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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance late Saturday night into Sunday night
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. A few storms could be intense Sunday. Isolated high wind would be the primary concern.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low-risk. There could be brief water issues where thunderstorms occur.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Saturday. Heat index values will approach or exceed 100 degrees. I will monitor next Friday into next weekend.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° / SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: Light southeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:35 AM
Moonset: 4:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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June 25, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot. More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98° / SE MO 94° to 98° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 94° to 98° / South IL 94° to 98° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 98° / West KY 94° to 98° / NW TN 94° to 98°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A slight chance of thunderstorm after 3 AM
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 12 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:03 AM
Moonset: 5:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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June 26, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Becoming partly sunny. Hot. A thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° / SE MO 86° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 86° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 90° / West KY 90° to 92° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west northwest 7 to 14 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a thunderstorm. Mainly during the evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Before 12 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 3:35 AM
Moonset: 6:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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June 27, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Nicer. Less humid. A pleasant day for the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 84° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° / West KY 80° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:14 AM
Moonset: 7:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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June 28, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Light northeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:56 AM
Moonset: 8:20 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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June 29, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 62° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Light southeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:45 AM
Moonset: 9:14 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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June 30, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot. More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:40 AM
Moonset: 9:56 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 1, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot. More humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Most likely after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 93° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 93° to 96° / South IL 93° to 96° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96° / West KY 93° to 96° / NW TN 93° to 96°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Winds will be from the: South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:38 AM
Moonset: 10:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 2, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Most likely after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 93° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 93° to 96° / South IL 93° to 96° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96° / West KY 93° to 96° / NW TN 93° to 96°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:39 AM
Moonset: 11:05 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 3, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Most likely after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 93° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 93° to 96° / South IL 93° to 96° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96° / West KY 93° to 96° / NW TN 93° to 96°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:39 AM
Moonset: 11:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 4, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Most likely after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 93° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 93° to 96° / South IL 93° to 96° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96° / West KY 93° to 96° / NW TN 93° to 96°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:41 AM
Moonset: 11:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through June 30th: A few storms could be intense Sunday. The primary concern would be high winds. Isolated hail risk. Thunderstorms won’t be widespread. They will be widely scattered. Many areas will simply remain dry.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Hot Saturday and Sunday.
- Cold front Sunday with scattered storms possible late Saturday night into Sunday evening.
- Cooler and less humid Monday through Wednesday.
- Hotter late next week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
It is lighting safety week. Just head indoors when lightning is around.
A hot weekend is on tap for our region.
Highs will be in the 90s with muggy conditions. Heat index values will once again approach 100 degrees and will likely exceed it in some areas.
The great news is that a cold front will slide into the region Saturday night into Sunday evening.
This front will deliver a chance of showers and thunderstorms. I doubt the precipitation will be widespread. Scattered thunderstorms are possible. Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
An isolated severe storm can’t be ruled out, but also isn’t likely.
This front will bring cooler air into the region by Monday. That cooler air will linger into the middle of the week. The air will be less muggy, as well.
Here are the dew points ahead of the front Sunday. Dew points are measure of moisture in the atmosphere. High dew points equal muggy air.
See the purple pooling ahead of the cold front. Dews in the 70s. Ick air. Air you wear.
Then, check out Monday’s dew points. Lower. In the 50s. That is comfortable air.
This map shows you the heat ridge. The ridge of high pressure.
This ridge of high pressure keeps returning to our region. Every time it arrives, we have hot air. That is what happens during the summer months when a ridge of high pressure builds into the region.
This is the Saturday and Sunday 500 mb height anomaly map.
Check out Monday night’s map. Northwest flow returns. Northwest flow usually means cooler and less humid air. A nicer air mass.
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The bad news is that we begin to heat back up late next week into next weekend. Highs will return to the 90s. It will become more humid, as well.
There are some signals that scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by next Friday or Saturday. Those chances may continue into a portion of the following week.
It is still too early to know how widespread the shower and thunderstorm activity will be. I will need to monitor trends. This is past the long range period, so confidence isn’t great.
Let’s hope we can get some rain in the region. Drought is spreading.
The EC ensemble average rainfall forecast for the next fifteen days isn’t hopeful. We can hope it is wrong.
Keep in mind, summer thunderstorms can produce isolated very heavy rain totals. I chose Paducah for this graphic. I looked at other cities and they are similar.
I posted these in yesterday’s update. I will post them again.
Double click the images. You can see a lot of yellow in our region. That has expanded since the last update.
You can see that “cooler” air arrive on these high temperature graphics. Check out Monday.
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 22ndthrough June 28th
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers June 24th through June 30th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are usually updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers July 1st through July 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers July 8th through July 21st
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
SUMMER OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
September Temperature Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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