Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

June 27, 2024: Cooler today and tonight. Heat returns tomorrow. Watching storm chances.

 

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.   A chance of lightning Friday night into Saturday evening.  A small chance Sunday.  Another chance Tuesday night and Wednesday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  MONITOR.   A few of the thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday evening could be intense with high wind and hail.   I will monitor next Tuesday night and Wednesday.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR.  Locally  heavy rain is possible with any thunderstorms that form.  

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees?  YES.  Heat index values Saturday will range from 98 to 106 degrees. Locally higher. Wednesday may bring another day with heat index values above 100 degrees.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees?  NOT AT THIS TIME.

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  NO.

9.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  NO.

10.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.  
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines  Freezing fog possible, as well.

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Fire weather risk level.

Thursday through Thursday night: 5.  Medium risk.
Friday: 5. Medium risk.
Friday night: 5. Medium risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

High pressure building into the region will provide dry weather through Friday. Our next chance of rain arrives with a cold front Saturday into Saturday night. Northeasterly winds on Thursday will switch around to southerly on Friday and southwesterly on Saturday allowing humidity values to steadily increase into the weekend. Dispersion will be fair most days but looks to be best on Saturday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

 

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.



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Thursday Forecast:  Some morning clouds.  Becoming mostly sunny. Not as hot and not as humid.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  0%
Southern Illinois ~  0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 85° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°

Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 85° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 85° to 90°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 85° to 90°

Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  10.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~   0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~  0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  0%
Southern Illinois ~  0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°

Winds will be from this direction: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:02 AM
Moonset: 11:40AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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Friday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Hot and humid. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  20%
Southern Illinois ~  10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 90°

Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 86° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 90°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 86° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 90°

Winds will be from this direction:  Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  8. High.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~   20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~  10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:  After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°

Winds will be from this direction: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 12:29 AM
Moonset: 12:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

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Saturday  Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  60%
Southern Illinois ~  30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 95°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 95°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 95°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 95°

Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 95°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 95°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 95°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 95°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 95°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 95°

Winds will be from this direction:  Southeast at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~   40% to 50%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40% to 50%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40% to 50%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40% to 50%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40% to 50%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40% to 50%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~  40% to 50%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°

Winds will be from this direction: Southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 12:55 AM
Moonset: 2:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of a few remaining thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  10%
Southern Illinois ~  20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  30%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before noon.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~  83° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°

Southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 83° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°

Winds will be from this direction:  North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°

Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:22 AM
Moonset: 3:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  0%
Southern Illinois ~  0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~  83° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°

Southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 83° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°

Winds will be from this direction:  Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 75°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 75°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 75°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 75°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 75°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 75°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 75°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 75°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 75°

Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:52 AM
Moonset: 4:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  0%
Southern Illinois ~  0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 95°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 95°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 95°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 95°

Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 95°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 95°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 95°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 95°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 95°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 95°

Winds will be from this direction:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  10%

Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°

Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:27 AM
Moonset: 5:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

    1.    Cooler and less humid today and tonight.
    2.    Heat returns tomorrow into Saturday.  Muggy again, as well.
    3.   Watching another cold front Friday night into Saturday.   A few storms will again be possible.  Locally heavy.

 

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Today will be calmer than yesterday’s weather.  Thunderstorms rolled through much of the region.  Some locations reported wind damage and flash flooding.

That system is pulling away from our region.  That leaves us with some morning clouds.  We do expect the clouds to clear and sunshine to be the general rule today.

It will feel nicer outside.  Less muggy today.  Cooler.  Highs will be in the 80s.  Dew points will drop into the 60s.  Much better than 90s for temperatures and dew points in the 70s.

It won’t last.

The heat returns tomorrow and Saturday with widespread 90s.  Heat index values will pop back into the upper 90s to lower 100s.  It will feel muggy outside.

Dew points will return to the 70s tomorrow and Saturday.

A cold front will push into the region Saturday and Saturday night.

I can’t completely rule out a thunderstorm Friday night over our far northern counties, but it appears more likely that the storms will hold off until Saturday afternoon and night.

There will be no shortage of heat energy for thunderstorms to tap into.  Some of the storms could produce damaging wind, very heavy rain, frequent lightning, and small hail.  There is a level one severe weather risk Saturday afternoon and night.

That system should pull away Sunday.  Perhaps a lingering shower or thunderstorm, but the bulk of the rain will be over.

Sunday will be slightly cooler and less humid.

The heat then returns by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Another cold front will push into the region Wednesday.  This will bring increasing thunderstorm chances late Tuesday night into Wednesday night.  Some of the storms could be severe.  Monitor updates.

It will turn slightly cooler Thursday.  The heat then returns by Friday and Saturday of next week.

It is MCS season.  We talk about this every year.  Most of our summer rainfall comes from MCS’s.  We had a couple of MCS’s move through the region yesterday.  Rainfall totals ranged from less than 0.50″ to over 8.00″!  A very wide range.  MCS’s can drop copious amounts of rain.

Here were some screenshots I took of yesterday’s heavy rain event.

Butler County, Missouri

Southeast Missouri west of Bollinger County.

Murray/Calloway County

If you remember, last summer we had 10 to 20+ inches of rain in July from a series of MCS’s.  August brought additional ones.

We will have to closely monitor the weather pattern over the coming weeks.  We will be swinging between the heat ridge (dry) and MCS’s (floods).  The placement of the heat dome/the heat ridge will determine where the MCS’s move.

You can see on this map how some areas have received too much rain.  Some too little.  This is because of the heat ridge over the past thirty days.

The green is where areas have received the most rainfall since 1893 (during the first 26 days of June).  The brown zone is where it has been the driest since 1893.

MCS’s can bring damaging wind, as well.

Microburst winds can also occur with summer thunderstorms.  Microbursts occur when thunderstorms collapse.  All that air pushes downward and outward.  This can cause damage to trees and power lines.

A microburst is a localized column of sinking air (downdraft) within a thunderstorm and is usually less than or equal to 2.5 miles in diameter. Microbursts can cause extensive damage at the surface, and in some instances, can be life-threatening. 

For week’s three and four. This has been updated.  A slight shift southwest was made for the heat ridge.  That places us very close to the ring of fire.  Where thunderstorms occur on the edge of the heat ridge.

 

 


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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

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This  animation is the NAM Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

 

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This  animation is the FV3 Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the HRRR Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the NAM 3K Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

2016-11-19_11-50-24

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