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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A 20% chance for an evening thunderstorm. Then a 30% chance for some thunderstorms moving in from the north and northwest after midnight (dying line of storms perhaps). Low confidence on that line surviving this far south. Warm and muggy. Lows in the 70’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Low risk for storms.
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and hot. A 30% chance for a thunderstorm. Heat index values above 100 degrees. Highs will be well into the 90’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Heat concerns. Heat index values will be above 100 degrees. If a storm pops up then heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A 40%-60% chance for thunderstorms. Warm and muggy. Lows in the 70’s. West/southwest winds at 5-10 mph becoming variable.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some storms are possible. Monitor radars just in case.
Is severe weather expected? Small chance.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds…where storms occur
Wednesday – Partly cloudy and hot. A slight chance for a few thunderstorms. Highs will be well into the 90’s. Variable winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% in the morning and then same in the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Heat concerns. Heat index values will be above 100 degrees.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A 20% chance for thunderstorms. Warm and muggy. Lows in the 70’s. South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds…where storms occur (if they occur).
Thursday – Partly cloudy and hot. A slight chance for a thunderstorm (better chances arrive Thursday night into Friday night). Highs will be well into the 90’s. Southwest winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% chance for storms.
What impact is expected? Heat concerns. Heat index values will be above 100 degrees.
Thursday night into Friday night – Thunderstorms becoming likely. Some heavy. Gusty winds with storms and vivid lightning.
Saturday and Sunday: Hopefully mostly dry and cooler. Saturday morning we may still deal with some storms, but confidence is low.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Hot
2. A few chances for storms over the next couple of days, but many will remain dry.
3. Cold front by the end of the week will bring relief
4. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
If you are tired of the hot weather then just stick around. I have better news for you. A cold front arrives this weekend and it will usher in lower humidity levels and a better air mass. I always hate to say cooler in late June or July. Cooler is a relative term when it comes to warm weather.
If you remember, the summer forecast was for a tug of war between the trough in the west and the ridge of heat in the east. My confidence was higher for Missouri and Illinois to pick up above normal rain vs say Kentucky and Tennessee.
Let’s look at June so far. The white line ended up being the battle line between above and below normal rainfall.
Temperatures have straight out been above normal. I thought we would see a bit more of a battle here. The first week of June was cooler than normal. But, since then…it has been warm. The white line divides where the above normal and normal to below normal temperatures have been. Most of the eastern half of the United States has been warmer than normal.
The rest of this week will bring hot weather. Daily highs will be in the 90’s through at least Thursday. Middle 90’s are a good bet. Heat index values will top 100 degrees.
We will have a couple of disturbances to deal with. When they approach and move through our region you can expect an uptick in thunderstorm chances. Most of the chances are going to be in the 20%-40% range. Higher % chances will arrive by Thursday night into Friday night.
Let’s look at the GFS model maps for precipitation. Pink and purple represent precipitation.
Tuesday afternoon you can see a boundary moving towards our region from the north. The pink/purple represents some storms sagging southward. You can see how it is lined up from west to east.
Images are from wright-weather.com GFS model
Tuesday evening you can see at least some chances for storms in the area.
Moving forward to Wednesday evening you can see some more storms popping up in the area. Low confidence on Wednesday’s activity.
Then by Friday morning. A lot of rain and storms near our region. This is with the main cold front that will push through over the weekend.
By Friday night we still have quite a bit of activity in the region.
By Saturday evening the storms should be pushing south of our region. I am hoping most of Saturday and Sunday are dry.
By Sunday the map is dry for our region
Let’s look at temperatures. Notice what happen on Friday into the weekend.
Highs for Tuesday
Highs for Wednesday
Highs for Thursday
Highs for Friday
Highs for Saturday
Highs for Sunday
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Heat this week followed by a cold front on Friday.
2. Below normal temperatures or at least somewhat cooler expected into the first week of July.
3. Heat may return after that time period? Low confidence on how the heat ridge spreads back into the region.
The big story will be the cold front on Friday into Friday night/Saturday morning. This front will sag through our region and usher in some drier air and cooler air (relatively speaking).
Temperatures are forecast to be below normal into the first part of July.
Here is the NCEP CFS 2 temperature forecast for June 27th through July 7th. Blue indicates it will average out below normal to much below normal (green).
Dew points will drop off considerably. Dew points is how meteorologists measure moisture in the air. The higher the number the more muggy it feels. Once you approach 70 degrees it is muggy. Check out today’s dew points. Now, compare those to later this weekend. They drop off quite a bit. wright-weather.com dew point map
Below is the weekend dew point map
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Any storms that fire up between now and Thursday will produce locally heavy rainfall. Many will remain dry, but some will end up soaked. Summer pattern.
As always, rainfall totals will vary greatly. Same as the past month. Some places will have torrential downpours and neighboring counties will have less. The best chance for big totals between now and Wednesday morning would be southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Further south you travel the less confidence in rainfall.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE. I almost put two. Maybe an isolated severe storm.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Low risk for severe storms. Some storms possible…storms could be on the strong side
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Low risk for severe storms. Some storms possible…storms could be on the strong side
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Some storms are possible (especially Thursday night)
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Some storms are possible
Heat is the main concern over the next few days. Heat index values of 100+ will be common on Monday through Thursday.
As always, storms that form in this kind of heat can produce frequent lightning, heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds. Isolated down bursts.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card for the coming days will be the rain chances. Who will end up under a heavy downpour vs areas that remain just plain old hot and dry.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
