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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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June 26, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A period of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Cool temperatures. The greatest rain coverage may end up over far southeast Missouri into southwestern Kentucky and western Tennessee. aligned northwest to southeast. Many areas may remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: W 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming variable at 0 to 5 mph late.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps some lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 60% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars. Rain is possible during the evening hours.
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June 27, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Some morning clouds possible, especially over our southern counties. Rain should have ended by 9 am. Becoming partly to mostly sunny. Pleasant temperatures for late June.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 84 IL ~ 76 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: N NE at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming variable and eventually may become south and southeast
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Rain should have ended.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should have verified.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% except Bootheel will be 40% (before 9 am) IL ~ 20% (before 8 am) KY ~ 20% (before 9 am) TN ~ 30% (before 9 am)
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Morning rain should have ended by sunrise or shortly afterwards.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars before 8 am.
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool. Perhaps some patchy fog. Nice for late June.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: South and southeast 3 to 6 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 28, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. Breezy, at times. A little more humid as dew points rise into the lower to middle 60’s.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Warmer. Perhaps some clouds late at night. A bit more humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?No
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June 29, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. More humid. Dew points will rise into the 65 to 70 degree range. That makes it feel muggy outside. Warmer. Breezy, at times. A chance for an afternoon thunderstorm. Perhaps the best chance will be over our northern counties. That would be from Farmington, Missouri into Mt Vernon, and into the Carmi, Illinois region.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated lightning. Isolated wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered. Perhaps a slightly higher chance of rain towards Farmington and Mt Vernon, Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. Mild. Humid. A chance for a thunderstorm over the northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. Lesser chances elsewhere. More humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated lighting and wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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June 30, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warmer and humid. Breezy, at times. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warmer. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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July 1, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. A chance for thunderstorms. Humid. Warm. Clouds might help keep temperatures down a little bit.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warmer. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. I may need to adjust probabilities. Still a bit early for confidence.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low to medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
I will be monitoring Sunday for rain chances, as well. Still a bit far out for confidence. Especially in this pattern.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Monday night through Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. I can’t rule out lightning on Monday night and early Tuesday morning (before 4 am).
Thursday through Sunday: Monitor updates. A few thunderstorms are certainly possible. I can’t rule out strong storms, but it is too early to know if severe weather is a concern.
I am monitoring Saturday into Monday for an uptick in thunderstorms activity. Possibly heavy rain. Monitor updates. I can’t rule out some MCS’s. Thunderstorm complexes.
Monday night into early Tuesday morning:
We have some showers and thunderstorms to deal with in the short range. This is not going to be a heavy rain event. Perhaps a few moderate bursts of rain. The best chance for measurable rainfall will likely be across the southern half of our region. That would include areas from Poplar Bluff, Missouri towards Cape Girardeau, Missouri and then towards Vienna, Illinois eastward to Madisonville, Kentucky. From that line southward, you can expect decent rain chances Monday night.
Rain totals will range from 0.00″ to 0.50″. The higher numbers would probably be over the Missouri Bootheel into southwest Kentucky and western Tennessee. Some areas will probably receive no measurable rainfall.
Lightning is possible tonight, but will likely be isolated. Severe weather is not a concern.
Tuesday into Wednesday night
The weather will be mild with highs in the lower 80’s on Tuesday and middle to upper 80’s on Wednesday. Slightly more humid on Wednesday as dew points rebound into the lower to middle 60’s. Tuesday into Wednesday night should remain dry. There could be a couple of showers before sunrise on Tuesday morning. That would most likely be our far southern counties. Most of the rain should have ended by Tuesday morning.
Thursday into Sunday:
Unsettled weather returns.
The weather will become unsettled as we push deeper into the week. Several disturbances will bring on and off rain/thunderstorm chances to the region. A few strong storms are possible. Locally heavy rain will also be possible.
At this time, it appears that a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as early as Thursday and Friday, but chances may rise by Saturday and Sunday.
PWAT values will rebound by late in the week. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere. This is what meteorologists use to monitor heavy rain potential.
What are precipitable water values (PWAT) values
Let’s look at PWAT changes over the coming days. High numbers would be 1.75 to 2.5″. Two and above is considered extreme.
Here is the Monday night PWAT map. Not too bad. Not a lot of moisture in the atmosphere.
Here is the Thursday PWAT map. Wow, a big jump. Notice the highest numerous to our north. That also lines up with the higher CAPE values. Thunderstorms possible to our north on Thursday. A few may drift into our region, especially northern counties.
Here is the Friday PWAT map. High numbers. 1.75 to over the 2″ mark. Highest numbers are near St Louis. Those are extreme PWAT values. This indicates that any storms that form would produce heavy downpours.
Here is the Saturday PWAT map. Large numbers in our region. Storms could produce heavy rain (if they form)
Here is the Sunday PWAT map. High numbers in our region. We will need to monitor the heavy rain risk.
Dew points will also be on the rise. What does that mean? It means it will start to become increasingly more uncomfortable outside.
Here is your dew point meter
What are dew points
Check out the increase as we move into late week.
Here is the Tuesday afternoon dew point map. Not too bad!
But look what happens by Friday. Muggy weather returns.
Higher dew points will mean higher CAPE values. Higher CAPE values will mean a few strong storms later this week into the weekend.
What is CAPE
Here is the Thursday CAPE map. A lot of energy north of our area. Perhaps a few strong storms will clip our northern counties. The severe weather concerns, however, should remain to our north. I will keep an eye on it.
Here is the Friday CAPE map
Higher numbers into our local area. We will need to monitor Friday for a few strong storms. Still early for certainties.
Saturday CAPE map. Unstable atmosphere. Some strong storms possible.
Sunday CAPE map. Unstable atmosphere.
Let’s look at the GFS model guidance. These maps show you where the GFS model believes rain might be falling. I just want to walk you through the coming days.
Remember, this is guidance and not gospel. It won’t be exact. Take the general idea from it.
We know we have some showers on Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Let’s move into late week and the weekend.
Here is the 1 am map for Friday. Notice the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms are to our north. That matches the CAPE maps, as well.
Here is the 7 pm Friday map
Perhaps some thunderstorms in our area. I will be watching to see if an MCS forms. MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes. They are common in the summer months.
Here is the Saturday precipitation map for 7 pm (graphic below)
I will be monitoring both Saturday and Sunday for increasing thunderstorm chances.
Here is the 1 pm Sunday weather map.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
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