June 25, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE TIME. IT WILL NOT RAIN EVERYWHERE EACH DAY. SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance through Friday. I will monitor Saturday and Sunday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. The risk of severe weather is low. A few storms could produce strong and gusty wind.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain. This could lead to isolated issues.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

June 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. A widely scattered thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild. Humid. A chance of a widely scattered thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
Moonrise: 11:49 PM
Moonset: 9:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / South IL 88° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 94° / West KY 88° to 94° / NW TN 88° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: ——
Moonset: 10:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:19 AM
Moonset: 11:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 01, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 72° / South IL 70° to 72 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° / West KY 70° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:45 AM
Moonset: 12:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

July 02 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: West 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm. A cold front may push through the region. If this happens then rain chances will end west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:09 AM
Moonset: 1:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

July 03, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Less humid. I will monitor rain chances in case the cold front stalls. If the cold front stalls then there will be showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None (unless the cold front stalls). If the cold front stalls then there will be showers and thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. I will monitor rain chances in case the cold front stalls. If the cold front stalls then there will be showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None (unless the cold front stalls). If the cold front stalls then there will be showers and thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: 1:34 AM
Moonset: 2:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

July 04, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. I will monitor rain chances in case the cold front stalls.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None (unless the cold front stalls). If the cold front stalls then there will be showers and thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. I will monitor rain chances in case the cold front stalls.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None (unless the cold front stalls). If the cold front stalls then there will be showers and thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: 1:59 AM
Moonset: 3:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

July 05, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. I will monitor rain chances in case the cold front stalls.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None (unless the cold front stalls). If the cold front stalls then there will be showers and thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. I will monitor rain chances in case the cold front stalls.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: East 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None (unless the cold front stalls). If the cold front stalls then there will be showers and thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: 2:27 AM
Moonset: 4:43 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

CLICK IMAGES TO ENLARGE THEM

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 29th: I am monitoring today into next week. There will be several periods of showers and thunderstorms. I can not rule out severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Unsettled weather.
2. Warm and muggy.
3. Scattered thunderstorms.

Weather advice:

A few strong storms are possible. Move indoors if lightning develops.

Locally heavy downpours could briefly flood roadways. Avoid flooded roadways.

What I know

Scattered showers and thunderstorms daily into much of next week.
Any storms that form could produce heavy downpours and lightning.
A low-end severe weather risk through that time-period, as well.

What I don’t know:

The exact placement of the frontal boundary that will enhance thunderstorm chances. It appears that this front will stay mostly to our north through Sunday.
Timing the highest thunderstorm chances next week as the frontal boundary attempts to push southward.

VERY heavy rain fell last night across portions of Missouri. We talked about this potential somewhere in the region.

There are reports of 6″ to 12″ of rain over a large chunk of Missouri (northern and portions of central). Major flash flooding is ongoing.

Thankfully, this is out of our region.

The Mississippi River will be rising.

Much of this rain fell in 12 hours or less.

Kansas City, Missouri, radar estimated rain totals. Check out the large area of 5 to 10 inches of rain (pockets of 12 inches).

St Louis, Missouri, radar estimated rain totals. What has fallen already. Notice that sharp cut-off.

Where heavy rain fell

The forecast is becoming clear. Less thunderstorm coverage vs more through Sunday. There will still be scattered thunderstorms, but the widespread heavy rain will be to our north.

A few days ago we were ground zero for three to six inches of rain. With each passing day that pushed further and further north. Trends were to push it further into central and northern Missouri and central and northern Illinois.

Those trends have stabilized and that appears to be where the heaviest rain will fall through Sunday.

That does not mean we won’t have periodic scattered thunderstorms. We definitely will. The good news is that widespread heavy rain and flooding won’t be an issue through at least Sunday or Monday in our region.

Could there be some locally heavy rain? Absolutely. Any thunderstorms that occur could produce downpours. Widespread flooding, however, appears unlikely.

We will need to monitor next week. The front should push a bit further southward. If that happens then chances of locally heavy rain will increase. For now, I will monitor trends and update accordingly.

It will be warm and muggy over the coming days. A tropical air-mass that will feed the flooding to our north.

Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points well into the 60s and 70s. Air you wear.

If you have outdoor plans through Sunday, then I would recommend checking our local and regional radars.

Let’s look at NOAA’s/WPC rainfall forecast. I can’t argue with these numbers. I think the biggest question would be today through Saturday.

48-hour rainfall totals forecast

72-hour rainfall totals forecast

120-hour rainfall totals forecast

WPC excessive rainfall/flash flood outlook.

Higher risk north vs south. You can see their current thinking.

Today

Tomorrow

Saturday

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.