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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Saturday – A few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly during the afternoon. Cooler and less humid. Gusty winds from the north at 10-20 mph. Highs in the 80’s.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Maybe a couple of showers and thunderstorms.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Pea size hail possible
Saturday night – Clear and cool. Camping weather. Lows in the upper 50’s north and 60’s elsewhere. North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Quite a bit of sun. Some puffy fair weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon. A 10%-20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Highs only in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. Nice weather. North winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Small risk for lightning or pea size hail.
Sunday night – Increasing clouds. A chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms, late. Lows in the 60’s.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? None
Monday – A lot of clouds. A 40% chance for thunderstorms. A little warmer. Highs in the 80’s with southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Could be some storms around. Not a washout.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for a strong storm.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? A couple of storms could produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.
Monday night – Partly cloudy. A 20% chance for a thunderstorm. Lows in the 60’s with west and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might be some evening precipitation. Monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? A couple of evening storms could be strong. Severe storm risk is very low.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% in the evening.
What impact is expected? No major impacts. If a storm remains then lightning.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Just a slight chance for a thunderstorm. Less than 10% chance. Highs in the 80’s with southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 10%
What impact is expected? No major impacts.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Cooler and drier weather is on the way
2. Another chance for scattered rain on Sunday night and Monday.
3. Unsettled work week ahead
4. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
The much anticipated cold front is moving through the region. The front will bring evening showers and thunderstorms on Friday. A few of those storms will be on the strong side. Gusty winds and even a report of hail will be possible with the most intense cells.
We should see the storms come to an end by Saturday morning. During the afternoon we may see a few showers redevelop. Maybe a thunderstorm. Scattered.
Temperatures may not get out of the 70’s on Saturday. Lower 80’s in spots. Less humid.
When I said we would likely have above normal precipitation in June through August…I wasn’t kidding.
Check out these rainfall maps from the past 30 days. Incredible numbers for parts of the region. And, this is why the Mississippi River is so high.
Images are from weatherbell.com
Click to enlarge the photograph. You can see the states better that way. The bright purple colors represent 15, 16, 17, 18 inches of rain.
Zooming in a bit
Hard to make out the states on that image. But you can see Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky.
The heaviest rains were forecast to be over Missouri and Illinois during the Month of June. And, that is what has happened. Lesser amounts over parts of Kentucky.
The great news for the coming days will be the cooler temperatures and less muggy feel to the air.
You can thank our trough for that. A trough is a dip in the jet stream. When the jet stream dips into our region from the northwest, then we experience cooler weather. Of course “cooler” is a relative term in July. Northwest flow will develop today and will last quite awhile.
MCS’s will be a concern over the coming weeks. Remember me talking about these? One MCS moved across parts of Missouri and Illinois on Thursday night. This is what one of those looks like on Satellite. A very large thunderstorm complex.
This was the Thursday night event that brought a few severe thunderstorms to southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and southern Indiana.
What is a Mesoscale Convective System? Large thunderstorm complexes that form in the late spring and summer months. Here is a great educational lesson on this topic…click here
Our next rain event arrives on Sunday night into Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of Missouri and Illinois and slide southeast. Right now the severe weather concerns appear minimal. But, as always…I will monitor.
Another chance of precipitation will arrive with a front towards Wednesday or Thursday.
We don’t need additional rainfall in the river basins. But, it is coming. Let’s hope we don’t start a heavy rain pattern in the Ohio River Basin. That could spell problems over the coming month. If that were to develop.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Cooler well into July. Cooler is a relative term in July.
2. What about multiple rounds of precipitation in the long range?
The trough, that I mentioned above, will stick around well into July. I am sure there will be some pushes of hotter air from time to time, but the overall pattern will favor a trough. How strong that trough will be will determine our temperature spread.
Overall, the next few weeks look to bring mostly normal to below normal temperatures and a bit less humidity.
A pattern like this would favor frequent occurrences of showers and thunderstorms. Some heavy rain possible in the Ohio River Basin over the coming 2 week period.
We may even have a front stall near us. That would enhance rain chances.
Fourth of July weather?
Right now it appears unsettled. The data is indicating showers and thunderstorms in the region. We still have plenty of time for changes. But, that is what the models are showing.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Friday evening storms will produce very heavy rainfall in spots. 1-3″ has already fallen. Any storms that form could produce very heavy downpours.
A couple of showers on Saturday
Sunday will be dry
Storms Sunday night and Monday could produce 0.25″-0.75″ of new rainfall.
Heavy rain possible again later next week
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO for Saturday and Sunday. A one for Sunday night and Monday.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. Maybe a rumble of thunder and pea size hail.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. Thunder possible on Sunday night.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. Thunder possible
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
No major concerns on Saturday or Sunday. Isolated storm possible.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Warnings
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
