.
.
Key Seven-Day Weather Information
Friday
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight. Saturday, as well. Monitor updates.
We do have showers and thunderstorms on the radar this morning. This activity will move east over the coming hours. That will likely leave a few showers and thunderstorms into the morning and early afternoon.
This afternoon and tonight, thunderstorm activity will increase yet again. Some of these thunderstorms could be severe, with damaging winds and perhaps tornadoes. Stay weather-aware.
Saturday
Another weather disturbance is expected to move through on Saturday and Saturday evening. There is some disagreement on the timing of thunderstorms on Saturday. The latest data could keep thunderstorms going into the evening hours. This will need to be monitored.
That means:
- More showers and thunderstorms
- A chance for a few strong and/or severe thunderstorms. The primary concern will be pockets of damaging wind gusts.
- Continued flooding concerns as additional heavy rain falls on already wet areas.
Sunday and Next Week
On Sunday, it will turn even hotter. Muggy, as well. This heat will continue into much of next week. Highs will be in the 90s. Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees are anticipated. Some type of heat advisory may be necessary. Either way, it will not feel good outside.
Those working outdoors may need to take breaks. Hydrate.
.
.
🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
June 26th through July 3rd
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: POSSIBLE. Some of the thunderstorms this afternoon into tomorrow could be severe. The concern will be damaging wind gusts. I can’t rule out a tornado this afternoon and evening. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: POSSIBLE.
I am monitoring the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some could be severe. I can’t rule out a tornado.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: MEDIUM.
Here is the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.
Don’t get too caught up in the colors. Just know the forecast. A few thunderstorms this afternoon into tomorrow evening could be severe, with damaging winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. There is a risk of a tornado this afternoon and evening, as well.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook
.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today through Saturday night.
2. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? SCATTERED ISSUES. Widespread issues are currently not anticipated.
Locally heavy rain could occur in thunderstorms. Typical for June. Scattered reports of flash flooding will be possible where thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same areas.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES/Likely. Possible on Saturday. Likely on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of next week.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Next week.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? POSSIBLE. Next week.
Here are the heat index values for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday
Sunday
.
Monday
.
Tuesday
.
Your body responds to the heat index. The heat index is more important than the actual temperature. More information about the heat index: Click here.
.
.
.
.
Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.
.
Here were the 5 AM temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
.
.
Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
* As is typical for summer, totals will vary greatly. Thunderstorms can double your rainfall totals. Keep that in mind.
* Some locations will receive much higher rain totals.
The track of each MCS (thunderstorm complex) will determine rainfall totals.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the five-day rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
.
.
.
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K Model
.
Hrrr Model
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
.
.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
.
https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
