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Wednesday: Scattered storms. A few storms could become severe with high wind and hail. Lightning, of course.
Thursday: Widely scattered storms. Lightning is the main concern. Heavy downpours.
Friday: No concerns for most. Isolated thunderstorms. Lightning.
Saturday: No concerns for most. Isolated thunderstorms. Lightning. Heat index above 100.
Sunday: No concerns for most. Isolated thunderstorms. Lightning. Heat index above 100.
Monday: No concerns for most. Isolated thunderstorms. Lightning. Heat index above 100.

The main concern will be some thunderstorms. A bit more coverage today and Thursday.
River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.

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Wednesday through Friday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible all three days. The greatest coverage/chance will be today and tonight. Becoming widely scattered to isolated Thursday and Friday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor today and tonight. I am monitoring today and tonight’s thunderstorm chances. A few storms could produce quarter size hail and strong wind gusts. Severe storms are possible.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Flash flooding is possible. I am concerned about storms this afternoon into Thursday AM. Some of the guidance suggests pockets of excessive rainfall. I am watching late tonight for the potential of new thunderstorm development that could cause flash flooding over extreme southern IL, southeast MO, and perhaps far western KY.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? It may approach it Friday.

Saturday through Tuesday

Is lightning in the forecast? No, for most. Yes for a couple of spots. Isolated lightning risk. Heat of the day storms, mainly.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No. Storms during the heat of the day could be intense. Organized severe weather appears unlikely. Occasionally, summer thunderstorms can produce isolated downburst winds.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Yes. 96 to 104 is likely.

Click here

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County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

Small adjustments upward in rain chances over the next 48 hours.

I did increase the wording for a few strong thunderstorms today.

What changes might occur in the forecast?

At this time, the only real concern is rain coverage today into Thursday. For now, the rain probabilities look on track.

June 26, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny this morning. Increasing clouds this afternoon. Quite warm and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms developing. The greatest coverage will be after 3 PM. The greatest coverage will be across southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, northwest Tennessee, and far western Kentucky. A couple of thunderstorms could be on the strong side with gusty winds and hail.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 80% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: MAINLY PM HOURS —> Widely scattered as you move further northeast in the way. More numerous as you travel southwest into the region.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered lightning and wet roads. A few storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars (esp this afternoon). A few storms are expected to develop.
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. Muggy. Scattered thunderstorms before 11 PM. New thunderstorms forming late. Heavy rain possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 40% north to 60% south Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 60% far western and then 30% to 40% as you move towards IN.KY border. NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous early in the evening (esp southwest part of the region). Lesser coverage as you travel north and northeast towards the IL/IN border and KY/IN border.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Visibility will be lower in areas with fog. Scattered lightning and wet roads. A few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars. Esp this evening. Some storms are likely to dot the radar. I am concerned about storms this afternoon into Thursday AM. Some of the guidance suggests pockets of excessive rainfall. I am watching late tonight for the potential of new thunderstorm development that could cause flash flooding over extreme southern IL, southeast MO, and perhaps far western KY.
Sunset: 8:20 PM
Moonrise: 1:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 2:09 PM

June 27, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Partly cloudy. Quite warm and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms. Heavy rain will be a concern where storms occur. Flash flooding is likely where thunderstorms train over the same area. Avoid flood waters.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 86° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° West KY 86° to 90° NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 100% Southeast MO 50% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 50% NW TN 100%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roads. Locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars. Some areas will receive heavy rain.
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Scattered thunderstorms again possible. Some with heavy rain. Warm and muggy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 3 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% to 50% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Visibility will be lower in areas with fog. Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars. Some areas will receive heavy rain.
Sunset: 8:20 PM
Moonrise: 2:05 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 3:09 PM

June 28, 2019.
Friday’s Forecast: Partly cloudy. Quite warm and muggy. An isolated thunderstorm is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Small chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated lightning and isolated wet roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Muggy. Patchy dense fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Small chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Visibility will be lower in areas with fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:20 PM
Moonrise: 2:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 4:09 PM

Saturday: Medium confidence. Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. 20% to <20% day and night.   High ranging from 88 to 94 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 74-degree range. Southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.
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Sunday: Medium confidence. Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. 20% to <20% day and night.   High ranging from 88 to 94 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 74-degree range. Southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.m
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Monday: Medium confidence. Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. 20% to <20% day and night.   High ranging from 88 to 94 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 74-degree range. Southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.m

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Click to enlarge

Wind forecast

Click the graphics to expand them.

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Kentucky

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Tennessee

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday: Thunderstorms are likely to form this afternoon and evening A few storms could produce high wind, hail, and frequent lightning.

Thursday through Monday: A few scattered thunderstorms are possible. Most areas will remain on the dry side. If a thunderstorm does form then it could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Lightning, of course, is always a concern.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number. Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado. One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk. Light green is not assigned a number.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.

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A few thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.
Hot and humid weather developing for the short-term.

Current conditions.

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Weather
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Advice:

Monitor radars and the latest weather information later this afternoon and evening. A few intense storms are possible.

There is a chance of flash flooding late tonight as another round of storms may form.

I am concerned about storms this afternoon into Thursday AM. Some of the guidance suggests pockets of excessive rainfall. I am watching late tonight for the potential of new thunderstorm development that could cause flash flooding over extreme southern IL, southeast MO, and perhaps far western KY.

Check radars if you have outdoor events or are camping. Although, I do not expect very many issues Friday through Sunday.

Hot and muggy weather returns. Heat index values will approach or move above 100 degrees Friday through Monday. Peak heating will be from 2 PM to 6 PM.

Weather:

Want to see all of the app messages and other updates posted on Sunday?

Remember, you only receive the messages for the counties you have selected.

You would not receive all of these.

That is one reason I started the live blog. That way you can see everything I send out without having to have your phones dinging all of the time.

Here they are

https://wtalk.co/EFZW35J9

This week:

What a difference one week makes.

The last few weeks have been busy with heavy rain, flash flooding, tornadoes, damaging wind, hail, and lightning. This week has been the opposite.

Today, we have an upper-level disturbance approaching our region from the north and west.

This disturbance will help produce scattered thunderstorms. The greatest coverage will be after 3 PM today. Some of the storms could be on the strong side. Some storms may become severe later this afternoon. Damaging wind is the main concern. Hail is a secondary concern. The tornado risk is low.

Slow moving storms can produce heavy rain totals. Lightning is a concern for outdoor activities. One person died over the weekend from a lightning strike. Be careful when outdoors during a thunderstorm. Lightning can strike as much as ten miles away from a storm.

The thunderstorms will wane/diminish as we move through the late evening hours. Patchy fog may form. Warm and humid conditions.

Thursday through Monday will be hot and humid. Temperatures will slowly climb to and above 90 degrees. The hottest days will be Saturday through Monday with temperatures above 90 and heat index values about 100 degrees. Use care. Summer air.

Rain chances Thursday through Monday should remain at or below 20%.

Patchy fog will be possible during the overnight hours. Wind conditions should be light.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamp upper left.

Click the animation to expand it.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models are rarely exactly right on their display of future-cast radars.

The NAM 3K model

I will be monitoring today’s thunderstorm chances. Models are not in total agreement on the placement of the rain.

The Hrrr model

The SPC WRF model

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

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These are bonus videos for subscribers.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

The Ohio Valley video does capture our region.

Ohio Valley video

This video is a bit more meteorologically technical. An in-depth discussion about the coming weeks.

Long Range Video.

The Missouri Valley

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters. These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

Key Points:

Rainfall over the past 24 hours was focused primarily across the north-central Plains from SD to NE, IA, KS, and western IL seeing scattered 0.5-1.5” totals…a few areas in southern Iowa saw 1.0-2.0”+.
The rest of this week into the weekend is still in a favored pattern for more storm clusters (MCS) vs low-pressure systems especially focused across the north-central/northern Plains to the upper-Midwest and Great Lakes regions.
Areas across the southern half of the Plains and Ohio Valley pose a risk into the mid-next week to run widespread below normal in rainfall as a ridge of high pressure flexes for a time.
Growing degree days over the next week will remain above normal across the entire Grain Belt in the central US.
Both the GEFS and EPS models agree with more widespread above normal precipitation risks into the week 2 timeframe as the ridge of high pressure starts to weaken and allow more “northwest flow” moisture risks into the heart of the Grain Belt…also we start to work our targeted storm dates and troughs more into the central US running into the SE ridge…creating a nice “battlezone” for widespread rains.
We continue to anticipate the model data to trend cooler and wetter in the central US getting deeper into week 2 and week 3 especially as the MJO works through phases 8 into 1 and possibly 2, as we start feeling the big negative SOI trends recently and the Bering Sea Rule supporting a trough here as well…warmer risks pushed back on the Coastal regions again.

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Yellow and orange are above normal. Red is much above normal. Light blue and blue is below normal. Green to purple is much below normal.

This outlook covers June 25th through June 31st

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. Brown is below normal. Green is above normal. Blue is much above normal.

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers July 2nd through July 8th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 2.00″
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This outlook covers July 5th through July 18th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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Euro is a model.

Blue is below normal temps. Yellow/orange are above normal temps.

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June temperature outlook

June precipitation outlook

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July temperature outlook

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July precipitation outlook

August temperature outlook

August precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.

My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).

I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad. When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and WeatherTalk LLC.

There is a lot of noise on the internet. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

Communicate in simple terms
To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 699
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Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a physical scientist who works for the National Weather Service. She works with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) which is a specialized UN agency. Born and raised from Jamaica, she experienced Hurricane Gilbert at a young age and has been fascinated with weather ever since. She earned her undergraduate degree in Meteorology from Iowa State University and a Master’s degree in Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. Dr. Shanna Pitter, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Satellite frequencies
- Dallas/Fort Worth severe weather incident
- Does the general public pay attention to severe thunderstorm warnings?
- “Code Red” broadcast meteorologist controversy
- National Weather Round-Up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!