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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today. Another chance Friday night into Saturday night. I will monitor next week.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. Thunderstorms are likely today. Ending this evening. Some storms could produce high wind and hail. Downburst winds will be possible with the most intense storms. Downburst winds can produce damage to trees and power lines (in small areas).
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. Locally heavy rain is possible with any thunderstorms that form.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values Saturday will range from 98 to 106 degrees. Locally higher. I will monitor next week.
7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.
8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
Heat Safety
Extended periods of heat will impact different people in different ways.
Don’t forget to check on the young and elderly during this hot weather.
We are experiencing a typical summer heatwave, but even typical heat can cause issues.
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Fire weather risk level.
Wednesday through Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 5. Medium risk.
Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Showers and storms will linger across the entire Quad State today before diminishing from the west this evening as a cold front passes through. Drier air will filter in behind the front for Thursday. Southerly winds return on Friday with heat and humidity building across the area along with chances of thunderstorms into the weekend.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of mainly evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise:
Moonset: 10:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Not as hot and not as humid.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 85° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 85° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 85° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 85° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:02 AM
Moonset: 11:40AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. High.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 12:29 AM
Moonset: 12:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 95°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 95°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 95°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 95°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 95°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 95°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 95°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 95°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 95°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 95°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 12:55 AM
Moonset: 2:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Thunderstorms today. Ending this evening.
- Some brief temperature relief Thursday behind the cold front. Then, hot weather returns.
- Watching another cold front Friday night into Saturday. A few storms will again be possible. Locally heavy.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Heavy rain fell last night across portions of the region. For example, portions of southeast Missouri received 4 to 7 inches of rain from an MCS. MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes. That is how we receive most of our summer rainfall.
MCS’s can bring damaging wind, as well. There were reports of trees down in southeast Missouri from the heavier storms. The NWS even issued a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings.
We are waking up to an active radar with numerous showers and thunderstorms. That will be the general rule for today. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. A small risk of severe weather.
7:30 am radar. This rain was moving east southeast.
Double click images on the weather blog to enlarge them.
Microburst winds will be possible today. Microbursts occur when thunderstorms collapse. All that air pushes downward and outward. This can cause damage to trees and power lines.
A microburst is a localized column of sinking air (downdraft) within a thunderstorm and is usually less than or equal to 2.5 miles in diameter. Microbursts can cause extensive damage at the surface, and in some instances, can be life-threatening.
Microbursts can be tricky when it comes to severe thunderstorm warnings. They tend to develop rapidly and dissipate rapidly. Sometimes during one radar scan.
Move indoors if thunderstorms threaten today. If you can hear thunder, then you should be indoors. That is a general rule.
A somewhat cooler and drier air-mass will filter into the region tonight and Thursday. It will feel nicer Thursday compared to recent days.
Yesterday, heat index values of 100 to 113 degrees were reported across the entire area. It was a hot one!
Thankfully, tonight and tomorrow will be a bit nicer.
Unfortunately, that won’t last long. The heat returns Friday into the weekend.
Another cold front pushes towards the region Friday night into Saturday night. Scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front. Some could be severe or intense with heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.
That front will stall out near the region on Sunday and Monday.
Somewhat cooler and drier air will briefly push into the region Sunday and Monday. Then, the heat returns by Tuesday.
Next week. Stormy?
I am closely watching next week for the potential of hot and muggy conditions combined with the possibility of MCS’s.
It should be noted that MCS’s are not known for being accurately forecasted more than a day in advance. They are tricky to pin down on track and intensity.
The overall pattern appears to favor the possibility of several MCS’s. Some could be intense with heavy rain, lightning, and strong wind gusts.
The placement of the heat ridge will determine where the MCS’s track next week. If the ridge is stronger, then we will bake. Hot and muggy. Dry. If we are on the edge of the heat ridge, then thunderstorms will be possible.
Monitor updates.
For week’s three and four. This has been updated. A slight shift southwest was made for the heat ridge. That places us very close to the ring of fire. Where thunderstorms occur on the edge of the heat ridge.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the FV3 Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the WRF Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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