer weather.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Happy weekend, everyone. We have a mixed bag of weather ahead of us. It appears we are going to bounce back and forth between the heat ridge and somewhat nicer weather. This could continue for a while.

If we can keep the heat dome from settling in, then we will at least have some nicer days to mow and perform outdoor activities.

First, today will be hot and humid. Yesterday was nice. Today won’t be as nice.

Today, dew points will rise into the 70s. Dew point is what makes it feel muggy and humid. Dew points in the 70s are quite uncomfortable.

It will be dry today into early tonight. No significant weather concerns other than the heat and humidity.

A cold front will push towards the region tonight into the weekend. This will be a slow moving front with several chances of showers and thunderstorms.

We could have a few thunderstorms tonight, but confidence in placement and coverage is low. An MCS is forecast to form over Kansas and Missouri and move east southeast.

MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes. They bring most of our summer rainfall.

By Saturday morning, some of those thunderstorms could push into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. MCS’s are not known for being predictable. Often times, we don’t know the track and intensity until the last 12 to 18 hours.

Some of the thunderstorms will be intense with strong and gusty wind, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. If you are out camping, then monitor the weather radars. See those at the bottom of the page.

Saturday and Sunday will deliver hot weather. Muggy. Peak heat will be Saturday, but we will need to monitor cloud cover. If we have thicker clouds, then temperatures will be a bit lower. Either way, it will be muggy.

We will need to monitor a large thunderstorm cluster that is forecast to develop over Missouri late Friday night. As mentioned above, it could move into portions of our region.

If that system does not deliver clouds and precipitation, then we will need to monitor Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Another round of thunderstorms (MCS) will likely develop over Missouri and Illinois. Then, it would move south southeast into the rest of the region. See the future-cast radars below.

Some of those thunderstorms could be intense with strong wind gusts, heavy rain, and lightning. Small hail, as well.

The atmosphere will be loaded with moisture. That will mean heavy rain in some communities. This could lead to flooded roadways. Some areas could pick up one to two inches of rain in less than twenty minute. Gully washers.

Monday and Tuesday will likely be dry.

Another cold front moves into the region Tuesday night into Thursday with additional heavy thunderstorm chances. We will need to monitor the threat for MCS’s. Potentially severe weather. Stay tuned.

If you remember, last summer we had 10 to 20+ inches of rain in July from a series of MCS’s. August brought additional ones.

We will have to closely monitor the weather pattern over the coming weeks. We will be swinging between the heat ridge (dry) and MCS’s (floods). The placement of the heat dome/the heat ridge will determine where the MCS’s move.

You can see on this map how some areas have received too much rain. Some too little. This is because of the heat ridge over the past thirty days.

The green is where areas have received the most rainfall since 1893 (during the first 26 days of June). The brown zone is where it has been the driest since 1893.

MCS’s can bring damaging wind, as well.

Microburst winds can also occur with summer thunderstorms. Microbursts occur when thunderstorms collapse. All that air pushes downward and outward. This can cause damage to trees and power lines.

A microburst is a localized column of sinking air (downdraft) within a thunderstorm and is usually less than or equal to 2.5 miles in diameter. Microbursts can cause extensive damage at the surface, and in some instances, can be life-threatening.

For week’s three and four. This has been updated. A slight shift southwest was made for the heat ridge. That places us very close to the ring of fire. Where thunderstorms occur on the edge of the heat ridge.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.