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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Thursday through at least Monday night. I will need to monitor Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Isolated. June thunderstorms can produce down-burst winds. Although isolated, they can produce wind damage. That would be the exception and not the rule.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Slow moving storms could briefly flood commonly flooded roadways.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach caution or danger levels? Low end Friday into the weekend.
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Wednesday WBGT (F): 79° No concerns
Thursday WBGT (F): 80° No concerns
Friday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Saturday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Sunday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).
This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.
If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.
Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.
Something wrong on the page? Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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June 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Isolated morning rain showers over Kentucky and Tennessee. Mainly along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 80° to 85° South IL 80° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 60° to 65° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:50 AM
Moonset: 11:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 86° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 68° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:58 AM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. More humid. Peak rain chances during the afternoon heat of the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% to 30% TN ~ 20% to 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 86° to 90° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° SE MO 70° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 70° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph. Gustier during the evening.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 11:07 AM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Peak chances during the afternoon heat of the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 86° to 90° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 12:16 PM
Moonset: 12:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Peak chances during the afternoon heat of the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 86° to 90° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 1:24 PM
Moonset: 1:04 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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June 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Not much change. More of the same. Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Peak chances during the afternoon heat of the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 2:33 PM
Moonset: 1:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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June 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Not much change. More of the same. Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Peak chances during the afternoon heat of the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 86° to 90° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 3:43 PM
Moonset: 2:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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What is the UV index?
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- Heat will be the primary concern over the next couple of days. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s today through Saturday. Dew points won’t be all that high. That means it won’t feel horribly muggy.
- Monitoring shower/storm chances this coming weekend.
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through June 27th: At this time, the risk of severe weather appears to be low. I can’t rule out isolated high wind with thunderstorms Thursday into early next week. Typical for June.
Lightning will be the primary concern Thursday into early next week. Those with outdoor activities should monitor radars.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated June 24, 2020
If you have outdoor activities Thursday through early next week then you will want to monitor radars. Thunderstorms are in the forecast. Scattered. The main concern will be brief heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds. I would not cancel my plans. I would monitor updates/radars.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Turning quite a bit warmer over the coming days. Muggier, as well.
- Unsettled weather with several chances of thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend.
- Locally heavy rain where slow moving storms develop.
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A couple of showers formed overnight. At 8 AM, those showers were along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Otherwise, we are waking up to a dry morning across the rest of the region.
The big news over the coming days will be much warmer temperatures and the possibility of scattered weekend thunderstorms.
It is possible that some locations pick up very little in the form of rain. Others could easily top one inch. It is that time of the year. Summer thunderstorms.
Summer thunderstorms can produce an inch of rain in less than 20 minutes. They can also produce isolated wind damage from down-burst winds. Down-burst winds typically occur when thunderstorms are weakening. They collapse. When they collapse a surge of wind and rain spreads underneath of them. Occasionally, these winds can top 50 mph. Keep that in mind.
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I would not cancel any weekend plans. Monitor updates and radars. Plan on scattered thunderstorms.
The other big weather story will be the warmer temperatures. Expect upper 80s and lower 90s Thursday through at least Monday. Higher dew points will mean a return to muggy air.
Dew points in the low to mid 60s feels a bit humid (not bad). Dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s is more like Louisiana air. Muggy.
Here are the dew point readings today through Monday. Notice the 70s returning. Ack! Air you wear.
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
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PWAT values will also be very high. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. PWAT values in the 1.7 to 2.4″ range can produce an inch of rain in fifteen minutes.
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
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We also have the Saharan Dust. These dust storms occur just about every year. They come off of Africa and spread westward. This particular dust plume is quite a bit larger than usual.
The dust may reach our region over the coming days into the weekend. The dust can help produce brilliant sunsets.
There is some discussion about lower visibility and a haze in the air. We will have to wait and see how much of it holds together.
Yesterday, in Puerto Rico, visibility was reduced to three miles with plenty of dust in the air. This seems unlikely this far north and west. It is not out of the question, however, that we see the dust as a haze.
You can actually see the dust on the GOES 16 satellite.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 23rd through June 30th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers July 1st through July 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers July 7th through July 20th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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June temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
Precipitation outlook
July temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
July Precipitation
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You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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