Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
.
.
Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today into this evening. Another chance Tuesday into Wednesday evening. Another chance Saturday and Sunday. Another chance around next Tuesday/Wednesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. Storms Sunday afternoon and Tuesday night/Wednesday could be locally intense. I am watching another front next Saturday/Sunday. Too early to know if severe weather will be a concern.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. Locally heavy rain is possible with any thunderstorms that form over the coming week.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values today through Wednesday will range from 98 to 106 degrees. Locally higher. Days with more clouds will be a few degrees lower.
7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.
8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
Heat Safety
Extended periods of heat and cold will impact different people in different ways.
Don’t forget to check on the young and elderly during this hot weather.
We are experiencing a typical summer heatwave, but even typical heat can cause issues.
.
Fire weather risk level.
Sunday through Sunday night: 4. Low risk.
Monday: 4. Low risk.
Monday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
A weak boundary moves across the area today with winds switching from southwest to northwest through the day. A few showers or an isolated storm is possible early this morning through this afternoon, but the chance for a wetting rain in any one location is quite low. A greater chance for more widespread rain and storms arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. Good dispersion will be in place today and Tuesday due to stronger transport winds, while only fair dispersion is expected on Monday with weaker winds.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast Graphics
.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
.
.
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and muggy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could produce gusty winds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 95°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 95°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 95°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 95°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 95°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 95°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 95°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 95°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 95°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 95°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 0 to 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
.
Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance of mainly evening thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 10:21 PM
Moonset: 6:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
.
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 95°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 93° to 96°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 92° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 92° to 95°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 93° to 96°
Far western Kentucky ~ 93° to 96°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 93° to 96°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 0 to 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
.
Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast wind 0 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:00 PM
Moonset: 8:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
.
Tuesday Forecast: Heat alert. Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 2 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 95° to 100°
Southeast Missouri ~ 95° to 100°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 95° to 100°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 95° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 95° to 100°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 95° to 100°
Far western Kentucky ~ 95° to 100°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 95° to 100°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 95° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 95° to 100°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 108°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
.
Tuesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 11:33 PM
Moonset: 9:16 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
.
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
.
Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise:
Moonset: 10:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
-
- Hot weather. Peak heating day will be Tuesday.
- Showers and thunderstorm chances today.
- Watching a stronger front Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon. Scattered storms will accompany the front.
- Some brief temperature relief next Thursday/Friday behind the second cold front. Then, hot weather returns.
- Watching another cold front Saturday and Sunday. Another one next week. Both could bring storms back into the forecast.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
.
Beau’s Forecast Discussion
A cold front will push through the region today. This front will not bring any relief from the hot and muggy conditions.
We will have a few thunderstorms along the boundary. A couple of storms could be intense, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Rain totals will vary greatly. From nothing to an inch. Some locations will miss out.
Tomorrow and Tuesday will be the peak of this current heat wave. Highs will range from 94 to 98 degrees with heat index values of 98 to 108 degrees. Peak heat will be Tuesday ahead of our next front.
I can’t rule out a few storms Tuesday, but chances of thunderstorms will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. A few of the storms could be severe with large hail and damaging wind. The tornado risk appears low.
The front will usher in somewhat cooler air and lower dew points. It won’t feel quite as muggy Thursday.
The heat returns by Friday and Saturday and will linger into next week.
I am watching another cold front Saturday and Sunday and another one around next Tuesday/Wednesday. Both fronts could bring additional intense thunderstorms to the region.
July is shaping up hot. Our July forecast, for the nation as a whole, is for a top ten hottest on record. Perhaps top five. Locally, that will mean plenty of days with highs in the 90s. Muggy conditions, as well.
As long as the ground remains wet or has some moisture, then we will likely stay below 100 degrees. If we do dry out, then 100’s become increasingly likely.
Either way, dew points in the 70s will make it uncomfortable.
Dew points are what make it feel uncomfortable outside.
Here is the dew point forecast
Wednesday ahead of the front. Dews in the 70s.
Thursday dew points will be a bit lower behind the front
By Friday, dews pop back into the 70s.
The CDSv2 model is calling for a very hot July across America.
And, here is our July forecast.
For week’s three and four.
July Outlook
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
.
Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
.
Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
.
Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
.
Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
.
Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
.
.
The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
_______________________________________
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
.
This animation is the NAM Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the FV3 Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the HRRR Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the GFS Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the EC Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
