June 23/24, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance Sunday and Sunday evening.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. A few storms could be intense Sunday. Isolated high wind would be the primary concern.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low-risk. There could be brief water issues where thunderstorms occur.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Saturday. Heat index values will approach or exceed 100 degrees.

5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

June 23, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:44 AM
Moonset: 3:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 24, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° / SE MO 92° to 95° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° / West KY 92° to 95° / NW TN 92° to 95°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° / SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: Light southeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:35 AM
Moonset: 4:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 25, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot. More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98° / SE MO 94° to 98° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 94° to 98° / South IL 94° to 98° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 98° / West KY 94° to 98° / NW TN 94° to 98°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A slight chance of thunderstorm after 3 AM
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 12 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:03 AM
Moonset: 5:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 26, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Becoming partly sunny. Hot. A thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° / SE MO 86° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 86° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 90° / West KY 90° to 92° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west northwest 7 to 14 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a thunderstorm. Mainly during the evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Before 12 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 62° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 3:35 AM
Moonset: 6:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 27, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Nicer. Less humid. A pleasant day for the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 82° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 84° / South IL 82° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 56° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:14 AM
Moonset: 7:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 28, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Light northeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:56 AM
Moonset: 8:20 PM
The phase of the moon: New

June 29, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: Light southeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:45 AM
Moonset: 9:14 PM
The phase of the moon: New

June 30, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot. More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:40 AM
Moonset: 9:56 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

July 1, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot. More humid. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Most likely after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 93° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 93° to 96° / South IL 93° to 96° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96° / West KY 93° to 96° / NW TN 93° to 96°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Winds will be from the: South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:38 AM
Moonset: 10:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

July 2, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot. More humid. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Most likely after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 93° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 93° to 96° / South IL 93° to 96° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96° / West KY 93° to 96° / NW TN 93° to 96°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:39 AM
Moonset: 11:05 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

July 3, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot. More humid. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Most likely after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 93° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 93° to 96° / South IL 93° to 96° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96° / West KY 93° to 96° / NW TN 93° to 96°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:39 AM
Moonset: 11:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Today through June 26th: A few storms could be intense Sunday. The primary concern would be high winds. Isolated hail risk. Thunderstorms won’t be widespread. They will be widely scattered. Many areas will simply remain dry.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.

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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Thursday night into Friday night will be decent weather.
2. Hot Saturday and muggier.
3. Stronger cold front pushes into the region Sunday. Widely scattered thunderstorms possible.
4. Cooler next Monday and Tuesday.
5. Heat may build back in late next week.
6. Drought maps.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Forecast Discussion

A few locations received heavy downpours Wednesday. One severe thunderstorm warning was issued in southeast Missouri.

Not many received rain. Not enough. Many areas are dry. There have been numerous grass fires over the past week in the area.

Some areas are reporting the grass dying. We need rain.

Thursday night into Friday night will deliver decent weather. No extremes. Humidity won’t be too bad. Dry conditions.

It will turn hot again Saturday with highs in the 90s. Heat index values may flirt with 100 degrees or rise a bit above 100 degrees. A summer day for sure.

No rain concerns tonight through Saturday evening.

Late Saturday night a cold front will push into the region. This front will bring a chance of widely scattered thunderstorms to the area. Slightly better chances arrive Sunday and Sunday afternoon. A few of the storms could be intense.

Fingers crossed that some of you receive rain from that front.

The Sunday cold front will likely bring widely scattered storms and not widespread showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance has been showing around 15% to 25% chances. I don’t expect much and many areas will remain dry.

The bad news is that if you don’t receive rain Sunday then you may have to wait a while. There is currently no rain in the Monday through Friday forecast.

Some of the guidance has been hinting at showers and thunderstorms next Friday and Saturday. The GFS model mainly. I don’t have much confidence in those model solutions. Both the GFS and EC models have been performing poorly over the past few weeks. Which is odd, because the pattern isn’t that difficult to forecast.

Cooler and less humid will push into the region Sunday night and that will last into Wednesday. Dry conditions.

Temperatures will likely slowly warm each day next week. Monday and Tuesday will be the nicest days. Then, warmer Wednesday into the week. Late in the week the heat and humidity are likely to increase quite a bit. We will have to see if we once again start hitting 100+ heat index values.

The overall pattern seems to keep repeating itself. We have weak cold fronts followed by a return of the heat and dry conditions.

If this pattern continues then we will be in drought. We are already in flash drought in some counties. It will worsen if the pattern doesn’t shift.

It has been a long time since we have experienced a hot/dry summer. 2012 to be exact. We were due this type of weather.

The latest drought monitor shows that drought has expanded. Here are the latest graphics.

Double click the images. You can see a lot of yellow in our region. That has expanded since the last update.

You can see that “cooler” air arrive on these high temperature graphics. Check out Monday.

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

Double click on image to enlarge it

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers June 22ndthrough June 28th

Click on the image to expand it.

This outlook covers June 24th through June 30th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
.
This outlook covers July 1st through July 7th

Click on the image to expand it.

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 86 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers July 8th through July 21st
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.
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Precipitation outlook

Monthly Outlooks

SUMMER OUTLOOK

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

June Temperature Outlook

June Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

July Temperature Outlook

July Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

August Temperature Outlook

August Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

September Temperature Outlook

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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.