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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
An excessive heat advisory has been issued for most of the region. Portions of the region are in an excessive heat warning.
It’s going to be hot. That is the bottom line. Especially, Thursday into Friday. Perhaps Saturday.
Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and any thunderstorm activity, keep that in mind.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible into next week. The highest chances of lightning will be Saturday and Sunday. With that said, thunderstorm complexes could develop on any given day through early next week. Monitor updates if you have outdoor plans.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Some storms could be intense this week/weekend.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Slow moving heavy thunderstorms could briefly cause some ponding of water on roadways and in ditches.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values will rise above 100 degrees Thursday and Friday. Perhaps Saturday.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Wednesday, June 28, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Especially over southeast Missouri during the morning hours. Temperatures may vary based on cloud cover.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly over MO)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time (but mostly before noon).
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of late night thunderstorms over mainly southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly over IL/KY).
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 3:28 PM
Moonset: 1:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday, June 29, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Hot. Mostly sunny over the western half of the region. We may have a complex of storms track through central Illinois into Indiana. That could bring clouds to portions of southern Illinois and western Kentucky. If we do have more clouds, then shave a few degrees off the thermometer. If the complex of storms tracks farther southwest, then I will need to adjust the forecast and increase rain chances.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly IL/KY).
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100° to 104°
Southeast Missouri ~ 100° to 104°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100° to 104°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 98° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 100° to 104°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100° to 104°
Far western Kentucky ~ 98° to 102°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 98° to 102°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100° to 102°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 105° to 115° locally higher
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Warm. Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Mainly over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 4:36 PM
Moonset: 2:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Friday, June 30, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Hot. Mostly sunny over much of the region. Partly cloudy over Illinois and Kentucky. We will once again need to monitor for any thunderstorm complexes that could dive south southeast out of Illinois and Indiana.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly IL/KY).
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 103° to 106°
Southeast Missouri ~ 102° to 104°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100° to 104°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 98° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 100° to 104°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100° to 104°
Far western Kentucky ~ 98° to 102°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 98° to 102°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100° to 102°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 105° to 115° locally higher
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:21 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Warm. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 5:47 PM
Moonset: 2:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Intense heat wave.
- Monitoring thunderstorm chances.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days! Review summer heat safety rules.
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Forecast Discussion
Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers
Tracking the Heat.
A complex of thunderstorms (also called an MCS) tracked across Kansas and Oklahoma last night. It moved into Missouri and Arkansas earlier this morning.
It was forecast to weaken as it moved into our region.
You can see the IR satellite last night showing the MCS.
By this morning, it looked like this
6:30 AM radar looked like this. Not much left, but a few showers for southeast Missouri. Not nearly enough to bust the drought. But, we will take whatever we can get.
You can also see smoke on this morning’s satellite
Today will be warm. There will be some remaining clouds from the thunderstorm complex over southeast Missouri.
Elsewhere, smoke and haze will cause poor air quality of portions of the region.
I am in Chicago visiting friends. This is what the smoke looked like yesterday. It was awful.
This smoke is from the Canadian wild-fires. Climate change enhanced events.
You can literally smell wood burning from Canada. In Chicago! Just crazy.
I expect most of today to be dry across the region. With the exception of the showers in southeast Missouri (this morning).
The next MCS that I will be watching will dive southward through Illinois and Indiana tonight and tomorrow.
How far west this track remains questionable.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of Illinois and Kentucky in a low-level marginal (level one) risk of severe thunderstorms late tonight into early tomorrow morning.
The dark green is the level one severe weather risk. The lowest risk they have. Light green represents sub-severe thunderstorms.
It is possible that this system remain just outside my forecast area. I will need to monitor it.
I can show you some different model solutions.
MCS’s are extremely difficult to forecast. They are like a wild monkey let loose in a house full of bananas. Even within the 24-hour time-frame, they can be hard to predict.
The Hrrr model currently takes the complex of thunderstorms across mostly Indiana into northern Kentucky. This would move out of central and northern Illinois. Dive south southeast. Clip our region. This future-cast radar is for 9 AM tomorrow morning.
The RRFS model holds the system back. This is the future-cast radar for 7 AM tomorrow morning. The storms are still way north of our region.
The FV3 model drops the system into mostly Indiana. Perhaps clipping some of my northwest Kentucky counties.
The NAM 3K model takes the system right over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. It’s solution is farther west than most data.
Again, this is for tomorrow morning.
I will just need to monitor trends tonight.
I capped rain chances on the lower end of the probability scale. Those may need adjusting if confidence in the final outcome of this complex increases.
Some of the storms could produce damaging wind, hail, frequent lightning, and torrential rain.
Don’t get your hopes up.
The pattern is very active and will remain active through the weekend.
Additional MCS’s are likely Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Perhaps into next week, as well.
Hopefully, we can manage to get some rain across our region with this active pattern.
Thunderstorms could be severe over the coming days. Monitor updated forecast.
The next big weather story will be the heat.
Actual air temperatures will rise above 100 degrees, over most of the region, tomorrow and Friday. This will be highly dependent on cloud cover and any ongoing thunderstorms.
Obviously, areas with clouds and thunderstorms will not be nearly as hot as other areas that remain dry. Areas with clouds and precipitation will likely remain in the 90s.
Elsewhere, expect temperatures to rise above 100 degrees. Heat index values will range from 105 to 115 degrees. Locally higher.
Overnight lows will remain well into the 70s.
This can be a dangerous setup for the young and elderly. It can make for dangerous work conditions for those who have to work outside, as well.
Use caution, as always. Know the symptoms for heat related illnesses.
Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances will ramp up Friday night into the weekend. It is during this time-frame that odds favor the highest probability for precipitation. Much needed precipitation.
Rain totals will have a large range. Same as recent events. Some areas will receive no rain. Some areas will pick up a couple of inches of rain.
If you have outdoor events, then monitor updated forecasts through the weekend into early next week.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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