June 22, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

CAMPING FORECAST. This will vary area-wide. Please see the area by area forecast further down in the blog.

48-hour forecast

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Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Thursday afternoon into at least Monday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Thursday into Monday. Check back for updated forecasts.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain Thursday into at least Monday. I will monitor the weekend. Typically, any thunderstorms this time of the year produce locally heavy rain.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Not at this time.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

June 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Nicer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant conditions.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 54° to 56° / South IL 54° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast to east at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:18 PM
Moonset: 3:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A nice day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:33 PM
Moonset: 4:19 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Confidence in the Thursday night forecast is low. A complex of thunderstorms may move into the region from the north. There is uncertainty surrounding the timing and strength of this thunderstorm complex. Monitor updates.
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some increase in afternoon clouds. I will be tracking a thunderstorm complex moving south southeast through northern Missouri. This could bring some precipitation into at least portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the afternoon hours. Warmer. More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. I will monitor our northern counties.
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon (MO/IL)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. I will monitor our northern counties for wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low confidence in the rain chances Thursday night. Monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (monitor)
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 8:43 PM
Moonset: 5:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

June 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:44 PM
Moonset: 6:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the latest forecasts.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:35 PM
Moonset: 7:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 11:15 PM
Moonset: 8:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 11:49 PM
Moonset: 9:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

CLICK IMAGES TO ENLARGE THEM

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 29th: I am monitoring Thursday into Monday. There will be several periods of showers and thunderstorms. I can not rule out severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Nice weather today into Thursday.
2. Monitoring Thursday night into the weekend for thunderstorms to return.
3. Locally heavy rain likely this weekend.

Weather advice:

Monitor updated forecasts concerning thunderstorms later this week.

Enjoy today, tomorrow, and Thursday. It will be nice!

It will be cooler today. Less humid. Plenty of sunshine is anticipated. Very nice for late June. This will last into Wednesday.

We will begin to warm up Thursday and Friday. Warmer and increasingly humid. This will mark a change in the weather pattern. Back to unsettled.

A series of disturbances will deliver daily chances of precipitation beginning Thursday night and continuing into early next week.

What I know

Showers and thunderstorms will return to radar as soon as Thursday afternoon and night.
Locally heavy rain will impact some of my forecast counties. Totals could exceed three inches between Thursday and Monday (in some locations).
A low-end severe weather risk through that time-period, as well.

What I don’t know:

The exact timing of the thunderstorm complexes Thursday and Thursday night (it is possible most of the region remains dry during that time-period).
The placement of the heaviest rain bands. Right now, that favors Missouri and Illinois vs Kentucky/Tennessee. At least early on in the event.

It is not going to rain all of the time. We are going to have dry periods. And, for that matter, some areas may not receive any rain at all on some of the days in question.

The entire rain circus will surround the placement of a stationary front. The front will be the focus of the concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity.

Where the front stalls will experience the heaviest rain. It is also likely that the front will waver about.

Model guidance shows one disturbance as early as Thursday afternoon and night. That would approach our northern counties from northeast Missouri and Central Illinois. That would be an MCS. An MCS is a thunderstorm complex. They are actually responsible for much of our summer rains.

How far south it survives, if it does develop, remains a question. I have at least a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night (higher chances the further north you travel).

Friday through Monday will be warm, humid, and unsettled. We will have daily chances of showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.

Rain totals from Thursday night into Monday will vary greatly. This is typical for late June. As you know, one county can pick up several inches of rain and neighboring counites pick up very little.

A good example of this is what happened Monday. Some locations received no measurable rain. Other locations received three to five inches!

I will need to adjust the precipitation probability numbers as we approach the weekend.

Do not be surprised if someone picks up two to three (or more) inches of rain between Thursday and Monday.

If you have outdoor plans this weekend then you will want to monitor updated forecasts. It likely won’t rain all of the time. It will, however, likely rain somewhere in the region each day.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.